京津冀都市圈人口变动与城市化的空间发展态势——基于ROXY指数分析
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摘要
本文以都市圈为空间地域单元,以全国人口普查数据为基础,综合运用多种计量方法系统分析京津冀都市圈人口变动与空间分布特征,并构建ROXY指数方法,探讨京津冀都市圈整体人口变动态势及核心城市北京、天津的城市化发展阶段及空间演化路径。研究表明,目前京津冀都市圈人口变动呈加速态势,城镇体系呈"双核"格局,各区域人口贡献度差异悬殊,人口空间分布不均等,人口城市化度稳步提升;京津冀都市圈总体上处于人口向空间分散的趋势变动,人口郊区化特征逐渐显现;北京和天津分别处于人口郊区化向逆城市化的过度阶段及人口城市化向郊区化的过渡阶段,都市圈的核心城市人口城市化演进更加迅速和成熟。
This paper,based on the city circle for the space geographical unit,on the basis of the national population census data,using synthetically various measurement methods,systematically analyzes population changes and spatial distribution characteristics of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei metropolis circle,and building the ROXY index method,discusses the whole population change trend of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei metropolis circle and urbanization development stage and space evolution path of Beijing and Tianjin. The research shows that at present,metropolitan area's population change in Beijing-Tianjin-He Bei presents accelerated trend,urban system is "dual-core" pattern,internal population contribution difference is huge,population spatial distribution inequality is different,population urbanization degree is rising steadily; on the whole,Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei metropolis circle is in the trend of population dispersal to space changes,emerging population suburbanization characteristics; Beijing and Tianjin are respectively is at the stage of population suburbanization to counter urbanization and population urbanization to population suburbanization.
This paper,based on the city circle for the space geographical unit,on the basis of the national population census data,using synthetically various measurement methods,systematically analyzes population changes and spatial distribution characteristics of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei metropolis circle,and building the ROXY index method,discusses the whole population change trend of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei metropolis circle and urbanization development stage and space evolution path of Beijing and Tianjin. The research shows that at present,metropolitan area's population change in Beijing-Tianjin-He Bei presents accelerated trend,urban system is "dual-core" pattern,internal population contribution difference is huge,population spatial distribution inequality is different,population urbanization degree is rising steadily; on the whole,Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei metropolis circle is in the trend of population dispersal to space changes,emerging population suburbanization characteristics; Beijing and Tianjin are respectively is at the stage of population suburbanization to counter urbanization and population urbanization to population suburbanization.
引文
1 .Tatsuhiko KAWASHIMA,Atsumi FUKATSU and Noriyuki HIRAOKA.Re-urbanization of Population in the Tokyo Metropolitan Area:ROXY-index/Spatial-cycle Analysis for the Period 1947~2005[C].学习院大学经济论集,2007,44(1):364~376
2 .JamesR.Elliott.Cycles Within the System:Metropolitanization and Internal Migration in the U.S.,1965~1990[C].CDE Working Paper,University of WisconsinMadison,1995:175~184
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4 .Patrick Rérat.The New Demographic Growth of Cities:The Case of Re-urbanization in Switzerland[J].Urban Study,2012,(5):69~81
5 .毛新雅,王红霞.城市群区域人口城市化的空间路径——基于长三角和京津冀ROXY指数方法的分析[J].人口与经济,2014,(4):43~49
6 .任远,张放.城市化阶段和大城市地区不同区域人口空间变动[J].人口学刊,2006,(4):35~39
7 .孙铁山,王兰兰,李国平.北京都市区人口就业分布与空间结构优化[J].地理学报,2012,(6):830~838
8 .封志明,杨玲,等.京津冀都市圈人口集疏过程与空间格局分析[J].地球信息科学学报,2013,(1):11 ~16
9 .王春兰,杨上广.中国区域发展与人口再分布新态势[J].地域研究与开发,2014,(1):158~163
10 .张秀英,谷晓蕾.基于GM(1,1)模型的东北三省人口——经济系统协调发展研究[J].工业技术经济,2013,(1):20~25
11 .张耀军,刘沁,韩雪.北京城市人口空间分布变动研究[J].人口研究,2013,(6):52~61
12 .邓羽,刘盛和,等.中国省际人口空间格局演化的分析方法与实证[J].地理学报,2014,(10):1473~1486
13 .李培,邓慧慧.京津冀地区人口迁移特征及其影响因素分析[J].人口与经济,2007,(6):59~63
14 .秦佳,李建民.中国人口城镇化的空间差异与影响因素[J].人口研究,2013,(2):26~39
1本文研究京津冀都市圈的范围包括北京、天津及河北的行政区总面积,各区域的总人口均为该地区的常住人口,数据以全国人口普查数据为基础,结合相关年份的《中国人口与就业统计年鉴》及北京、天津和河北的统计年鉴,按照统一口径进行统计。
2 .JamesR.Elliott.Cycles Within the System:Metropolitanization and Internal Migration in the U.S.,1965~1990[C].CDE Working Paper,University of WisconsinMadison,1995:175~184
3 .Champion,A.The Changing Nature of Urban and Rural Areas in the UK and Other European Countries[C].United Nations Expert Group Meeting on Population Distribution,Urbanization,Internal Migration and Development,New York:United Nations,2008:203~209
4 .Patrick Rérat.The New Demographic Growth of Cities:The Case of Re-urbanization in Switzerland[J].Urban Study,2012,(5):69~81
5 .毛新雅,王红霞.城市群区域人口城市化的空间路径——基于长三角和京津冀ROXY指数方法的分析[J].人口与经济,2014,(4):43~49
6 .任远,张放.城市化阶段和大城市地区不同区域人口空间变动[J].人口学刊,2006,(4):35~39
7 .孙铁山,王兰兰,李国平.北京都市区人口就业分布与空间结构优化[J].地理学报,2012,(6):830~838
8 .封志明,杨玲,等.京津冀都市圈人口集疏过程与空间格局分析[J].地球信息科学学报,2013,(1):11 ~16
9 .王春兰,杨上广.中国区域发展与人口再分布新态势[J].地域研究与开发,2014,(1):158~163
10 .张秀英,谷晓蕾.基于GM(1,1)模型的东北三省人口——经济系统协调发展研究[J].工业技术经济,2013,(1):20~25
11 .张耀军,刘沁,韩雪.北京城市人口空间分布变动研究[J].人口研究,2013,(6):52~61
12 .邓羽,刘盛和,等.中国省际人口空间格局演化的分析方法与实证[J].地理学报,2014,(10):1473~1486
13 .李培,邓慧慧.京津冀地区人口迁移特征及其影响因素分析[J].人口与经济,2007,(6):59~63
14 .秦佳,李建民.中国人口城镇化的空间差异与影响因素[J].人口研究,2013,(2):26~39
1本文研究京津冀都市圈的范围包括北京、天津及河北的行政区总面积,各区域的总人口均为该地区的常住人口,数据以全国人口普查数据为基础,结合相关年份的《中国人口与就业统计年鉴》及北京、天津和河北的统计年鉴,按照统一口径进行统计。