中国城市化质量综合评价及其时空特征
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摘要
改革开放以来,中国城市发展取得了举世瞩目的成就,常住人口城市化率已经超过了世界平均水平,然而这种高速发展也带来了"半城市化"、城乡发展不平衡、城市发展缺乏可持续性等一系列问题,其根源是对城市化内涵认识不足,仅考虑了城市化"量"的层面,而忽视了对城市化"质"的考量。基于此,文章通过探索城市化质量的内涵,从城市自身发展质量、城市化推进效率、城乡一体化程度和城市可持续发展能力四个方面构建了城市化质量的综合评价指标体系。首先运用"纵横向"拉开档次法对中国及各省市1985—2015年的城市化质量进行综合评价与分析,然后采用探索性空间数据分析方法揭示各地区城市化质量的时空关联演变特征,结果发现:(1)中国城市化质量随时间推移呈逐步提高的趋势,但是地区之间发展差距较大,东部沿海地区城市化质量明显优于中西部地区。(2)在反映城市化质量的四个维度中,城市自身发展质量较好,但是城市经济发展质量和环境质量有待改善;城市化推进效率受资本、土地、能源利用效率的制约,略微有所下降;城乡一体化程度呈现出先恶化后改善的趋势;城市可持续发展能力呈下降趋势。(3)城市化质量呈现出较明显的全局空间正相关性,但是局部空间集聚类型存在明显的东西差异,高-高集聚区数量增多,集中在东部沿海地区,低-低集聚区处于动态变化中,分布在西部地区,低-高集聚区主要位于河北、安徽、江西以及贵州等地,高-低集聚区则包括新疆、湖北、四川等。最后指出,中国城市化质量的提升必须综合考虑各种因素,一方面要因地制宜地制定差异化的城市化策略,另一方面要优化空间布局,发挥地区之间的协同作用,促进城市化质量的全面提升。
China has experienced an unprecedentedly rapid urbanization since the reform and opening-up. The urbanization rate in China has surpassed the world average level. However,the rapid development of urbanization in China has also brought a series of problems,such as ‘incomplete urbanization ',uneven development between urban and rural areas,and unsustainability of urban development. The root of the above problems is the lack of understanding of the complication in measuring urbanization,only taking the‘quantity'level of urbanization into account,while ignoring the‘quality'level of urbanization. Therefore,this paper constructed a comprehensive evaluation index system of urbanization quality from four aspects: the quality of city's own development,the efficiency of urbanization,the degree of urban-rural integration,and the sustainability of urban development. This paper made a comprehensive evaluation and analysis of urbanization quality in China from 1985 to 2015 by ‘vertical and horizontal'scatter degree method,and further revealed its spatial association by exploratory spatial data analysis. The results showed that: firstly,the urbanization quality in China was gradually increasing over time,but differences among regions were significant,which means urbanization quality in the eastern coastal areas was superior to that in the central and western regions. Secondly,among the four aspects of urbanization quality,the quality of city's own development was good; however,the quality of urban economic development and environment needed to be improved; the efficiency of urbanization had declined slightly due to capital,land and energy efficiency constraints; the degree of urban-rural integration showed improvement after the first deterioration; the sustainability of urban development declined. Thirdly,the urbanization quality had a significant positive global spatial autocorrelation,while the local spatial autocorrelation varied from eastern to western areas. The ‘High-High'cluster areas which were concentrated in the eastern coastal areas expanded,the‘Low-Low'cluster areas which were distributed in the northwest region were in a dynamic change,the ‘Low-High'cluster areas were mainly located in Hebei,Anhui,Jiangxi,and Guizhou and the ‘High-Low'cluster areas included Xinjiang,Hubei and Sichuan. Finally,this paper suggested that all factors should be considered during the process of urbanization. On the one hand,the differentiated urbanization strategy should be formulated due to regional difference; on the other hand,the spatial layout of cities should be optimized and the regional synergies should be fully exploited to promote an overall improvement of urbanization quality.
