生态福利绩效视角下的绿色发展评价研究——以青岛市为例
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摘要
在资源与环境利用和分配的过程中,稀缺、耗竭、风险与不确定性的增大、经济和福利损失加大等问题逐渐显现并呈加剧态势。以可持续发展作为研究范式,构建以人类发展指数和人均生态足迹为核心指标的城市绿色发展评价体系,测算出生态福利绩效水平。运用DEA方法测算二者的投入产出效率,使用Tobit模型分析生态福利绩效的影响因素,对青岛市2006—2016年绿色发展水平进行多角度、动态化的实证研究。研究表明:(1)青岛属于"高消耗,高福利"城市。资源消耗、经济增长与社会福利呈同步发展态势,但生态足迹远超生态承载力,处于严重"生态赤字"状态。(2)在2006—2016年,青岛的生态福利绩效仅在2015年处于效率前沿面,其余10年为DEA无效率状态。在"生态门槛"的框架内实现社会福利最大化是城市实现绿色可持续发展的必然选择。
In the process of utilization and distribution of resources and environment, the problems of scarcity, exhaustion, increase of risk and uncertainty and increase of economic and welfare losses have gradually appeared and become more and more serious. Taking sustainability development as the research paradigm, this paper constructs an evaluation system of urban green development based on human development index and ecological footprint per capita and calculates ecological welfare performance. The DEA method is used to measure the input-output efficiency and analyze the influencing factors of ecological welfare performance. Then a dynamic empirical study on the green development level of Qingdao from 2006 to 2016 is carried out.(1) Qingdao belongs to the city of high consumption and high welfare. Resource consumption, economic growth and social welfare are developing synchronously, but the ecological footprint is far beyond the ecological carrying capacity and is in a serious "ecological deficit" state.(2) From 2006 to 2016, Qingdao's ecological welfare performance was at the front of efficiency in 2015, and the other 10 years was DEA inefficiency. Maximizing profits is an inevitable choice for the city to achieve green and sustainable development.
In the process of utilization and distribution of resources and environment, the problems of scarcity, exhaustion, increase of risk and uncertainty and increase of economic and welfare losses have gradually appeared and become more and more serious. Taking sustainability development as the research paradigm, this paper constructs an evaluation system of urban green development based on human development index and ecological footprint per capita and calculates ecological welfare performance. The DEA method is used to measure the input-output efficiency and analyze the influencing factors of ecological welfare performance. Then a dynamic empirical study on the green development level of Qingdao from 2006 to 2016 is carried out.(1) Qingdao belongs to the city of high consumption and high welfare. Resource consumption, economic growth and social welfare are developing synchronously, but the ecological footprint is far beyond the ecological carrying capacity and is in a serious "ecological deficit" state.(2) From 2006 to 2016, Qingdao's ecological welfare performance was at the front of efficiency in 2015, and the other 10 years was DEA inefficiency. Maximizing profits is an inevitable choice for the city to achieve green and sustainable development.
引文
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[22]诸大建,徐萍.福利提高的三个“门槛”及政策意义[J].社会科学,2010(3):32-41,188.
[23]Moran D D,Wackernagel M,Kitzes J A,et al.Measuring sustainable development-Nation by nation[J].Ecological Economics,2008,64(3):470-474.
[2]冯吉芳,袁健红.中国区域生态福利绩效及其影响因素[J].中国科技论坛,2016(3):100-105.
[3]徐昱东,亓朋,童临风.中国省级地区生态福利绩效水平时空分异格局研究[J].区域经济评论,2017(4):123-131.
[4]刘应元.我国农业产业生态福利水平测度及提升策略研究[D].武汉:华中农业大学,2014.
[5]Rice J.Material consumption and social well-being within the periphery of the world economy:An ecological analysis of maternal mortality[J].Social Science Research,2008,37(4):1292-1309.
[6]诸大建,张帅.生态福利绩效及其与经济增长的关系研究[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2014(9):59-67.
[7]刘国平,朱远.亚太国家经济增长与碳排放福利绩效比较[J].亚太经济,2016(1):86-91.
[8]冯吉芳,袁健红.生态福利绩效--可持续发展新的分析工具[J].科技管理研究,2016(12):240-244.
[9]何林,陈欣.基于生态福利的陕西省经济可持续发展研究[J].开发研究,2011(6):24-28.
[10]龙亮军,王霞,郭兵.生态福利绩效视角下的上海市可持续发展评价研究[J].长江流域资源与环境,2016(1):9-15.
[11]龙亮军,王霞,郭兵.基于改进DEA模型的城市生态福利绩效评价研究--以我国35个大中城市为例[J].自然资源学报,2017(4):595-605.
[12]龙亮军,王霞.上海市生态福利绩效评价研究[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2017(2):84-92.
[13]张帅,史清华.应用人类发展指数和生态足迹的可持续发展研究--基于强可持续的研究范式[J].上海交通大学学报(哲学社会科学版),2017(3):99-108.
[14]Bare J C.Development of impact assessment methodologies for environmental sustainability[J].Clean Technologies&Environmental Policy,2014,16(4):681-690.
[15]WBCSD.Eco-efficient leadership for improved economic and environmental performance[R].Geneva:WBCSD,1996.
[16]Daly H E.The world dynamics of economic growth:The economics of the steady state[J].American Economic Review,1974,64(2):15-23.
[17]United Nations Development Programme.Human development report 2014[EB/OL].[2018-05-01].http://www.undp.org/content/undp/en/home/librarypage/hdr/human-developmentreport-2014/.
[18]Wackernagel M,Onisto L,Bello P,et al.National natural capital accounting with the ecological footprint concept[J].Ecological Economics,1999,29(3):375-390.
[19]陈东景,徐中民,程国栋,等.中国西北地区的生态足迹[J].冰川冻土,2001(2):164-169.
[20]陈东景,张志强,程国栋,等.中国1999年的生态足迹分析[J].土壤学报,2002(3):441-445.
[21]诸大建,张帅.生态福利绩效与深化可持续发展的研究[J].同济大学学报(社会科学版),2014(5):106-115.
[22]诸大建,徐萍.福利提高的三个“门槛”及政策意义[J].社会科学,2010(3):32-41,188.
[23]Moran D D,Wackernagel M,Kitzes J A,et al.Measuring sustainable development-Nation by nation[J].Ecological Economics,2008,64(3):470-474.