长江经济带物流业效率增长影响因素
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摘要
首先基于非期望产出的Super-SBM模型和Malmquist指数模型,全面测度长江经济带2007—2016年物流行业增长效率,并在此基础上运用面板Tobit模型,实证研究其物流业效率增长的影响因素。结果显示:①长江经济带2007—2016年物流效率呈现波动上升后缓慢下降态势,其中下游地区物流效率高于中、上游地区;物流全要素生产率、技术变动和效率变动总体呈现下降趋势,技术变动是影响全要素生产率变动的核心因素。②影响物流效率增长的因素存在区域差距。市场一体化指数、产业集聚、政府干预以及对外开放对整个长江经济带的物流效率及变动产生重要影响。在上游地区,影响物流效率增长的因素主要为产业集聚、经济密度和交通密度;中游地区的市场一体化指数、产业集聚、政府干预、经济密度、对外开放以及交通密度均是影响物流效率增长的重要因素,而对于下游地区,市场一体化指数、政府干预、经济密度和交通密度与物流效率增长关系密切。最后,针对研究结果,给出提高物流效率的政策建议,包括推进市场一体化建设,优化区域产业布局,扩大对外开放水平及打造立体式交通运输网络体系。
Regional integration can increase growth efficiency by promoting factor mobility, structural upgrading, and strengthening regional cooperation. Firstly, based on the Super-SBM model of unexpected output and Malmquist index model, this article comprehensive;y measures the growth efficiency of logistics industry in the Yangtze River Economic Belt from 2007 to 2016. On this basis, it uses the panel Tobit model to empirically study the factors affecting the efficiency growth of logistics industry.The results show that: 1) From 2007 to 2016, the logistics efficiency of the Yangtze River Economic Belt shows a slow decline trend after fluctuation, in which the logistics efficiency of the lower reaches is higher than that of the middle and upper reaches; the total factor productivity, technological change and efficiency change of logistics generally show a downward trend, and technological change is the core factor affecting the total factor productivity change. 2) There are regional disparities in the factors affecting the growth of logistics efficiency. Market integration index, industrial agglomeration, government intervention and external opening have an important impact on the logistics efficiency and change of the whole Yangtze River Economic Belt. In the upstream region, the main factors affecting the growth of logistics efficiency are industrial agglomeration, economic density and traffic density; in the middle region, market integration index, industrial agglomeration, government intervention, economic density, opening up and traffic density are all important factors affecting the growth of logistics efficiency; while in the downstream region, market integration index, government intervention, economic density and traffic density are important factors affecting the growth of logistics efficiency. The traffic density is closely related to the growth of logistics efficiency.Finally, according to the research results, the policy suggestions to improve logistics efficiency are promoting market integration; optimizing regional industrial layout; expanding the level of opening up and building a three-dimensional transportation network system.
Regional integration can increase growth efficiency by promoting factor mobility, structural upgrading, and strengthening regional cooperation. Firstly, based on the Super-SBM model of unexpected output and Malmquist index model, this article comprehensive;y measures the growth efficiency of logistics industry in the Yangtze River Economic Belt from 2007 to 2016. On this basis, it uses the panel Tobit model to empirically study the factors affecting the efficiency growth of logistics industry.The results show that: 1) From 2007 to 2016, the logistics efficiency of the Yangtze River Economic Belt shows a slow decline trend after fluctuation, in which the logistics efficiency of the lower reaches is higher than that of the middle and upper reaches; the total factor productivity, technological change and efficiency change of logistics generally show a downward trend, and technological change is the core factor affecting the total factor productivity change. 2) There are regional disparities in the factors affecting the growth of logistics efficiency. Market integration index, industrial agglomeration, government intervention and external opening have an important impact on the logistics efficiency and change of the whole Yangtze River Economic Belt. In the upstream region, the main factors affecting the growth of logistics efficiency are industrial agglomeration, economic density and traffic density; in the middle region, market integration index, industrial agglomeration, government intervention, economic density, opening up and traffic density are all important factors affecting the growth of logistics efficiency; while in the downstream region, market integration index, government intervention, economic density and traffic density are important factors affecting the growth of logistics efficiency. The traffic density is closely related to the growth of logistics efficiency.Finally, according to the research results, the policy suggestions to improve logistics efficiency are promoting market integration; optimizing regional industrial layout; expanding the level of opening up and building a three-dimensional transportation network system.