China has experienced an unprecedentedly rapid urbanization since the reform and opening-up. The urbanization rate in China has surpassed the world average level. However,the rapid development of urbanization in China has also brought a series of problems,such as ‘incomplete urbanization ',uneven development between urban and rural areas,and unsustainability of urban development. The root of the above problems is the lack of understanding of the complication in measuring urbanization,only taking the‘quantity'level of urbanization into account,while ignoring the‘quality'level of urbanization. Therefore,this paper constructed a comprehensive evaluation index system of urbanization quality from four aspects: the quality of city's own development,the efficiency of urbanization,the degree of urban-rural integration,and the sustainability of urban development. This paper made a comprehensive evaluation and analysis of urbanization quality in China from 1985 to 2015 by ‘vertical and horizontal'scatter degree method,and further revealed its spatial association by exploratory spatial data analysis. The results showed that: firstly,the urbanization quality in China was gradually increasing over time,but differences among regions were significant,which means urbanization quality in the eastern coastal areas was superior to that in the central and western regions. Secondly,among the four aspects of urbanization quality,the quality of city's own development was good; however,the quality of urban economic development and environment needed to be improved; the efficiency of urbanization had declined slightly due to capital,land and energy efficiency constraints; the degree of urban-rural integration showed improvement after the first deterioration; the sustainability of urban development declined. Thirdly,the urbanization quality had a significant positive global spatial autocorrelation,while the local spatial autocorrelation varied from eastern to western areas. The ‘High-High'cluster areas which were concentrated in the eastern coastal areas expanded,the‘Low-Low'cluster areas which were distributed in the northwest region were in a dynamic change,the ‘Low-High'cluster areas were mainly located in Hebei,Anhui,Jiangxi,and Guizhou and the ‘High-Low'cluster areas included Xinjiang,Hubei and Sichuan. Finally,this paper suggested that all factors should be considered during the process of urbanization. On the one hand,the differentiated urbanization strategy should be formulated due to regional difference; on the other hand,the spatial layout of cities should be optimized and the regional synergies should be fully exploited to promote an overall improvement of urbanization quality.
引文
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[26]张习宁.中国宏观经济的投资效率分析[J].海南金融,2012(3):4-7.[ZHANG Xining.Investment efficiency analysis of China's macro-economy[J].Hainan finance,2012(3):4-7.]
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[29]文魁,祝尔娟,叶堂林,等.京津冀发展报告(2014)[M].北京:社会科学文献出版社,2014.[WEN Kui,ZHU Erjuan,YE Tanglin,et al.Blue book of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei(2014)[M].Beijing:Social Sciences Academic Press,2014.]
[2]王桂新.城市化基本理论与中国城市化的问题及对策[J].人口研究,2013,37(6):43-51.[WANG Guixin.The basic theory of urbanization and problems and countermeasures of China's urbanization[J].Population research,2013,37(6):43-51.]
[3]YIN K,WANG R,AN Q,et al.Using eco-efficiency as an indicator for sustainable urban development:a case study of Chinese provincial capital cities[J].Ecological indicators,2014,36(1):665-671.
[4]FRIEDMANN J.Four theses in the study of China's urbanization[J].International journal of urban and regional research,2006,30(2):440-451.
[5]JURAN J M,GRYNA F M.Quality planning and analysis[M].New York:Mc Graw-Hill,1980:10-15.
[6]鲍悦华,陈强.质量概念的嬗变与城市发展质量[J].同济大学学报(社会科学版),2009,20(6):46-52.[BAO Yuehua,CHEN Qiang.The evolution of quality concept and the quality of urban development[J].Journal of Tongji University(social sciences edition),2009,20(6):46-52.]
[7]DEMPSEY N,BRAMLEY G,POWER S,et al.The social dimension of sustainable development:defining urban social sustainability[J].Sustainable development,2011,19(5):289-300.
[8]UN-HABITAT.State of the world's cities 2008-2009:harmonious cities[M].London:Earthscan,2008:1-2.
[9]CAPROTTI F.Critical research on eco-cities?a walk through the Sino-Singapore Tianjin eco-city,China[J].Cities,2014,36(3):10-17.
[10]叶裕民.中国城市化质量研究[J].中国软科学,2001(7):27-31.[YE Yumin.Approach on China's urbanization quality[J].China soft science,2001(7):27-31.]
[11]国家城调总队,福建省城调队课题组.建立中国城市化质量评价体系及应用研究[J].统计研究,2005(7):15-19.[The National Urban Survey Head Team,Research Group of Urban Survey Team in Fujian Province.Construction and application of China's urbanization quality evaluation system[J].Statistical research,2005(7):15-19.]
[12]李明秋,郎学彬.城市化质量的内涵及其评价指标体系的构建[J].中国软科学,2010(12):182-186.[LI Mingqiu,LANG Xuebin.The connotation of urbanization quality and the construction of its evaluation index system[J].China soft science,2010(12):182-186.]
