新形势下中国新型货币政策工具的传导机制与调控效应
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摘要
从经济周期和货币政策目标的角度明确了新形势下中国新型货币政策工具的内涵和功能,基于总量管理和结构优化的视角阐释新型货币政策工具的理论逻辑,分析了新型货币政策工具对传统货币政策传导的改进机制,并运用月度数据构建SVAR模型,通过脉冲响应分类检验具体新型货币政策工具对利率、信贷、投资和经济产出的调控效应,研究发现,新型货币政策工具在传统货币政策的基础上拓展货币政策调控的边际效应与有效性边界,具备"总量管理"和"结构优化"功能,兼具"数量型"和"价格型"的调控特征;新型货币政策工具能够引导市场利率下降,其中中期工具相较短期工具引导利率下降的效果更优;新型货币政策工具在短期有效刺激信贷、投资和经济产出,但是欠缺长期影响能力。
From the perspectives of economic cycles and monetary policy objectives,we analyzed the connotations and functions of China' s new type of monetary policy instruments in the new environment. From the perspectives of total quantity management and structure optimization,we shed light on the theoretical logic of emerging monetary policy instruments and analyzed the mechanism by which new monetary policy instruments have improved the transmission of traditional monetary policies. Using an SVAR model based on monthly data,we investigated the regulating effect of different sorts of new monetary policy instruments on interest rates,credit,investment,and economic output through impulse-response analysis. The findings are summarized as follows: 1) based on traditional monetary policies,new monetary policy instruments have extended the marginal effects and effectiveness boundaries of monetary policy regulation,provided functions such as total quantity management and structure optimization,and possessed the characteristics of both quantity-oriented regulation and price-oriented regulation; 2) new monetary policy instruments could lead market interest rates to decline,or to be more specific,medium-term instruments could lead market interest rates to decline more significantly than short-term instruments;3) new monetary policy instruments could effectively stimulate credit,investment,and economic output in the short term,but could not do so in the long term.
From the perspectives of economic cycles and monetary policy objectives,we analyzed the connotations and functions of China' s new type of monetary policy instruments in the new environment. From the perspectives of total quantity management and structure optimization,we shed light on the theoretical logic of emerging monetary policy instruments and analyzed the mechanism by which new monetary policy instruments have improved the transmission of traditional monetary policies. Using an SVAR model based on monthly data,we investigated the regulating effect of different sorts of new monetary policy instruments on interest rates,credit,investment,and economic output through impulse-response analysis. The findings are summarized as follows: 1) based on traditional monetary policies,new monetary policy instruments have extended the marginal effects and effectiveness boundaries of monetary policy regulation,provided functions such as total quantity management and structure optimization,and possessed the characteristics of both quantity-oriented regulation and price-oriented regulation; 2) new monetary policy instruments could lead market interest rates to decline,or to be more specific,medium-term instruments could lead market interest rates to decline more significantly than short-term instruments;3) new monetary policy instruments could effectively stimulate credit,investment,and economic output in the short term,but could not do so in the long term.
引文
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[13]徐忠.中国稳健货币政策的实践经验与货币政策理论的国际前沿[J].金融研究,2017(1).
[14]中国人民银行营业管理部课题组,李宏瑾.中央银行利率引导——理论、经验分析与中国的政策选择[J].金融研究,2013(9).
[15]陶士贵,陈建宇.新常态下中国货币政策工具创新的有效性研究——基于FAVAR模型的比较分析[J].金融经济学研究,2016(4).
[16]彭俞超,方意.结构性货币政策、产业结构升级与经济稳定[J].经济研究,2016(7).
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(1)篇幅所限,相关过程未在文中列示。
[2]Domanski D.,Moessner R.,and Nelson W. R.,2014. Central Banks as Lender of Last Resort:Experiences During the 2007-2010 Crisis and Lessons for the Future. Bis Papers Chapters,Vol. 79:43-75.
[3]Borio C.,and Disyatat P.,2010. Unconventional Monetary Policies:An Appraisal. The Manchester School,Vol. 78,No. s1:53-89.
[4]Bauer D.,and Neely J.,2012. International Channels of the Fed's Unconventional Monetary Policy. Journal of International Money&Finance,Vol. 44,No. 3:24-46.
[5]Engen E. M.,Laubach T.,and Reifschneider D. L.,2015. The Macroeconomic Effects of the Federal Reserve's Unconventional Monetary Policies. Finance and Economics Discussion Series,Vol. 5:1-54.
[6]Fischer S.,2016. The Lender of Last Resort Function in the United Sates. Speech at the Conference of the Lender of Last Resort:An International Perspective,Washington,Feb. 10.
[7]张成思,计兴辰.中国货币政策框架转型:分歧与共识[J].金融评论,2017(6).
[8]孙国峰,蔡春春.货币市场利率、流动性供求与中央银行流动性管理——对货币市场利率波动的新分析框架[J].经济研究,2014(12).
[9]余振,顾浩,吴莹.结构性货币政策工具的作用机理与实施效果——以中国央行抵押补充贷款操作为例[J].世界经济研究,2016(3).
[10]潘敏,刘姗.中央银行借贷便利货币政策工具操作与货币市场利率[J].经济学动态,2018(3).
[11]胡岳峰.关于中国新兴货币政策工具“常备借贷便利”的解析与国际比较[J].金融经济,2015(1).
[12]姜汝楠,程逸飞.对央行创设抵押补充贷款货币政策工具的思考[J].价格理论与实践,2014(8).
[13]徐忠.中国稳健货币政策的实践经验与货币政策理论的国际前沿[J].金融研究,2017(1).
[14]中国人民银行营业管理部课题组,李宏瑾.中央银行利率引导——理论、经验分析与中国的政策选择[J].金融研究,2013(9).
[15]陶士贵,陈建宇.新常态下中国货币政策工具创新的有效性研究——基于FAVAR模型的比较分析[J].金融经济学研究,2016(4).
[16]彭俞超,方意.结构性货币政策、产业结构升级与经济稳定[J].经济研究,2016(7).
[17]Bindseil U.,Weller B.,and Wuertz F.,2010. Central Bank and Commercial Banks'Liquidity Management-What is the Relationship? Economic Notes,Vol. 32,No. 1:37-66.
(1)篇幅所限,相关过程未在文中列示。