引文
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[10]郭子雪,张雅辉,黄新.基于DEA模型的京津冀区域物流效率评价研究[J].数学的实践与认识,2018,48(24):41-50.
[11]李谭,王利,王瑜.辽宁省港口物流效率及其与腹地经济协同发展研究[J].经济地理,2012,32(9):108-113.
[12] Antonio Rizzi,Eleonora Bottani,Giuseppe Vignali. Improving logistics efficiency of industrial districts:a framework and case study in the food sector[J]. International Journal of Logistics Research and Applications,2015,18(5):402-423.
[13]韩剑尘,夏涛.多维视角下我国物流企业生产效率异质性研究[J].华东经济管理,2016,30(3):97-101.
[14]蒋天颖,史亚男.宁波市物流企业空间格局演化及影响因素[J].经济地理,2015,35(10):130-138.
[15]王琴梅,谭翠娥.对西安市物流效率及其影响因素的实证研究——基于DEA模型和Tobit回归模型的分析[J].软科学,2013,27(5):70-74.
[16]刘勇.物流业全要素能源效率评价及其影响因素分析[J].统计与决策,2014(1):66-68.
[17]钟畅.长江经济带物流效率及其影响因素研究[D].重庆:重庆大学,2017.
[18]林毅夫,蔡昉,李周.比较优势与发展战略——对“东亚奇迹”的再解释[J].中国社会科学,1999(5):4-20.
[19]陆铭,陈钊.分割市场的经济增长——为什么经济开放可能加剧地方保护?[J].经济研究,2009,44(3):42-52.
[20]陈阳,唐晓华.产业集聚对制造业效率的影响研究——基于区域互动的视角[J].财经论丛,2019(2):12-20.
[21]刘徐方.外商直接投资、政府支出对中国技术进步效应的经验分析[J].工业技术经济,2016(3):31-35.
[22] P A R Sley D C,Wei S J. Explaining the border effect:the role of exchange rate variability,shipping costs,and geography[J].Journal of International Economics,2001,55(1):87-105.
[23]俞佳立,钱芝网.长江经济带物流产业效率的时空演化及其影响因素[J].经济地理,2018,38(8):108-115.
[24]王育红,刘琪.基于Super-SBM模型的长江经济带物流效率测度研究[J].华东经济管理,2017,31(5):72-77.
[25]张雪青.“一带一路”区域物流协同发展分析[J].统计与决策,2016(8):108-110.
[26]李娟,王琴梅.基于效率视角的河南省物流业发展质量研究[J].管理学刊,2019(2):25-35.
[27] Tone K. A slacks-haled measure of efficiency in data envelopment analysis[J]. European Jounal of Operational Research,2001,130(3):498-509.
[28] Tone K. A Slacks-haled measure of super-efficiency in data envelopment analysis[J]. European Journal of Operational Research,2002,143(1):32-41.
[29] Fare R,Grosskopf S,Margaritis D. Efficiency and Productivity:Malmquist and More in the Measurement of Productive Efficiency and Productivity Growth[M]. New York:Oxford University Press,2008.
[2] Chunhua Ju,Changbing Jiang,Mingyao Chen. Research logistics network infrastructures based on DEA-PCA approach:Evidence from on the Yangtze river delta region in China[J]. Journal of Shanghai Jiaotong University,2012(1):98-107.
[3] Markovits-Somogyi R,Bokor Zoltán. Assessing the logistics efficiency of European countries by using the DEA-PC methodology[J]. Transport,2014,29(2):137-145.
