基于交互耦合网络的项目组合决策模型研究
|
摘要
随着项目活动进入"大尺度"时代,复杂性成为现代化项目组合管理中的突出问题。在项目组合决策系统复杂性分析基础上,提出了交互耦合网络视角下的项目组合决策系统表征方法;借鉴非线性动力学建模方法构建项目组合决策系统复杂动力网络模型,结合模型的稳定解和稳定条件将项目组合决策系统划分为竞争型、共生型、强依存型和弱依存型,并通过数值仿真方法对系统的稳定域、分岔和混沌进行分析。研究表明,项目组合决策系统的复杂性和稳定性依赖于系统内交互关系作用,改善协作关系,避免过分竞争,以系统整体为先优化配置有利于项目组合目标实现。
As project activities enter into the large scale era,complexity becomes an outstanding problem of the modern project portfolio management. Based on the analysis of the complexity of the project portfolio,an representation method for the project portfolio decision-making system is proposed from the perspective of interactive coupling network. By referring to the nonlinear dynamic model,the complex dynamical network model is constructed for the project portfolio decision-making,and then the stability domain,equilibrium solution,bifurcation and chaos of the model are analyzed and simulated. Researches show that the complexity and stability of the project portfolio decision-making system depend on the interactive relationship,and the realization of the portfolio objective is benefited by improving cooperation,avoiding competition and optimizing allocation based on portfolio entirely.
As project activities enter into the large scale era,complexity becomes an outstanding problem of the modern project portfolio management. Based on the analysis of the complexity of the project portfolio,an representation method for the project portfolio decision-making system is proposed from the perspective of interactive coupling network. By referring to the nonlinear dynamic model,the complex dynamical network model is constructed for the project portfolio decision-making,and then the stability domain,equilibrium solution,bifurcation and chaos of the model are analyzed and simulated. Researches show that the complexity and stability of the project portfolio decision-making system depend on the interactive relationship,and the realization of the portfolio objective is benefited by improving cooperation,avoiding competition and optimizing allocation based on portfolio entirely.
引文
[1]Fang Y,Chen L,Fukushima M.A mixed R&D projects and securities portfolio selection model[J].European Journal of Operational Research,2008,185(2):700-715.
[2]赵静,郭鹏,潘女兆.基于交互效应的项目组合风险度量及选择优化[J].运筹与管理,2011,20(6):120-126.
[3]Hilmola M R O.Interdependency management of projects:survey comparison between estonia and finland[J].Baltic Journal of Management,2011,6(2):146-162.
[4]Archer N,Ghasemzadeh F.An integrated framework for project portfolio selection[J].International Journal of Project Management,1999,17(4):207-216.
[5]Bhattacharyya R,Kumar P,Kar S.Fuzzy R&D portfolio selection of interdependent projects[J].Computers&Mathematics with Applications,2011,62(10):3857-3870.
[6]Rungi M.Success rate and resource consumption from project interdependencies[J].Industrial Management&Data Systems,2010,110(1):93-110(18).
[7]Solak S,Clarke J P B,Johnson E L,et al.Optimization of R&D project portfolios under endogenous uncertainty[J].European Journal of Operational Research,2010,207(1):420-433.
[8]Ghapanchi A H,Tavana M,Khakbaz M H,et al.A methodology for selecting portfolios of projects with interactions and under uncertainty[J].International Journal of Project Management,2012,30(7):791-803.
[9]Liesi9 J,Mild P,Salo A.Robust portfolio modeling with incomplete cost information and project interdependencies[J].European Journal of Operational Research,2008,190(3):679-695.
[10]郭鹏,潘女兆,赵静.高新技术项目组合的双模式风险预警机制研究[J].管理学报,2011,8:1524-1529.
[11]Winter M,Smith C,Morris P,et al.Directions for future research in project management:the main findings of a UK government-funded research network[J].International Journal of Project Management,2006,24(8):638-649.
[12]Pich M T,Loch C H,Meyer A D.On uncertainty,ambiguity,and complexity in project management[J].Management Science,2002,48(8):1008-1023.
[13]Stummer C,Heidenberger K.Interactive R&D portfolio analysis with project interdependencies and time profiles of multiple objectives[J].Engineering Management,IEEE Transactions on,2003,50(2):175-183.
[14]Amaral L A N,Uzzi B.Complex systems—a new paradigm for the integrative study of management,physical,and technological systems[J].Management Science,2007,53(7):1033-1035.
[15]杨婧,陈英武,沈永平.基于相互作用网络的大型工程项目组织结构风险分析[J].系统工程理论与实践,2011,31:1966-1973.
[16]Baccarini D.The concept of project complexity—a review[J].International Journal of Project Management,1996,14:201-204.
[17]Aritua B,Smith N J,Bower D.Construction client multi-projects-a complex adaptive systems perspective[J].International Journal of Project Management,2009,27(1):72-79.
[18]Marle F,Vidal L A,Bocquet J C.Interactions-based risk clustering methodologies and algorithms for complex project management[J].International Journal of Production Economics,2013,142(2):225-234.
[19]Whitty S J,Maylor H.And then came complex project management(revised)[J].International Journal of Project Management,2009,27(3):304-310.
[20]林福永,孙凯.复杂网络关系流与行为关系定理——一般系统结构理论在复杂网络中的应用[J].系统工程理论与实践,2007,27:136-141.
[21]吕金虎.复杂动力网络的数学模型与同步准则[J].系统工程理论与实践,2004,24:17-22.
[22]Tsai B-H,Li Y.Cluster evolution of IC industry from taiwan to China[J].Technological Forecasting and Social Change,2009,76(8):1092-1104.
