省域农地城市流转规模及其影响因素作用的空间异质性研究
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摘要
作为城镇化过程中土地资源配置的必然过程,大规模的农地城市流转会给耕地保护和土地资源的可持续利用带来巨大压力。研究农地城市流转规模及其影响因素作用程度的空间异质性对于揭示农地城市流转的复杂性,进而采取差别化的、有针对性的管制措施控制农地城市流转规模具有重要意义。鉴于此,本文在阐释中国大陆31个省(自治区、直辖市)农地城市流转规模在经度、纬度方向上的变化规律的基础上,运用全域及局域自相关模型分析了省域尺度上中国农地城市流转规模的空间异质性,继而进一步采用地理加权回归模型揭示了省域农地城市流转规模各影响因素作用程度的空间异质性,结果表明:(1)31个省(自治区、直辖市)的农地城市流转规模在水平方向上自西向东呈稳定上升趋势,纬度方向上在中国中部省份达到最高值并分别向南北两个方向省份逐渐下降,呈现倒"U"型。(2)全国范围内省域农地城市流转规模呈现出一定程度的空间关联特征,省域农地城市流转规模的局部自相关随区域而变化,体现出空间异质性。(3)全社会固定资产投资额、居民人均可支配收入、年初耕地面积、第三产业比重四个因素影响省域农地城市流转规模,且影响程度随空间位置不同而变化,除全社会固定资产投资对省域农地城市流转规模的影响程度在全国范围内空间分布较均匀外,其他三个因素的影响程度呈现较大的空间异质性。因此,应在充分考虑空间异质性的基础上,通过提高规划方案或管制措施的差异性和针对性实现对农地城市流转规模的有效管制。
As the inevitable process of land resources allocation in urbanization,large scale of rural-urban land conversion will bring enormous pressure on the protection of cultivated land and the sustainable use of land resources.Studying the spatial heterogeneity of rural-urban land conversion scale and effects of its influential factors is substantial for revealing the complexities of rural-urban land conversion and is helpful for regulating its scale via adopting differentiated and targeted control measures.This paper firstly explores the law of rural-urban land conversion scale of 31 provinces(autonomous regions and municipalities) in longitude and dimension direction.Based on that,it then analyzes the spatial heterogeneity of rural-urban land conversion scale on provincial scale by employing the global autocorrelation model and local autocorrelation model.Moreover,the spatial heterogeneity of effects of influential factors on rural-urban land conversion scale is studied.The results show that rural-urban land conversion scales of 31 provinces(autonomous regions and municipalities) display a steady upward trend in the horizontal direction and an inverted‘U'type in latitude direction which means the scales reach the maximum value in provinces located in Central China and then decline gradually in provinces located in North and South China respectively.The provincial scales of agricultural land circulation in China are spatially related and the local auto correlation of provincial scales changes according to the regions they belong to which reflect the spatial heterogeneity.Four influential factors including total investment in fixed assets,residents' per capita disposable income,and quantity of farmland at the beginning of the year as well as the tertiary industry proportion have influences on rural-urban land conversion scale and the degree of influence varies with the spatial position.Besides the factor of total investment in fixed assets,all the other factors have great spatial heterogeneity of the degree of influence.Therefore,on the basis of considering spatial heterogeneity adequately,the differentiation and pertinence of land use planning as well as measures of regulation should be greatly improved in order to achieve the effective control of the rural-urban land conversion scale.
As the inevitable process of land resources allocation in urbanization,large scale of rural-urban land conversion will bring enormous pressure on the protection of cultivated land and the sustainable use of land resources.Studying the spatial heterogeneity of rural-urban land conversion scale and effects of its influential factors is substantial for revealing the complexities of rural-urban land conversion and is helpful for regulating its scale via adopting differentiated and targeted control measures.This paper firstly explores the law of rural-urban land conversion scale of 31 provinces(autonomous regions and municipalities) in longitude and dimension direction.Based on that,it then analyzes the spatial heterogeneity of rural-urban land conversion scale on provincial scale by employing the global autocorrelation model and local autocorrelation model.Moreover,the spatial heterogeneity of effects of influential factors on rural-urban land conversion scale is studied.The results show that rural-urban land conversion scales of 31 provinces(autonomous regions and municipalities) display a steady upward trend in the horizontal direction and an inverted‘U'type in latitude direction which means the scales reach the maximum value in provinces located in Central China and then decline gradually in provinces located in North and South China respectively.The provincial scales of agricultural land circulation in China are spatially related and the local auto correlation of provincial scales changes according to the regions they belong to which reflect the spatial heterogeneity.Four influential factors including total investment in fixed assets,residents' per capita disposable income,and quantity of farmland at the beginning of the year as well as the tertiary industry proportion have influences on rural-urban land conversion scale and the degree of influence varies with the spatial position.Besides the factor of total investment in fixed assets,all the other factors have great spatial heterogeneity of the degree of influence.Therefore,on the basis of considering spatial heterogeneity adequately,the differentiation and pertinence of land use planning as well as measures of regulation should be greatly improved in order to achieve the effective control of the rural-urban land conversion scale.
