基于改进DEA模型的城市生态福利绩效评价研究——以我国35个大中城市为例
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摘要
论文首先基于数据包络分析(DEA)方法构建城市生态福利绩效的评价指标体系,以我国35个大中城市(省级和副省级城市)为例,采用2013年的截面数据,选取考虑松弛变量的Super-SBM模型测算城市生态福利绩效水平,并在此基础上运用Tobit模型回归分析其影响因素。研究表明:1)我国35个大中城市2013年的整体生态福利绩效水平不高,且城市间差距较大,青岛、海口等沿海旅游城市的生态福利绩效水平明显处于领先地位,然而经济发达的长三角地区包括上海、南京、杭州等城市均排名靠后;2)从区域层面上看,呈现出"东部最高、中部次之、西部最低"的态势;3)经济产出贡献率和产业结构与生态福利绩效呈负相关,城市紧凑度和绿化与生态福利绩效呈显著正相关。最后根据实证分析结果提出针对性政策建议。
In this paper, the evaluation index system of urban ecological well-being performance(hereinafter referred to as UEWP) is established in the first step by means of DEA. Resource indicators including energy consumption per capita, water use per capita and construction land use per capita, and environmental indicators such as waste water discharge per capita, waste gas emission per capita and waste solid discharge per capita are selected as the ecological input, and GDP per capita, life expectance at birth and education, which are the three dimensions of Human Development Index(HDI), are selected as the proxy index of wellbeing to be the output at city level. The principal component analysis(PCA) is employed during the index processing. In the empirical part, a comparative analysis is conducted based on DEA model(BCC and Super-DEA) and revised DEA model—super-SBM model with cross-sectional data of the year of 2013 from 35 major cities(provincial and sub-provincial cities) in China. Then, on the basis of the DEA value acquired with the super-SBM model, the Tobit regression model is employed to analyze the influencing factors of UEWP. The research result shows that the super-SBM model is a better choice during the evaluation of UEWP since it can solve the radial issue. Main conclusions are as follows: 1) 35 major cities are at overall low level of UEWP in 2013, but there are big gaps among cities, cities with top ranks of UEWP being tourist cities such as Qingdao and Haikou instead of the economically developed cities such as Shanghai or Beijing, the capital city of China. 2) Spatially, the east of China ranks first,and the middle and the west of China are in the second and the third place respectively. 3) The Tobit regressive analysis on the influencing factors of UEWP demonstrates that urban population density and green space are positive factors, and economic scale and industrial structure are negative factors of UEWP. Finally, some constructive suggestions are proposed.
In this paper, the evaluation index system of urban ecological well-being performance(hereinafter referred to as UEWP) is established in the first step by means of DEA. Resource indicators including energy consumption per capita, water use per capita and construction land use per capita, and environmental indicators such as waste water discharge per capita, waste gas emission per capita and waste solid discharge per capita are selected as the ecological input, and GDP per capita, life expectance at birth and education, which are the three dimensions of Human Development Index(HDI), are selected as the proxy index of wellbeing to be the output at city level. The principal component analysis(PCA) is employed during the index processing. In the empirical part, a comparative analysis is conducted based on DEA model(BCC and Super-DEA) and revised DEA model—super-SBM model with cross-sectional data of the year of 2013 from 35 major cities(provincial and sub-provincial cities) in China. Then, on the basis of the DEA value acquired with the super-SBM model, the Tobit regression model is employed to analyze the influencing factors of UEWP. The research result shows that the super-SBM model is a better choice during the evaluation of UEWP since it can solve the radial issue. Main conclusions are as follows: 1) 35 major cities are at overall low level of UEWP in 2013, but there are big gaps among cities, cities with top ranks of UEWP being tourist cities such as Qingdao and Haikou instead of the economically developed cities such as Shanghai or Beijing, the capital city of China. 2) Spatially, the east of China ranks first,and the middle and the west of China are in the second and the third place respectively. 3) The Tobit regressive analysis on the influencing factors of UEWP demonstrates that urban population density and green space are positive factors, and economic scale and industrial structure are negative factors of UEWP. Finally, some constructive suggestions are proposed.