[13]方创琳,王德利.中国城市化发展质量的综合测度与提升路径[J].地理研究,2011,30(11):1931-1946.[FANG Chuanglin,WANG Deli.Comprehensive measures and improvement of Chinese urbanization development quality[J].Geographical research,2011,30(11):1931-1946.]
[14]臧锐,张鹏,杨青山,等.吉林省城市化水平综合测度及时空演变[J].地理科学,2013,33(10):1231-1237.[ZANG Rui,ZHANG Peng,YANG Qingshan,et al.Comprehensive measure and spatial-temporal evolution of urbanization level in Jilin Province[J].Geographical science,2013,33(10):1231-1237.]
[15]UN-HABITAT.Epilogue,the city development index(CDI)[EB/OL].[2017-06-17].http://www.un.org/ga/Istanbul+5/116.pdf.
[16]UN-HABITAT.Urban indicators guideliners[R].New York:United Nations Publications,2004:8-9.
[17]袁晓玲,王霄,何维炜,等.对城市化质量的综合评价分析——以陕西省为例[J].城市发展研究,2008(2):38-41.[YUAN Xiaoling,WANG Xiao,HE Weiwei,et al.Synthetic evaluation for urbanization quality of Shaanxi Province[J].Urban studies,2008(2):38-41.]
[18]薛德升,曾献君.中国人口城镇化质量评价及省际差异分析[J].地理学报,2016,71(2):194-204.[XUE Desheng,ZENG Xianjun.Evaluation of China's urbanization quality and analysis of its spatial pattern transformation based on the modern life index[J].Acta geographica sinica,2016,71(2):194-204.]
[19]韩增林,刘天宝.中国地级以上城市城市化质量特征及空间差异[J].地理研究,2009(6):1508-1515.[HAN Zenglin,LIU Tianbao.Analysis of the characteristics and spatial differences of urbanization quality of cities at prefecture level and above in China[J].Geographical research,2009(6):1508-1515.]
[20]国务院发展研究中心和世界银行联合课题组,李伟,SRI M,等.中国推进高效、包容、可持续的城镇化[J].管理世界,2014(4):5-41.[Joint Research Group of the Development Research Center of the State Council and the World Bank,LI Wei,SRI M,et al.China:driving efficient,inclusive and sustainable urbanization[J].Management world,2014(4):5-41.]
[21]郭亚军.一种新的动态综合评价方法[J].管理科学学报,2002,5(2):49-54.[GUO Yajun.New theory and method of dynamic comprehensive evaluation[J].Journal of management science in China,2002,5(2):49-54.]
[22]ANSELIN L.Exploratory spatial data analysis in a geocomputational environment[R].New York,1998.
[23]LI P.China's infrastructure development and supply-side structural reforms[J].China economist,2016,11(4):84-103.
[24]林毅夫.中国经济增速连续6年下滑,原因是什么?[J].资源再生,2016(12):58-62.[LIN Yifu.What's the reason of China's economic growth's declining for six consecutive years?[J].Resource recycling,2016(12):58-62.]
[25]张志辉.中国城市土地利用效率研究[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2014(7):134-149.[ZHANG Zhihui.Study of Chinese urban land use efficiency[J].Journal of quantitative&technical economics,2014(7):134-149.]
[26]张习宁.中国宏观经济的投资效率分析[J].海南金融,2012(3):4-7.[ZHANG Xining.Investment efficiency analysis of China's macro-economy[J].Hainan finance,2012(3):4-7.]
[27]秦中春.城乡一体化发展:面向未来的国家战略[J].人民论坛·学术前沿,2016(8):6-17.[QIN Zhongchun.Integrated development of urban and rural areas:national strategy oriented to the future[J].People's forum,academic frontiers,2016(8):6-17.]
[28]中国经济增长前沿课题组.中国经济长期增长路径、效率与潜在增长水平[J].经济研究,2012(11):4-17.[Research Group on China's Economic Growth.China's long-term growth path,efficiency,and potential growth rate[J].Economic research journal,2012(11):4-17.]
[29]文魁,祝尔娟,叶堂林,等.京津冀发展报告(2014)[M].北京:社会科学文献出版社,2014.[WEN Kui,ZHU Erjuan,YE Tanglin,et al.Blue book of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei(2014)[M].Beijing:Social Sciences Academic Press,2014.]