生态技术评价方法与模型研究——理论模型设计
|
摘要
针对生态技术研究缺乏科学系统的评价方法和模型,在对常用的评价方法和模型分析的基础上,提出"三阶段评价法",设计了生态技术评价的理论模型。通过设置虚拟变量、Lasso指标选择和数据纠偏处理等方法,分别解决评价过程中出现的属性指标数字化、指标信息重叠和数据不平衡等问题,在此基础上建立生态技术评价的回归模型。这对减少人为主观因素的干扰、客观评价生态技术具有重要意义,为生态技术评价提供思路、方法和参考。
Ecological technology plays an important role in mitigating the process of ecosystem degradation. However, the research of ecological technology lacks scientific and systematic evaluation method and model. After summarizing the methods and models which can be used for the evaluation of ecological technology, the paper put forward the"three stage evaluation method" based on ecological technology itself, its application effect, and its coupling relationship with the benefit, which are qualitative evaluation method, semi quantitative evaluation method, and quantitative evaluation method. With the continuous deepening of the understanding of a certain ecological technology and the continuous enrichment of data collection, the "three stage evaluation method" could be used to evaluate the ecological technology from the coarse to the fine, from qualitative to quantitative. At different cognitive stages of ecological technology, the theoretical model of ecological technology evaluation with different scenarios was established by regression analysis. One regression model was established at the stage of"qualitative evaluation"; seven regression models were established at the stage of"semi quantitative evaluation"; ninety-five regression models were established at the stage of"quantitative evaluation". By establishing regression models in different situations,each stage reveals the relationship of the ecological technology elements is different index systems, realizes the thought of modular evaluation, and then obtains the comprehensive value of ecological technology evaluation. Three main problems of evaluation model were pointed out: attribute data digitization, overlap of index information and data imbalance. It was suggested that the regression model of ecological technology evaluation should be established on the basis of comprehensive consideration of setting the dummy variable, Lasso variable selection and data balance. The regression analysis evaluation model established in this study is based on existing ecological technology evaluation database and the experience of expert evaluation and is an objective evaluation model. The model could reduce the interference of subjective factors and make an objective evaluation on the ecological technology. The evaluation method and model of ecological technology established in this study could not only evaluate the existing ecological technologies, but also evaluate the innovative use of new technologies or existing technologies, so as to provide scientific basis for"bringing in"and"going out"of the ecological technologies all over the world.
Ecological technology plays an important role in mitigating the process of ecosystem degradation. However, the research of ecological technology lacks scientific and systematic evaluation method and model. After summarizing the methods and models which can be used for the evaluation of ecological technology, the paper put forward the"three stage evaluation method" based on ecological technology itself, its application effect, and its coupling relationship with the benefit, which are qualitative evaluation method, semi quantitative evaluation method, and quantitative evaluation method. With the continuous deepening of the understanding of a certain ecological technology and the continuous enrichment of data collection, the "three stage evaluation method" could be used to evaluate the ecological technology from the coarse to the fine, from qualitative to quantitative. At different cognitive stages of ecological technology, the theoretical model of ecological technology evaluation with different scenarios was established by regression analysis. One regression model was established at the stage of"qualitative evaluation"; seven regression models were established at the stage of"semi quantitative evaluation"; ninety-five regression models were established at the stage of"quantitative evaluation". By establishing regression models in different situations,each stage reveals the relationship of the ecological technology elements is different index systems, realizes the thought of modular evaluation, and then obtains the comprehensive value of ecological technology evaluation. Three main problems of evaluation model were pointed out: attribute data digitization, overlap of index information and data imbalance. It was suggested that the regression model of ecological technology evaluation should be established on the basis of comprehensive consideration of setting the dummy variable, Lasso variable selection and data balance. The regression analysis evaluation model established in this study is based on existing ecological technology evaluation database and the experience of expert evaluation and is an objective evaluation model. The model could reduce the interference of subjective factors and make an objective evaluation on the ecological technology. The evaluation method and model of ecological technology established in this study could not only evaluate the existing ecological technologies, but also evaluate the innovative use of new technologies or existing technologies, so as to provide scientific basis for"bringing in"and"going out"of the ecological technologies all over the world.
引文
[1]甄霖,王继军,姜志德,等.生态技术评价方法及全球生态治理技术研究[J].生态学报,2016,36(22):7152-7157.[ZHEN L,WANG J J,JIANG Z D,et al.The methodology for assessing ecological restoration technologies and evaluation of global ecosystem rehabilitation technologies.Acta Ecologica Sinica,2016,36(22):7152-7157.]