引文
[1]诸大建,何芳,霍佳震.中国城市可持续发展绿皮书[M].上海:同济大学出版社,2014.[ZHU D J,HE F,HUO J Z.Annual Greenbook for Sustainability of 35 Big Cities in China and 16 Cities in Yangtze River Delta.Shanghai:Tongji University Press,2014.]
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[5]COMMON M.Measuring national economic performance without using prices[J].Ecological Economics,2007,64(1):92-102.
[6]DIETZ T,ROSA E A,YORK R.Environmentally efficient well-being:Is there a Kuznets curve?[J].Applied Geography,2012,32(1):21-28.
[7]何林,陈欣.基于生态福利的陕西省经济可持续发展研究[J].开发研究,2011(6):24-28.[HE L,CHEN X.Study on sustainable economic development in Shaanxi Province based on ecological wellbeing.Research on Development,2011(6):24-28.]
[8]臧漫丹,诸大建,刘国平.生态福利绩效:概念,内涵及G20实证[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2013,23(5):118-124.[ZANG M D,ZHU D J,LIU G P.Ecological well-being performance:Concept,connotation and empirical of G20.China Population,Resources and Environment,2013,23(5):118-124.]
[9]毛齐正,黄甘霖,邬建国.城市生态系统服务研究综述[J].应用生态学报,2015,26(4):1023-1033.[MAO Q Z,HUANG G L,WU J G.Urban ecosystem services:A review.Chinese Journal of Applied Ecology,2015,26(4):1023-1033.]
[10]诸大建,张帅.基于生态足迹的中国福利水平及其影响因素研究[J].城市与环境研究,2014(1):18-33.[ZHU D J,ZHANG S.The research on wellbeing level of china and its impact factors from the perspective of ecological footprint.Urban and Environmental Studies,2014(1):18-33.]
[11]高铁梅.计量经济分析方法与建模[M].第二版.北京:清华大学出版社,2009.[GAO T M.Analytical Methodology and Modeling in Econometrics.The Second Edition.Beijing:Tsinghua University Press,2009.]
[12]CHARNES A,COOPER W W,RHODES E.Measuring the efficiency of decision making units[J].European Journal of Operational Research,1978,2(6):429-444.
[13]BANKER R D,CHARNES A,COOPER W W.Some models for estimating technical and scale inefficiencies in data envelopment analysis[J].Management Science,1984,30(9):1078-1092.
[14]王成金,杨威,许旭,等.工业经济发展的资源环境效率评价方法与实证--以广东和广西为例[J].自然资源学报,2011,26(1):97-109.[WANG C J,YANG W,XU X,et al.Appraising model of utilizing efficiency of resources and environment for industry and empirical study in Guangxi and Guangdong.Journal of Natural Resources,2011,26(1):97-109.]
[15]TONE K.A slacks-based measure of efficiency in data envelopment analysis[J].European Journal of Operational Research,2001,130(3):498-509.
[16]SONG M,ZHANG L,AN Q,et al.Statistical analysis and combination forecasting of environmental efficiency and its influential factors since China entered the WTO:2002-2010-2012[J].Journal of Cleaner Production,2013,42:42-51.
[17]周泽炯,胡建辉.基于Super-SBM模型的低碳经济发展绩效评价研究[J].资源科学,2013,35(12):2457-2466.[ZHOU Z J,HU J F.Evaluation of low carbon economy development efficiency based on a super-SBM model.Resources Science,2013,35(12):2457-2466.]
[18]TONE K.A slacks-based measure of super-efficiency in data envelopment analysis[J].European Journal of Operational Research,2002,143(1):32-41.
[19]宫大鹏,赵涛,慈兆程,等.基于超效率SBM的中国省际工业化石能源效率评价及影响因素分析[J].环境科学学报,2015,35(2):585-595.[GONG D P,ZHAO T,CI Z C,et al.Evaluation of regional industrial fossil energy efficiency in China based on super SBM and factors analysis.Acta Scientiae Circumstantiae,2015,35(2):585-595.]
[20]汪文雄,朱欣,余利红,等.不同模式下农地整治前后土地利用效率的比较研究[J].自然资源学报,2015,30(7):1104-1117.[WANG W X,ZHU X,YU L H,et al.Comparative study on land use efficiency before and after rural land consolidation in different modes.Journal of Natural Resources,2015,30(7):1104-1117.]
