低纬高原大气不稳定参数与雷电活动相关性
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摘要
应用云南省2014—2017年闪电资料和探空资料,分析了低纬高原地区大气不稳定参数与雷电活动的相关性,从9个参数中选取了相关性较强的5个参数,运用数理统计方法确定各参数可预测雷电发生的阈值,再运用复相关系数法计算各参数权重,建立雷电潜势预报方程。最后通过预报检验法及个例分析法对方程进行验证,结果显示低纬高原地区大气不稳定参数对雷电活动较为敏感,响应阈值普遍低于平原区域。该预报方程对未来12h雷电活动的发生预报效果显著,具有良好的推广运用价值。
An analysis is made of the correlation between atmospheric instability parameters and lightning activities in the low latitude plateau region in this paper using the lightning information and radiosonde data in Yunnan Province from 2014 to 2017.Five parameters selected from 9 are strongly correlated.The threshold of lightning occurrence for each parameter is determined by means of the mathematical method.The complex correlation coefficient method is used to calculate the weight of each parameter and set up the prediction equation for lightning potential.Finally,the equation is verified by means of forecasting and case analysis.The results show that the atmospheric instability parameters over the low latitude plateau are sensitive to lightning activities.The response threshold is generally lower than that of the plain area.The prediction effectiveness of the prediction equation is significant for the occurrence of lightning activity in the next 12 hours.The equation has good promotion and application value.
An analysis is made of the correlation between atmospheric instability parameters and lightning activities in the low latitude plateau region in this paper using the lightning information and radiosonde data in Yunnan Province from 2014 to 2017.Five parameters selected from 9 are strongly correlated.The threshold of lightning occurrence for each parameter is determined by means of the mathematical method.The complex correlation coefficient method is used to calculate the weight of each parameter and set up the prediction equation for lightning potential.Finally,the equation is verified by means of forecasting and case analysis.The results show that the atmospheric instability parameters over the low latitude plateau are sensitive to lightning activities.The response threshold is generally lower than that of the plain area.The prediction effectiveness of the prediction equation is significant for the occurrence of lightning activity in the next 12 hours.The equation has good promotion and application value.
引文
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[14]曲巧娜,盛春岩,车军辉.山东省多模式强降水落区预报检验[J].气象科技,2016,44(3):392-399.
[2]张喜轩,张翠华.闪电与大气层结因子相关性的探讨[J].气象学报,1990,48(1):102-107.
[3]张腾飞,尹丽云,张杰.云南致灾雷电过程的大气物理量结构特征[J].灾害学,2010,25(3):6-11.
[4]Neumann C J.The thunderstorm of forecasting at the Kennedy Space Center[J].J Appl Meteor,1990,10:921-936.
[5]Solomon R,Baker M.Electrification of New Mexico thunderstorms[J].Mon Wea Rev,1994,122:1878-1886.
[6]郑媛媛,姚晨.不同类型大尺度环流背景下强对流天气的短时预报预警研究[J].气象,2011,37(7):795-801.
[7]苏涛,苗峻峰,韩芙蓉.海风雷暴的观测分析和数值模拟研究进展[J].气象科技,2016,44(1):47-54
[8]殷娴,肖稳安,尹丽云.江苏省雷电活动潜势预报研究[J].热带气象学报,2011,27(5):758-764.
[9]刘海兵,张云峰,李玉塔.江西闪电特征海拔高度影响分析[J].气象科技,2017,45(2):342-348
[10]梅长林.数据分析方法[M].北京:高等教育出版社,2006:125-132.
[11]郭亚军.综合评价理论方法及运用[M].北京:科学出版社,2007:17-44.
[12]Morris L W,Joseph B K.The structure and classification of numerically simulated convective stormsin directionally varying wind shears[J].Mon Wea Rev,1984,112(12):2 479-2 498.
[13]许小峰,郭虎,廖晓农.国外雷电监测和预报研究[M].北京:气象出版社,2003:235-245.
[14]曲巧娜,盛春岩,车军辉.山东省多模式强降水落区预报检验[J].气象科技,2016,44(3):392-399.