[4]张定,曹卫东,范娇娇,等.长三角城市物流发展效率的时空格局演化特征与机制[J].经济地理,2014,34(8):103-110.
[5]李涛,曹小曙,杨文越,等.中国区域综合运输效率的测度及其时空演化[J].地理科学,2015,35(2):168-175.
[6]刘承良,管明明.低碳约束下中国物流业效率的空间演化及影响因素[J].地理科学,2017,37(12):1 805-1 814.
[7]张竟轶,张竟成.基于三阶段DEA模型的我国物流效率综合研究[J].管理世界,2016(8):178-179.
[8]李健,田丽,王颖.考虑非期望产出的区域物流产业效率空间效应分析[J].干旱区资源与环境,2018,32(8):67-73.
[9]王燕,刘婷.碳排放约束下我国区域物流能源效率及影响因素研究[J].生态经济,2018,34(10):14-18.
[10]郭子雪,张雅辉,黄新.基于DEA模型的京津冀区域物流效率评价研究[J].数学的实践与认识,2018,48(24):41-50.
[11]李谭,王利,王瑜.辽宁省港口物流效率及其与腹地经济协同发展研究[J].经济地理,2012,32(9):108-113.
[12] Antonio Rizzi,Eleonora Bottani,Giuseppe Vignali. Improving logistics efficiency of industrial districts:a framework and case study in the food sector[J]. International Journal of Logistics Research and Applications,2015,18(5):402-423.
[13]韩剑尘,夏涛.多维视角下我国物流企业生产效率异质性研究[J].华东经济管理,2016,30(3):97-101.
[14]蒋天颖,史亚男.宁波市物流企业空间格局演化及影响因素[J].经济地理,2015,35(10):130-138.
[15]王琴梅,谭翠娥.对西安市物流效率及其影响因素的实证研究——基于DEA模型和Tobit回归模型的分析[J].软科学,2013,27(5):70-74.
[16]刘勇.物流业全要素能源效率评价及其影响因素分析[J].统计与决策,2014(1):66-68.
[17]钟畅.长江经济带物流效率及其影响因素研究[D].重庆:重庆大学,2017.
[18]林毅夫,蔡昉,李周.比较优势与发展战略——对“东亚奇迹”的再解释[J].中国社会科学,1999(5):4-20.
[19]陆铭,陈钊.分割市场的经济增长——为什么经济开放可能加剧地方保护?[J].经济研究,2009,44(3):42-52.
[20]陈阳,唐晓华.产业集聚对制造业效率的影响研究——基于区域互动的视角[J].财经论丛,2019(2):12-20.
[21]刘徐方.外商直接投资、政府支出对中国技术进步效应的经验分析[J].工业技术经济,2016(3):31-35.
[22] P A R Sley D C,Wei S J. Explaining the border effect:the role of exchange rate variability,shipping costs,and geography[J].Journal of International Economics,2001,55(1):87-105.
[23]俞佳立,钱芝网.长江经济带物流产业效率的时空演化及其影响因素[J].经济地理,2018,38(8):108-115.
[24]王育红,刘琪.基于Super-SBM模型的长江经济带物流效率测度研究[J].华东经济管理,2017,31(5):72-77.
[25]张雪青.“一带一路”区域物流协同发展分析[J].统计与决策,2016(8):108-110.
[26]李娟,王琴梅.基于效率视角的河南省物流业发展质量研究[J].管理学刊,2019(2):25-35.
[27] Tone K. A slacks-haled measure of efficiency in data envelopment analysis[J]. European Jounal of Operational Research,2001,130(3):498-509.
[28] Tone K. A Slacks-haled measure of super-efficiency in data envelopment analysis[J]. European Journal of Operational Research,2002,143(1):32-41.
[29] Fare R,Grosskopf S,Margaritis D. Efficiency and Productivity:Malmquist and More in the Measurement of Productive Efficiency and Productivity Growth[M]. New York:Oxford University Press,2008.