[21]TOBIN J.Estimation of relationships for limited dependent variables[J].Econometrics,1958,26(1):24-36.
[22]成金华,孙琼,郭明晶,等.中国生态效率的区域差异及动态演化研究[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2014,24(1):47-54.[CHENG J H,SUN Q,GUO M J,et al.Research on regional disparity and dynamic evolution of eco-efficiency in China.China Population,Resources and Environment,2014,24(1):47-54.]
[23]潘兴侠,何宜庆,胡晓峰.区域生态效率评价及其空间计量分析[J].长江流域资源与环境,2013,22(5):640-647.[PAN X X,HE Y Q,HU X F.Evaluation and spatial econometric analysis on regional ecological efficiency.Resources and Environment in the Yangtze Basin,2013,22(5):640-647.]
[24]付丽娜,陈晓红,冷智花.基于超效率DEA模型的城市群生态效率研究--以长株潭“3+5”城市群为例[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2013,23(4):169-175.[FU L N,CHEN X H,LENG Z H.Urban agglomerations eco-efficiency analysis based on super-efficiency DEA model:Case study of Chang-Zhu-Tan“3+5”urban agglomeration.China Population,Resources and Environment,2013,23(4):169-175.]
[25]陈傲.中国区域生态效率评价及影响因素实证分析--以2000-2006年省际数据为例[J].中国管理科学,2008(S1):566-570.[CHEN A.Empirical analysis of the evaluation of regional ecology efficiency and influential factors in China-Evidences from provincial data during 2000-2006.Chinese Journal of Management Science,2008(S1):566-570.]
[26]陈莉.生态效率水平测评及其影响因素分析--以河西地区为例[D].兰州:西北师范大学,2014.[CHEN L.Evaluation of Ecological Efficiency Level and Analysis its Influencing Factors-A Case Study of Hexi Region.Lanzhou:Northwest Normal University,2014.]
[27]杨永恒,胡鞍钢,张宁.基于主成分分析法的人类发展指数替代技术[J].经济研究,2005,7(4):4-17.[YANG Y G,HU A G,ZHANG N.An alternative to human development index with principal component analysis.Economic Research Journal,2005,7(4):4-17.]
[28]马占新,唐焕文.关于DEA有效性在数据变换下的不变性[J].系统工程学报,1999,14(2):129-134.[MA Z X,TANG H W.On the invariant properties of DEA method under the data transformation.Journal of Systems Engineering,1999,14(2):129-134.]
[29]吴琦.中国省域能源效率评价研究[D].大连:大连理工大学,2010.[WU Q.Research on Provincial Energy Efficiency Evaluation in China.Dalian:Dalian University of Technology,2010.]
[30]联合国开发计划署.中国人类发展报告2013[M].北京:中国对外翻译出版公司,2013.[UNDP.China Human Development Report 2013.Beijing:China Translation&Publishing Corporation,2013.]
[31]孙钰,王坤岩,姚晓东.基于DEA交叉效率模型的城市公共基础设施经济效益评价[J].中国软科学,2015(1):172-183.[SUN Y,WANG K Y,YAO X D.Economic benefits evaluation of urban public infrastructure based on the DEAcross-efficiency method.China Soft Science,2015(1):172-183.]
[32]汪克亮,杨宝臣,杨力.基于环境效应的中国能源效率与节能减排潜力分析[J].管理评论,2012,24(8):40-50.[WANG K L,YANG B C,YANG L.Analysis on China’s energy efficiency and potentials of energy conservation and emissions reduction from the perspective of environment impact.Management Review,2012,24(8):40-50.]
[33]TAKANO T,NAKAMURA K,WATANABE M.Urban residential environments and senior citizens’longevity in megacity areas:The importance of walkable green spaces[J].Journal of Epidemiology and Community Health,2002,56(12):913-918.
[2]United Nations Development Programme.Human Development Report 1990[M].New York:Oxford University Press,1990:10.