[2]ZHEN L,YAN H M,HU Y F,et al.Overview of ecological restoration technologies and evaluation systems[J].Journal of Resources and Ecology,2017,8(4):315-324.
[3]EULISS N H,SMITH L M,LIU S,et al.Integrating estimates of ecosystem services from conservation programs and practices into models for decision makers[J].Ecological Applications,2011,21(3):S128-S134.
[4]ROJO L,BAUTISTA S,ORR B J,et al.Prevention and restoration actions to combat desertification An integrated assessment:The PRACTICE Project[J].Science et Changements Planetaires—Secheresse,2012,23(3):219-226.
[5]刘国彬,上官周平,姚文艺,等.黄土高原生态工程的生态成效[J].中国科学院院刊,2017,32(1):11-19.[LIU G B,SHANGGUAN Z P,YAO W Y,et al.Ecological effects of soil conservation in Loess Plateau.Bulletin of Chinese Academy of Sciences,2017,32(1):11-19.]
[6]肖庆业.南方地区退耕还林工程效益组合评价研究[M].北京:清华大学出版社,2016.[XIAO Q Y.Benefit Combination Evaluation Research for Conversion of Cropland to Forest Program in Southern China.Beijing:Tsinghua University Press,2016.]
[7]李世东,刘某承,陈应发.美丽生态:理论探索指数评价与发展战略[M].北京:科学出版社,2017.[LI S D,LIU M C,CHEN Y F.Beautiful Ecology:Theoretical Explore Evaluation Index and Development Strategy.Beijing:Science Press,2017.]
[8]刘莲花.基于距离综合评价法的数学核心期刊评价[J].中国科技期刊研究,2015,26(8):871-874.[LIU L H.Evaluation of mathematics core journals based on distance comprehensive evaluation method.Chinese Journal of Scientific and Technical Periodicals,2015,26(8):871-874.]
[9]黄凌云,谢丽团,邱晓兰,等.基于密切值法的福建省生态技术创新能力评价与提升策略[J].科技管理研究,2017,37(14):70-76.[HUANG L Y,XIE L T,QIU X L,et al.Evaluation based on topsis method and promotion strategy of eco-technology innovation capability in Fujian Province.Science and Technology Management Research,2017,37(14):70-76.]
[10]陆文星,梁昌勇,丁勇.一种基于证据距离的客观权重确定方法[J].中国管理科学,2008,16(6):95-99.[LU W X,LIANG C Y,DING Y.A method determining the objective weights of experts based on evidence distance.Chinese Journal of Management Science,2008,16(6):95-99.]
[11]信桂新,杨朝现,杨庆媛,等.用熵权法和改进TOPSIS模型评价高标准基本农田建设后效应[J].农业工程学报,2017,33(1):238-249.[XIN G X,YANG C X,YANG Q Y,et al.Post-evaluation of well-facilitied capital farmland construction based on entropy weight method and improved TOPSIS model.Transactions of the CSAE,2017,33(1):238-249.]
[12]张欣莹,解建仓,刘建林,等.基于熵权法的节水型社会建设区域类型分析[J].自然资源学报,2017,32(2):301-309.[ZHANG X Y,XIE J C,LIU J L,et al.Analysis on the regional type of water-saving society based on entropy weight method.Journal of Natural Resources,2017,32(2):301-309.]
[13]刘轩,岳德鹏,马梦超.基于变异系数法的北京市山区小流域生态环境质量评价[J].西北林学院学报,2016,31(2):66-71.[LIU X,YUE D P,MA M C.Smal watershed eco-environmental quality appraisal of Beijing mountain area based on coefficient variation.Journal of Northwest Forestry University,2016,31(2):66-71.]
[14]梅国平.基于复相关系数法的公司绩效评价实证研究[J].管理世界,2004(1):145-146.[MEI G P.Empirical study on company performance evaluation based on complex correlation coefficient method.Management World,2004(1):145-146.]
[15]张瑞,刘操,顾永钢,等.基于层次分析法的再生水补给型城市河湖水生态修复技术评价指标体系及其应用[J].环境工程学报,2017,11(6):3545-3554.[ZHANG R,LIU C,GU Y G,et al.Evaluation method of water ecological restoration technologies in urban river and lake supplied by reclaimed water established by analytical hierarchy:Establishing and application.Chinese Journal of Environmental Engineering,2017,11(6):3545-3554.]
