区域城市地价系统稳定性研究——以冀北地区为例
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摘要
研究区域城市地价系统稳定性,有利于深化和丰富城市地价研究的理论与方法,为协调区域城市间地价、制定差别化城市地价政策、加强土地市场宏观调控提供科学依据。以冀北地区张家口市、承德市为研究区域,从系统论出发,利用AHP法及线性回归法,构建包括城市区位与环境、城市经济发展水平、城市社会发展水平3个准则层15个指标层的城市地价系统稳定性综合评价模型,对冀北地区2004—2014年地价系统稳定性进行分析。结果表明,张家口市地价系统稳定度为5.222,处于中度稳定状态,对其影响最大的指标为供水总量,权重系数为0.278;承德市地价系统稳定度为6.386,处于稳定状态,对其影响最大的指标为城镇化率,权重系数为0.349。
Studying the stability of land price system in regional cities can deepen and enrich the theories and methods on urban land price,and provide a scientific basis for coordinating regional urban land prices,formulating different land price policies and strengthening the macro control of the land market.Based on the system theory,this paper took Zhangjiakou and Chengde as samples and used AHP method and linear regression methods to build a comprehensive evaluation model of urban land price system stability,which was based on 15 index layers of three criteria including the urban location and environment,urban economic development level and urban social development level.Then,the stability of land price system in northern Hebei province from 2004 to 2014 was analyzed.The results showed that the current land price system stability in Zhangjiakou was 5.222,which was moderately stable.The most influential index of it was the total water supply and the weight coefficient was 0.278;The land price system stability of Chengde was 6.386,which was in a stable condition.The urbanization rate was its most influential index and the weight coefficient was 0.349.
Studying the stability of land price system in regional cities can deepen and enrich the theories and methods on urban land price,and provide a scientific basis for coordinating regional urban land prices,formulating different land price policies and strengthening the macro control of the land market.Based on the system theory,this paper took Zhangjiakou and Chengde as samples and used AHP method and linear regression methods to build a comprehensive evaluation model of urban land price system stability,which was based on 15 index layers of three criteria including the urban location and environment,urban economic development level and urban social development level.Then,the stability of land price system in northern Hebei province from 2004 to 2014 was analyzed.The results showed that the current land price system stability in Zhangjiakou was 5.222,which was moderately stable.The most influential index of it was the total water supply and the weight coefficient was 0.278;The land price system stability of Chengde was 6.386,which was in a stable condition.The urbanization rate was its most influential index and the weight coefficient was 0.349.
引文
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[23]隋雪艳,吴巍,周生路.都市新区住宅地价空间异质性驱动因素研究---基于空间扩展模型和GWR模型的比较[J].地理科学,2015,35(6):683-689.
[2]吴跃民.城市地价空间分布的流场理论研究[J].湘潮,2008,(289):76-77.
[3]吴晓丽,李瑞军.森林生态系统稳定性评价[J].南方农业,2015,9(24):99-101.
[4]崔英伟,董宝海,李涛.从系统论观点看城市经济、城市建设、城市环境三方面规划实践的统一[J].河北建筑工程学院学报,2003,21(4):21-23.
[5]曹天邦,黄克龙,李剑波.基于GWR的南京市住宅地价空间分异及演变[J].地理研究,2013,32(12):2324-2333.
[6]李玲,朱道林,胡克林.北京市城区住宅地价的时空变化规律[J].经济地理,2011,31(4):655-659.
[7]朱春龙.武汉市住宅价格时空演变特征及其影响因素分析[D].武汉:华中农业大学,2010.
[8]杨奎奇,汪应宏,张绍良.江苏省城市地价影响因素分析与空间结构研究[J].人文地理,2013,(1):69-74.
[9]华文,范黎,吴群.城市地价水平影响因素的相关分析---以江苏省为例[J].经济地理,2005,25(2):203-205.
[10]张居峰.城市地价合理性变动的实证研究[D].哈尔滨:东北农业大学,2004.
[11]蔡剑红,朱道林.多空间尺度普通住宅用地的合理地价研究[J].上海市场,2012,4(7):38-42.
[12]王茜,吴胜军,肖飞.洪湖湿地生态系统稳定性研究[J].中国生态农业学报,2005,13(4):178-180.
[13]Zhibin Zhang,Chuan Yan,Charles J Krebs,etc.Ecological non-monotonicity and its effects on complexity and stability of populations,communities and ecosystems[J].Ecological Modelling,2015,312(24):374-384.
[14]王玲玲,曾光明,黄国和.湖滨湿地生态系统稳定性研究[J].生态学报,2005,25(12):3406-3410.
[15]赵军,朱瑜馨,曹静.祁连山山地生态系统稳定性评估模型研究[J].西北师范大学学报,2002,38(4):73-76.
[16]李新旺,门名新,王树涛.基于过程的河北平原农田生态系统稳定性评价[J].自然资源学报,2008,23(3):430-438.
[17]廖静玉,宋长春,郭跃东.三江平原湿地生态系统稳定性评价指标体系和评价方法[J].干旱区资源与环境,2009,23(10):89-93.
[18]朱建宁.省域城市地价空间分异的影响因素研究---以江苏省为例[D].南京:南京农业大学,2008.
[19]马亚博.我国城市地价时空演变特征及影响因素研究[D].北京:首都经济贸易大学,2009.
[20]肖正强.影响城市土地价格因素的研究---以江苏省为例[D].长沙:中南林业科技大学,2013.
[21]胡冠军.基于Panel Date模型的城市地价水平影响因素研究---以全国27个大中城市为例[D].杭州:浙江大学,2007.
[22]谢戈力,张晓平.宏观规划要素对城市间地价水平差异的影响---以广东省为例[J].热带地理,2011,31(5):474-477.
[23]隋雪艳,吴巍,周生路.都市新区住宅地价空间异质性驱动因素研究---基于空间扩展模型和GWR模型的比较[J].地理科学,2015,35(6):683-689.