[3]诸大建,张帅.生态福利绩效及其与经济增长的关系研究[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2014,24(9):59-62.[ZHU D J,ZHANG S.Research on ecological wellbeing performance and its relationship with economic growth.China Population,Resources and Environment,2014,24(9):59-62.]
[4]诸大建,张帅.生态福利绩效与深化可持续发展的研究[J].同济大学学报(社会科学版),2014(5):106-115.[ZHU DJ,ZHANG S.Ecological wellbeing performance and further research on sustainable development.Journal of Tongji University(Social Science Section),2014,25(5):106-114.]
[5]COMMON M.Measuring national economic performance without using prices[J].Ecological Economics,2007,64(1):92-102.
[6]DIETZ T,ROSA E A,YORK R.Environmentally efficient well-being:Is there a Kuznets curve?[J].Applied Geography,2012,32(1):21-28.
[7]何林,陈欣.基于生态福利的陕西省经济可持续发展研究[J].开发研究,2011(6):24-28.[HE L,CHEN X.Study on sustainable economic development in Shaanxi Province based on ecological wellbeing.Research on Development,2011(6):24-28.]
[8]臧漫丹,诸大建,刘国平.生态福利绩效:概念,内涵及G20实证[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2013,23(5):118-124.[ZANG M D,ZHU D J,LIU G P.Ecological well-being performance:Concept,connotation and empirical of G20.China Population,Resources and Environment,2013,23(5):118-124.]
[9]毛齐正,黄甘霖,邬建国.城市生态系统服务研究综述[J].应用生态学报,2015,26(4):1023-1033.[MAO Q Z,HUANG G L,WU J G.Urban ecosystem services:A review.Chinese Journal of Applied Ecology,2015,26(4):1023-1033.]
[10]诸大建,张帅.基于生态足迹的中国福利水平及其影响因素研究[J].城市与环境研究,2014(1):18-33.[ZHU D J,ZHANG S.The research on wellbeing level of china and its impact factors from the perspective of ecological footprint.Urban and Environmental Studies,2014(1):18-33.]
[11]高铁梅.计量经济分析方法与建模[M].第二版.北京:清华大学出版社,2009.[GAO T M.Analytical Methodology and Modeling in Econometrics.The Second Edition.Beijing:Tsinghua University Press,2009.]
[12]CHARNES A,COOPER W W,RHODES E.Measuring the efficiency of decision making units[J].European Journal of Operational Research,1978,2(6):429-444.
[13]BANKER R D,CHARNES A,COOPER W W.Some models for estimating technical and scale inefficiencies in data envelopment analysis[J].Management Science,1984,30(9):1078-1092.
[14]王成金,杨威,许旭,等.工业经济发展的资源环境效率评价方法与实证--以广东和广西为例[J].自然资源学报,2011,26(1):97-109.[WANG C J,YANG W,XU X,et al.Appraising model of utilizing efficiency of resources and environment for industry and empirical study in Guangxi and Guangdong.Journal of Natural Resources,2011,26(1):97-109.]
[15]TONE K.A slacks-based measure of efficiency in data envelopment analysis[J].European Journal of Operational Research,2001,130(3):498-509.
[16]SONG M,ZHANG L,AN Q,et al.Statistical analysis and combination forecasting of environmental efficiency and its influential factors since China entered the WTO:2002-2010-2012[J].Journal of Cleaner Production,2013,42:42-51.
[17]周泽炯,胡建辉.基于Super-SBM模型的低碳经济发展绩效评价研究[J].资源科学,2013,35(12):2457-2466.[ZHOU Z J,HU J F.Evaluation of low carbon economy development efficiency based on a super-SBM model.Resources Science,2013,35(12):2457-2466.]
[18]TONE K.A slacks-based measure of super-efficiency in data envelopment analysis[J].European Journal of Operational Research,2002,143(1):32-41.
[19]宫大鹏,赵涛,慈兆程,等.基于超效率SBM的中国省际工业化石能源效率评价及影响因素分析[J].环境科学学报,2015,35(2):585-595.[GONG D P,ZHAO T,CI Z C,et al.Evaluation of regional industrial fossil energy efficiency in China based on super SBM and factors analysis.Acta Scientiae Circumstantiae,2015,35(2):585-595.]