[23]Jayanthi S,Roth A V,Kristal M M,et al.Strategic resource dynamics of manufacturing firms[J].Management Science,2009,55(6):1060-1076.
[24]Jonghwa K,Jaekyoung A,Deok Joo L.A dynamic competition analysis on the korean mobile phone market using competitive diffusion model[J].Computers&industrial engineering,2006,51(1):págs.174-182.
[25]满青珊,张金隆,聂磊,等.冲突影响下的移动商务联盟自组织动力建模[J].管理科学,2011,24(3):34-42.
[26]Teller J,Unger B N,Kock A,et al.Formalization of project portfolio management:the moderating role of project portfolio complexity[J].International Journal of Project Management,2012,30(5):596-607.
[27]Jinhu L,Guanrong C.A time-varying complex dynamical network model and its controlled synchronization criteria[J].Automatic Control,IEEE Transactions on,2005,50(6):841-846.
[28]LüJ,Yu X,Chen G.Chaos synchronization of general complex dynamical networks[J].Physica A:Statistical Mechanics and its Applications,2004,334(1-2):281-302.
[2]赵静,郭鹏,潘女兆.基于交互效应的项目组合风险度量及选择优化[J].运筹与管理,2011,20(6):120-126.
[3]Hilmola M R O.Interdependency management of projects:survey comparison between estonia and finland[J].Baltic Journal of Management,2011,6(2):146-162.
[4]Archer N,Ghasemzadeh F.An integrated framework for project portfolio selection[J].International Journal of Project Management,1999,17(4):207-216.
[5]Bhattacharyya R,Kumar P,Kar S.Fuzzy R&D portfolio selection of interdependent projects[J].Computers&Mathematics with Applications,2011,62(10):3857-3870.
[6]Rungi M.Success rate and resource consumption from project interdependencies[J].Industrial Management&Data Systems,2010,110(1):93-110(18).
[7]Solak S,Clarke J P B,Johnson E L,et al.Optimization of R&D project portfolios under endogenous uncertainty[J].European Journal of Operational Research,2010,207(1):420-433.
[8]Ghapanchi A H,Tavana M,Khakbaz M H,et al.A methodology for selecting portfolios of projects with interactions and under uncertainty[J].International Journal of Project Management,2012,30(7):791-803.
[9]Liesi9 J,Mild P,Salo A.Robust portfolio modeling with incomplete cost information and project interdependencies[J].European Journal of Operational Research,2008,190(3):679-695.
[10]郭鹏,潘女兆,赵静.高新技术项目组合的双模式风险预警机制研究[J].管理学报,2011,8:1524-1529.
[11]Winter M,Smith C,Morris P,et al.Directions for future research in project management:the main findings of a UK government-funded research network[J].International Journal of Project Management,2006,24(8):638-649.
[12]Pich M T,Loch C H,Meyer A D.On uncertainty,ambiguity,and complexity in project management[J].Management Science,2002,48(8):1008-1023.
[13]Stummer C,Heidenberger K.Interactive R&D portfolio analysis with project interdependencies and time profiles of multiple objectives[J].Engineering Management,IEEE Transactions on,2003,50(2):175-183.
[14]Amaral L A N,Uzzi B.Complex systems—a new paradigm for the integrative study of management,physical,and technological systems[J].Management Science,2007,53(7):1033-1035.
[15]杨婧,陈英武,沈永平.基于相互作用网络的大型工程项目组织结构风险分析[J].系统工程理论与实践,2011,31:1966-1973.
[16]Baccarini D.The concept of project complexity—a review[J].International Journal of Project Management,1996,14:201-204.
[17]Aritua B,Smith N J,Bower D.Construction client multi-projects-a complex adaptive systems perspective[J].International Journal of Project Management,2009,27(1):72-79.
[18]Marle F,Vidal L A,Bocquet J C.Interactions-based risk clustering methodologies and algorithms for complex project management[J].International Journal of Production Economics,2013,142(2):225-234.
[19]Whitty S J,Maylor H.And then came complex project management(revised)[J].International Journal of Project Management,2009,27(3):304-310.
[20]林福永,孙凯.复杂网络关系流与行为关系定理——一般系统结构理论在复杂网络中的应用[J].系统工程理论与实践,2007,27:136-141.
[21]吕金虎.复杂动力网络的数学模型与同步准则[J].系统工程理论与实践,2004,24:17-22.
[22]Tsai B-H,Li Y.Cluster evolution of IC industry from taiwan to China[J].Technological Forecasting and Social Change,2009,76(8):1092-1104.
[23]Jayanthi S,Roth A V,Kristal M M,et al.Strategic resource dynamics of manufacturing firms[J].Management Science,2009,55(6):1060-1076.
[24]Jonghwa K,Jaekyoung A,Deok Joo L.A dynamic competition analysis on the korean mobile phone market using competitive diffusion model[J].Computers&industrial engineering,2006,51(1):págs.174-182.
[25]满青珊,张金隆,聂磊,等.冲突影响下的移动商务联盟自组织动力建模[J].管理科学,2011,24(3):34-42.
[26]Teller J,Unger B N,Kock A,et al.Formalization of project portfolio management:the moderating role of project portfolio complexity[J].International Journal of Project Management,2012,30(5):596-607.
[27]Jinhu L,Guanrong C.A time-varying complex dynamical network model and its controlled synchronization criteria[J].Automatic Control,IEEE Transactions on,2005,50(6):841-846.
[28]LüJ,Yu X,Chen G.Chaos synchronization of general complex dynamical networks[J].Physica A:Statistical Mechanics and its Applications,2004,334(1-2):281-302.