[16]张成凤,粟晓玲,蔡焕杰.基于区间层次分析法的榆阳区水资源配置系统和谐性评价研究[J].自然资源学报,2017,32(6):1053-1063.[ZHANG C F,SU X L,CAI H J.Harmony evaluation of water resources allocation system in Yuyang area based on IAHP.Journal of Natural Resources,2017,32(6):1053-1063.]
[17]纪瑞鹏,陈鹏狮,冯锐,等.农业气候资源综合评价方法研究——以辽宁省为例[J].自然资源学报,2010,25(1):121-130.[JI R P,CHEN P S,FENG R,et al.A study on comprehensive evaluation method of agro-climate resources:A case study in Liaoning Province.Journal of Natural Resources,2010,25(1):121-130.]
[18]董斌,陈立平,钱国英.基于遥感的层次分析法和模糊数学模型综合评价森林资源生态适宜性[J].自然资源学报,2011,26(3):468-476.[DONG B,CHEN L P,QIAN G Y.Synthetic evaluation of ecological suitability of forest resources by analytic hierarchy process and fuzzy mathematics model based on remote sensing data.Journal of Natural Resources,2011,26(3):468-476.]
[19]肖庆业,陈建成,张贞.退耕还林工程综合效益评价——以我国10个典型县为例[J].江西社会科学,2014(2):220-224.[XIAO Q Y,CHEN J C,ZHANG Z.Comprehensive benefit evaluation of returning farmland to forest project:Taking 10 typical counties of our country as an example.Jiangxi Social Sciences,2014(2):220-224.]
[20]白庆芹,汪妮,解建仓,等.基于模糊综合评价法的城市河流脆弱性研究[J].水土保持通报,2012,32(1):244-247.[BAI Q Q,WANG N,XIE J C,et al.A study on vulnerability of urban rivers based on fuzzy comprehensive evaluation.Bulletin of Soil and Water Conservation,2012,32(1):244-247.]
[21]舒帮荣,黄琪,刘友兆,等.基于变权的城镇用地扩展生态适宜性空间模糊评价——以江苏省太仓市为例[J].自然资源学报,2012,27(3):402-412.[SHU B R,HUANG Q,LIU Y Z,et al.Spatial fuzzy assessment of ecological suitability for urban land expansion based on variable weights:A case study of Taicang.Journal of Natural Resources,2012,27(3):402-412.]
[22]杨红娟,李杰云.基于熵权-BP神经网络模型的生态系统安全评价[J].昆明理工大学学报(自然科学版),2017,42(5):112-119.[YANG H J,LI J Y.Ecosystem security assessment based on entropy method-BP neural network model.Journal of Kunming University of Science and Technology(Natural Science Edition),2017,42(5):112-119.]
[23]王世东,刘毅,王新闯,等.基于改进决策树模型的矿区土地复垦适宜性评价[J].中国水土保持科学,2016,14(6):35-43.[WANG S D,LIU Y,WANG X C,et al.Suitability evaluation of mining-land reclamation based on improved decision tree model.Science of Soil and Water Conservation,2016,14(6):35-43.]
[24]何晓群,刘文卿.应用回归分析[M].第四版.北京:中国人民大学出版社,2015.[HE X Q,LIU W Q.Applied Regression Analysis.The Fourth Edition.Beijing:China Renmin University Press,2015.]
[25]张景肖,刘燕平.函数性广义线性模型曲线选择的正则化方法[J].统计研究,2012,29(9):95-102.[ZHANG J X,LIU Y P.Regularized methods for curve selection in functional generalized linear model.Statistical Research,2012,29(9):95-102.]
[26]TIBSHIRANI R.Regression shrinkage and selection via the Lasso[J].Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B,1996,58:267-288.
[27]方匡南,章贵军,张惠颖.基于Lasso-logistic模型的个人信用风险预警方法[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2014(2):125-136.[FANG K N,ZHANG G J,ZHANG H Y.Individual credit risk prediction method:Application of a Lasso-logistic model.The Journal of Quantitative&Technical Economics,2014(2):125-136.]
[28]MEIER L,GEER S V D,BUHLMANN P.The group lasso for logistic regression[J].Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B,2008,70:53-71.
[29]BREHENY P,HUANG J.Penalized methods for bi-level variable selection[J].Statistics and Its Interface,2009,2(3):369-380.
[30]HE H,GARCIA E A.Learning from imbalanced data[J].IEEE Transactions on Knowledge&Data Engineering,2009,21(9):1263-1284.