引文
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[16]钟海玥,张安录.基于分层线性模型的武汉城市圈农地城市流转经济驱动机制研究[J].经济地理,2014,34(5):76-82.[ZHONG Haiyue,ZHANG Anlu.Land conversion driving forces based on hierarchical linear models:a case study in Wuhan Metropolitan Area[J].Economic geography,2014,34(5):76-82.]
[17]魏倩倩,任志远.半干旱地区典型城市耕地面积变化空间差异及驱动力分析——以西安市为例[J].水土保持研究,2016,23(1):284-288.[WEI Qianqian,REN Zhiyuan.Spatial differences of cultivated land change and driving force analysis in typical semi-arid area:a case study of Xi'an City[J].Research of soil and water conservation,2016,23(1):284-288.]
[18]BRUNSDON C,FOTHERINGHAM A S,CHARLTON M E.Geographically weighted regression:a method for exploring spatial nonstationarity[J].Geographical analysis,1996,28(4):281-298.
[19]FOTHERINGHAM A S,BRUNSDON C,CHARLTON M.Geographically weighted regression:the analysis of spatially varying relationships[J].Geographical analysis,2003,35(3):272-275.
[20]曲福田,陈江龙,陈雯.农地非农化经济驱动机制的理论分析与实证研究[J].自然资源学报,2005,20(2):231-241.[QU Futian,CHEN Jianglong,CHEN Wen.Theoretical and empirical study on the land conversion economic driving forces[J].Journal of natural resources,2005,20(2):231-241.]
[2]LIU Y,TANG W,HE J,et al.A land-use spatial optimization model based on genetic optimization and game theory[J].Computers,environment and urban systems,2015,49:1-14.
[3]张雄,张安录,闵敏.湖北省农地城市流转效率及其影响因素[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2013(3):146-151.[ZHANG Xiong,ZHANG Anlu,MIN Min.Evaluation on rural-urban land conversion efficiency of Hubei Province[J].China population,resources and environment,2013(3):146-151.]
[4]钟海玥.农地城市流转与经济增长的交互作用及其尺度效应[D].武汉:华中农业大学,2014:1-2.[ZHONG Haiyue.Interaction between rural-urban land conversion and its spatial scale effects[D].Wuhan:Huazhong Agricultural University,2014:1-2.]
[5]张修芳,牛叔文,冯骁,等.天水城市扩张的时空特征及动因分析[J].地理研究,2013(12):2312-2323.[ZHANG Xiufang,NIU Shuwen,FENG Xiao,et al.Spatial-temporal characteristics and driving factors of urban land expansion of a valley city:a case study of Tianshui City in Western China[J].Geographical research,2013(12):2312-2323.]
[6]肖琳,田光进,乔治.基于Agent的城市扩张占用耕地动态模型及模拟[J].自然资源学报,2014(3):516-527.[XIAO Lin,TIAN Guangjin,QIAO Zhi.An agent-based approach for urban encroachment on cropland dynamic model and simulation[J].Journal of natural resources,2014(3):516-527.]
[7]任平,吴涛,周介铭.耕地非农化的空间过程与扩散路径研究——以成都市龙泉驿区为例[J].中国土地科学,2015(12):68-73,94.[REN Ping,WU Tao,ZHOU Jieming.Study on the spatial pattern and diffusion path of cultivated land conversion:a case study in Chengdu Longquanyi District[J].China land sciences,2015(12):68-73,94.]
