灰色聚类方法预测西藏忠玉水电站水库诱发地震的震级上限
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摘要
基于西藏忠玉水电站抗震安全设计的需求,本文利用收集的150例已发水库诱发地震的水库资料,结合野外地质调查,使用灰色聚类方法,将水库深度、水库容量、区域应力状态、断层活动性、岩性条件和地震活动背景作为主要诱震因素,计算对应发震比例数值,作为水库诱发地震的预测指标。依据忠玉水电站忠玉-坝址段、玉坝支流段的6个独立诱震因素状态,评估各段的水库诱发地震的震级上限。计算结果表明:忠玉水电站忠玉坝址段和玉坝支流段水库诱发地震震级上限均可能大于5级。通过震例检验,说明了灰色聚类方法在忠玉水电站水库诱发地震震级上限的预测研究中是科学可行的。同时,指出了加强水库诱发地震震例及机理研究是推进水库诱发地震科学合理预测的发展方向。
Based on the seismic safety design requirements of Zhongyu Hydropower Station, the data from 150 cases of reservoir-induced earthquake(RIE) are collected herein, and then reservoir depth, reservoir capacity, regional stress state, fault activity, lithology conditions and seismic activity are taken as the main earthquake inducing factors with grey clustering method in accordance with the relevant field investigation, and then the numerical values of corresponding earthquake occurrence ratios are calculated and taken as the indexes for the prediction of the reservoir-induced earthquake. According to the statuses of six independent earthquake inducing factors of Zongyu-dam site section and Yuba Yuba tributary section of Zhongyu Hydropower Station, the magnitude upper limits of the reservoir-induced earthquake of both the sections are evaluated. The calculation result shows that the magnitude upper limits of the reservoir-induced earthquake of both Zongyu-dam site section and Yuba Yuba tributary section are possibly to be larger than M_s5.0. Through the verification made on the relevant earthquake cases, it is demonstrated that grey cluster method is scientific and feasible in the prediction study of the magnitude upper limit of the reservoir-induced earthquake of Yuzhong Hydropower Station. Meanwhile, it is pointed out that strengthening the study on the case and mechanism of reservoir-induced earthquake is the developing direction to promoting scientific and reasonable prediction of reservoir-induced earthquake.
Based on the seismic safety design requirements of Zhongyu Hydropower Station, the data from 150 cases of reservoir-induced earthquake(RIE) are collected herein, and then reservoir depth, reservoir capacity, regional stress state, fault activity, lithology conditions and seismic activity are taken as the main earthquake inducing factors with grey clustering method in accordance with the relevant field investigation, and then the numerical values of corresponding earthquake occurrence ratios are calculated and taken as the indexes for the prediction of the reservoir-induced earthquake. According to the statuses of six independent earthquake inducing factors of Zongyu-dam site section and Yuba Yuba tributary section of Zhongyu Hydropower Station, the magnitude upper limits of the reservoir-induced earthquake of both the sections are evaluated. The calculation result shows that the magnitude upper limits of the reservoir-induced earthquake of both Zongyu-dam site section and Yuba Yuba tributary section are possibly to be larger than M_s5.0. Through the verification made on the relevant earthquake cases, it is demonstrated that grey cluster method is scientific and feasible in the prediction study of the magnitude upper limit of the reservoir-induced earthquake of Yuzhong Hydropower Station. Meanwhile, it is pointed out that strengthening the study on the case and mechanism of reservoir-induced earthquake is the developing direction to promoting scientific and reasonable prediction of reservoir-induced earthquake.
引文
[1] 秦双龙,邱毅.福建仙游震群序列发震构造分析研究[J].地震工程学报,2018,40(6):1306- 1311.
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[12] 甘家思,蔡永建,雷东宁,等.西藏忠玉水电站断裂活动性及区域构造稳定性专题研究[R].武汉:武汉地震工程研究院,2016.
[13] 易立新,车用太,王广才.水库诱发地震研究的历史、现状与发展趋势[J].华南地震,2003,23(1):28- 37.
[14] 刘先锋,李碧雄,邓建辉.水库诱发地震预测方法研讨[J].地震工程学报,2014,36(1):171- 176.
[2] 钟以章.用灰色系统理论预测锦凌水库的诱发地震[J].华南地震,1990,10(4):80- 86.
[3] 杨清源,陈献程,胡毓良,等.应用灰色聚类法预测长江三峡工程水库诱发地震的最大震级[J].华南地震,1996,16(2):75- 79.
[4] 马文涛,徐锡伟,于贵华,等.使用灰色聚类方法评估长江三峡水库湖北不同库段水库诱发地震的震级上限[J].地震地质,2012,34(4):726- 735.
[5] 杨清源,胡毓良,陈献程.国内外水库诱发地震目录[J].地震地质,1996,18(4):453- 461.
[6] 常宝琦,梁纪彬.水库“规模”与水库震级的关系[J].华南地震,1987,7(1):94- 99.
[7] 杜运连,王洪涛,袁丽文.我国水库诱发地震研究[J].地震,2008,28(4):39- 51.
[8] 中国水利年鉴编写组.中国水利年鉴暨2011[M].北京:中国水利出版社,2011.
[9] 丁原章.水库诱发地震[M].北京:地震出版社,1989.
[10] 杨清源,陈晓莉,陈献程.水库诱发地震的最大震级及其发震时间的预测研究[J].地震学报,2001,23(5):523- 529.
[11] 丁原章,潘建雄,肖安予,等.新丰江水库诱发地震的构造条件[J].地震地质,1983,5(3):63- 74.
[12] 甘家思,蔡永建,雷东宁,等.西藏忠玉水电站断裂活动性及区域构造稳定性专题研究[R].武汉:武汉地震工程研究院,2016.
[13] 易立新,车用太,王广才.水库诱发地震研究的历史、现状与发展趋势[J].华南地震,2003,23(1):28- 37.
[14] 刘先锋,李碧雄,邓建辉.水库诱发地震预测方法研讨[J].地震工程学报,2014,36(1):171- 176.