[2]ZHEN L,YAN H M,HU Y F,et al.Overview of ecological restoration technologies and evaluation systems[J].Journal of Resources and Ecology,2017,8(4):315-324.
[3]EULISS N H,SMITH L M,LIU S,et al.Integrating estimates of ecosystem services from conservation programs and practices into models for decision makers[J].Ecological Applications,2011,21(3):S128-S134.
[4]ROJO L,BAUTISTA S,ORR B J,et al.Prevention and restoration actions to combat desertification An integrated assessment:The PRACTICE Project[J].Science et Changements Planetaires—Secheresse,2012,23(3):219-226.
[5]刘国彬,上官周平,姚文艺,等.黄土高原生态工程的生态成效[J].中国科学院院刊,2017,32(1):11-19.[LIU G B,SHANGGUAN Z P,YAO W Y,et al.Ecological effects of soil conservation in Loess Plateau.Bulletin of Chinese Academy of Sciences,2017,32(1):11-19.]
[6]肖庆业.南方地区退耕还林工程效益组合评价研究[M].北京:清华大学出版社,2016.[XIAO Q Y.Benefit Combination Evaluation Research for Conversion of Cropland to Forest Program in Southern China.Beijing:Tsinghua University Press,2016.]
[7]李世东,刘某承,陈应发.美丽生态:理论探索指数评价与发展战略[M].北京:科学出版社,2017.[LI S D,LIU M C,CHEN Y F.Beautiful Ecology:Theoretical Explore Evaluation Index and Development Strategy.Beijing:Science Press,2017.]
[8]刘莲花.基于距离综合评价法的数学核心期刊评价[J].中国科技期刊研究,2015,26(8):871-874.[LIU L H.Evaluation of mathematics core journals based on distance comprehensive evaluation method.Chinese Journal of Scientific and Technical Periodicals,2015,26(8):871-874.]
[9]黄凌云,谢丽团,邱晓兰,等.基于密切值法的福建省生态技术创新能力评价与提升策略[J].科技管理研究,2017,37(14):70-76.[HUANG L Y,XIE L T,QIU X L,et al.Evaluation based on topsis method and promotion strategy of eco-technology innovation capability in Fujian Province.Science and Technology Management Research,2017,37(14):70-76.]
[10]陆文星,梁昌勇,丁勇.一种基于证据距离的客观权重确定方法[J].中国管理科学,2008,16(6):95-99.[LU W X,LIANG C Y,DING Y.A method determining the objective weights of experts based on evidence distance.Chinese Journal of Management Science,2008,16(6):95-99.]
[11]信桂新,杨朝现,杨庆媛,等.用熵权法和改进TOPSIS模型评价高标准基本农田建设后效应[J].农业工程学报,2017,33(1):238-249.[XIN G X,YANG C X,YANG Q Y,et al.Post-evaluation of well-facilitied capital farmland construction based on entropy weight method and improved TOPSIS model.Transactions of the CSAE,2017,33(1):238-249.]
[12]张欣莹,解建仓,刘建林,等.基于熵权法的节水型社会建设区域类型分析[J].自然资源学报,2017,32(2):301-309.[ZHANG X Y,XIE J C,LIU J L,et al.Analysis on the regional type of water-saving society based on entropy weight method.Journal of Natural Resources,2017,32(2):301-309.]
[13]刘轩,岳德鹏,马梦超.基于变异系数法的北京市山区小流域生态环境质量评价[J].西北林学院学报,2016,31(2):66-71.[LIU X,YUE D P,MA M C.Smal watershed eco-environmental quality appraisal of Beijing mountain area based on coefficient variation.Journal of Northwest Forestry University,2016,31(2):66-71.]
[14]梅国平.基于复相关系数法的公司绩效评价实证研究[J].管理世界,2004(1):145-146.[MEI G P.Empirical study on company performance evaluation based on complex correlation coefficient method.Management World,2004(1):145-146.]
[15]张瑞,刘操,顾永钢,等.基于层次分析法的再生水补给型城市河湖水生态修复技术评价指标体系及其应用[J].环境工程学报,2017,11(6):3545-3554.[ZHANG R,LIU C,GU Y G,et al.Evaluation method of water ecological restoration technologies in urban river and lake supplied by reclaimed water established by analytical hierarchy:Establishing and application.Chinese Journal of Environmental Engineering,2017,11(6):3545-3554.]