[20]汪文雄,朱欣,余利红,等.不同模式下农地整治前后土地利用效率的比较研究[J].自然资源学报,2015,30(7):1104-1117.[WANG W X,ZHU X,YU L H,et al.Comparative study on land use efficiency before and after rural land consolidation in different modes.Journal of Natural Resources,2015,30(7):1104-1117.]
[21]TOBIN J.Estimation of relationships for limited dependent variables[J].Econometrics,1958,26(1):24-36.
[22]成金华,孙琼,郭明晶,等.中国生态效率的区域差异及动态演化研究[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2014,24(1):47-54.[CHENG J H,SUN Q,GUO M J,et al.Research on regional disparity and dynamic evolution of eco-efficiency in China.China Population,Resources and Environment,2014,24(1):47-54.]
[23]潘兴侠,何宜庆,胡晓峰.区域生态效率评价及其空间计量分析[J].长江流域资源与环境,2013,22(5):640-647.[PAN X X,HE Y Q,HU X F.Evaluation and spatial econometric analysis on regional ecological efficiency.Resources and Environment in the Yangtze Basin,2013,22(5):640-647.]
[24]付丽娜,陈晓红,冷智花.基于超效率DEA模型的城市群生态效率研究--以长株潭“3+5”城市群为例[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2013,23(4):169-175.[FU L N,CHEN X H,LENG Z H.Urban agglomerations eco-efficiency analysis based on super-efficiency DEA model:Case study of Chang-Zhu-Tan“3+5”urban agglomeration.China Population,Resources and Environment,2013,23(4):169-175.]
[25]陈傲.中国区域生态效率评价及影响因素实证分析--以2000-2006年省际数据为例[J].中国管理科学,2008(S1):566-570.[CHEN A.Empirical analysis of the evaluation of regional ecology efficiency and influential factors in China-Evidences from provincial data during 2000-2006.Chinese Journal of Management Science,2008(S1):566-570.]
[26]陈莉.生态效率水平测评及其影响因素分析--以河西地区为例[D].兰州:西北师范大学,2014.[CHEN L.Evaluation of Ecological Efficiency Level and Analysis its Influencing Factors-A Case Study of Hexi Region.Lanzhou:Northwest Normal University,2014.]
[27]杨永恒,胡鞍钢,张宁.基于主成分分析法的人类发展指数替代技术[J].经济研究,2005,7(4):4-17.[YANG Y G,HU A G,ZHANG N.An alternative to human development index with principal component analysis.Economic Research Journal,2005,7(4):4-17.]
[28]马占新,唐焕文.关于DEA有效性在数据变换下的不变性[J].系统工程学报,1999,14(2):129-134.[MA Z X,TANG H W.On the invariant properties of DEA method under the data transformation.Journal of Systems Engineering,1999,14(2):129-134.]
[29]吴琦.中国省域能源效率评价研究[D].大连:大连理工大学,2010.[WU Q.Research on Provincial Energy Efficiency Evaluation in China.Dalian:Dalian University of Technology,2010.]
[30]联合国开发计划署.中国人类发展报告2013[M].北京:中国对外翻译出版公司,2013.[UNDP.China Human Development Report 2013.Beijing:China Translation&Publishing Corporation,2013.]
[31]孙钰,王坤岩,姚晓东.基于DEA交叉效率模型的城市公共基础设施经济效益评价[J].中国软科学,2015(1):172-183.[SUN Y,WANG K Y,YAO X D.Economic benefits evaluation of urban public infrastructure based on the DEAcross-efficiency method.China Soft Science,2015(1):172-183.]
[32]汪克亮,杨宝臣,杨力.基于环境效应的中国能源效率与节能减排潜力分析[J].管理评论,2012,24(8):40-50.[WANG K L,YANG B C,YANG L.Analysis on China’s energy efficiency and potentials of energy conservation and emissions reduction from the perspective of environment impact.Management Review,2012,24(8):40-50.]
[33]TAKANO T,NAKAMURA K,WATANABE M.Urban residential environments and senior citizens’longevity in megacity areas:The importance of walkable green spaces[J].Journal of Epidemiology and Community Health,2002,56(12):913-918.