[8]张孝宇,谢新朋,张安录.武汉市耕地非农化的空间非均衡发展与空间扩散路径分析[J].自然资源学报,2014(10):1649-1659.[ZHANG Xiaoyu,XIE Xinpeng,ZHANG Anlu.Spatial unbalanced development and diffusion route of farmland conversion in Wuhan City[J].Journal of natural resources,2014(10):1649-1659.]
[9]李涛,廖和平,褚远恒,等.重庆市农地非农化空间非均衡及形成机理[J].自然资源学报,2016,31(11):1844-1857.[LI Tao,LIAO Heping,CHU Yuanheng,et al.Spatial disequilibrium and its formation mechanism of farmland conversion in Chongqing[J].Journal of natural resources,2016,31(11):1844-1857.]
[10]张孝宇,赖宗裕,张安录.基于地块尺度的耕地非农化驱动力空间异质性研究——以武汉市为例[J].长江流域资源与环境,2015,24(6):994-1002.[ZHANG Xiaoyu,LAI Zongyu,ZHANG Anlu.Spatial heterogeneity in driving forces of farmland conversion based on patch scale:a case study of Wuhan City[J].Resources and environment in the Yangze Basin,2015,24(6):994-1002.]
[11]蔡运龙,霍雅勤.耕地非农化的供给驱动[J].中国土地,2002(7):20-22.[CAI Yunlong,HUO Yaqin.The supply driving forces of farmland conversion[J].China land,2002(7):20-22.]
[12]田玉忠,石志恒.耕地非农化的供求驱动分析——以陕西省为例[J].开发研究,2007(3):25-27.[TIAN Yuzhong,SHI Zhiheng.The supply and demanding driving forces of farmland conversion:a case study of Shanxi[J].Research on development,2007(3):25-27.]
[13]苑韶峰,杨丽霞,杨桂山,等.耕地非农化的社会经济驱动因素异质性研究——基于STIRPAT和GWR模型的实证分析[J].经济地理,2013,33(5):137-143.[YUAN Shaofeng,YANG Lixia,YANG Guishan,et al.The spatial heterogeneity of socio-economic driving factors of cultivated land conversion:a case based on STIRPAT and GWR models[J].Economic geography,2013,33(5):137-143.]
[14]张良悦,师博,刘东.城市化进程中农地非农化的政府驱动——基于中国地级以上城市面板数据的分析[J].当代经济科学,2008,30(3):33-41,125.[ZHANG Liangyue,Shi Bo,LIU Dong.Toward government driving of non-agriculture usage of rural land in urbanization:an analysis based on cities panel data in China[J].Modern economic science,2008,30(3):33-41,125.]
[15]张俊峰,张安录,何雄.土地资源空间异质性及差别化政策研究[J].西北农林科技大学学报(社会科学版),2016(6):21-28.[ZHANG Junfeng,ZHANG Anlu,HE Xiong.Formation and transmission mechanism of land resources spatial heterogeneity and differentiated land policy[J].Journal of Northwest A&F University(social sciences edition),2016(6):21-28.]
[16]钟海玥,张安录.基于分层线性模型的武汉城市圈农地城市流转经济驱动机制研究[J].经济地理,2014,34(5):76-82.[ZHONG Haiyue,ZHANG Anlu.Land conversion driving forces based on hierarchical linear models:a case study in Wuhan Metropolitan Area[J].Economic geography,2014,34(5):76-82.]
[17]魏倩倩,任志远.半干旱地区典型城市耕地面积变化空间差异及驱动力分析——以西安市为例[J].水土保持研究,2016,23(1):284-288.[WEI Qianqian,REN Zhiyuan.Spatial differences of cultivated land change and driving force analysis in typical semi-arid area:a case study of Xi'an City[J].Research of soil and water conservation,2016,23(1):284-288.]
[18]BRUNSDON C,FOTHERINGHAM A S,CHARLTON M E.Geographically weighted regression:a method for exploring spatial nonstationarity[J].Geographical analysis,1996,28(4):281-298.
[19]FOTHERINGHAM A S,BRUNSDON C,CHARLTON M.Geographically weighted regression:the analysis of spatially varying relationships[J].Geographical analysis,2003,35(3):272-275.
[20]曲福田,陈江龙,陈雯.农地非农化经济驱动机制的理论分析与实证研究[J].自然资源学报,2005,20(2):231-241.[QU Futian,CHEN Jianglong,CHEN Wen.Theoretical and empirical study on the land conversion economic driving forces[J].Journal of natural resources,2005,20(2):231-241.]