[16]张成凤,粟晓玲,蔡焕杰.基于区间层次分析法的榆阳区水资源配置系统和谐性评价研究[J].自然资源学报,2017,32(6):1053-1063.[ZHANG C F,SU X L,CAI H J.Harmony evaluation of water resources allocation system in Yuyang area based on IAHP.Journal of Natural Resources,2017,32(6):1053-1063.]
[17]纪瑞鹏,陈鹏狮,冯锐,等.农业气候资源综合评价方法研究——以辽宁省为例[J].自然资源学报,2010,25(1):121-130.[JI R P,CHEN P S,FENG R,et al.A study on comprehensive evaluation method of agro-climate resources:A case study in Liaoning Province.Journal of Natural Resources,2010,25(1):121-130.]
[18]董斌,陈立平,钱国英.基于遥感的层次分析法和模糊数学模型综合评价森林资源生态适宜性[J].自然资源学报,2011,26(3):468-476.[DONG B,CHEN L P,QIAN G Y.Synthetic evaluation of ecological suitability of forest resources by analytic hierarchy process and fuzzy mathematics model based on remote sensing data.Journal of Natural Resources,2011,26(3):468-476.]
[19]肖庆业,陈建成,张贞.退耕还林工程综合效益评价——以我国10个典型县为例[J].江西社会科学,2014(2):220-224.[XIAO Q Y,CHEN J C,ZHANG Z.Comprehensive benefit evaluation of returning farmland to forest project:Taking 10 typical counties of our country as an example.Jiangxi Social Sciences,2014(2):220-224.]
[20]白庆芹,汪妮,解建仓,等.基于模糊综合评价法的城市河流脆弱性研究[J].水土保持通报,2012,32(1):244-247.[BAI Q Q,WANG N,XIE J C,et al.A study on vulnerability of urban rivers based on fuzzy comprehensive evaluation.Bulletin of Soil and Water Conservation,2012,32(1):244-247.]
[21]舒帮荣,黄琪,刘友兆,等.基于变权的城镇用地扩展生态适宜性空间模糊评价——以江苏省太仓市为例[J].自然资源学报,2012,27(3):402-412.[SHU B R,HUANG Q,LIU Y Z,et al.Spatial fuzzy assessment of ecological suitability for urban land expansion based on variable weights:A case study of Taicang.Journal of Natural Resources,2012,27(3):402-412.]
[22]杨红娟,李杰云.基于熵权-BP神经网络模型的生态系统安全评价[J].昆明理工大学学报(自然科学版),2017,42(5):112-119.[YANG H J,LI J Y.Ecosystem security assessment based on entropy method-BP neural network model.Journal of Kunming University of Science and Technology(Natural Science Edition),2017,42(5):112-119.]
[23]王世东,刘毅,王新闯,等.基于改进决策树模型的矿区土地复垦适宜性评价[J].中国水土保持科学,2016,14(6):35-43.[WANG S D,LIU Y,WANG X C,et al.Suitability evaluation of mining-land reclamation based on improved decision tree model.Science of Soil and Water Conservation,2016,14(6):35-43.]
[24]何晓群,刘文卿.应用回归分析[M].第四版.北京:中国人民大学出版社,2015.[HE X Q,LIU W Q.Applied Regression Analysis.The Fourth Edition.Beijing:China Renmin University Press,2015.]
[25]张景肖,刘燕平.函数性广义线性模型曲线选择的正则化方法[J].统计研究,2012,29(9):95-102.[ZHANG J X,LIU Y P.Regularized methods for curve selection in functional generalized linear model.Statistical Research,2012,29(9):95-102.]
[26]TIBSHIRANI R.Regression shrinkage and selection via the Lasso[J].Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B,1996,58:267-288.
[27]方匡南,章贵军,张惠颖.基于Lasso-logistic模型的个人信用风险预警方法[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2014(2):125-136.[FANG K N,ZHANG G J,ZHANG H Y.Individual credit risk prediction method:Application of a Lasso-logistic model.The Journal of Quantitative&Technical Economics,2014(2):125-136.]
[28]MEIER L,GEER S V D,BUHLMANN P.The group lasso for logistic regression[J].Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B,2008,70:53-71.
[29]BREHENY P,HUANG J.Penalized methods for bi-level variable selection[J].Statistics and Its Interface,2009,2(3):369-380.
[30]HE H,GARCIA E A.Learning from imbalanced data[J].IEEE Transactions on Knowledge&Data Engineering,2009,21(9):1263-1284.