南方水稻复种指数变化对国家粮食产能的影响及其政策启示
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摘要
中国南方地区水稻生产的变化对国家粮食安全具有重要影响。本文利用Landsat数据提取1990-2015年南方地区水稻种植制度分布及变化,并分析其对粮食产能的影响。结果表明:①1990-2015年,水稻复种指数从148.3%下降到129.3%,双季稻改种单季稻("双改单")损失的播种面积为253.16万hm~2,区域上以长江中下游地区变化最为突出。南方地区水稻种植制度整体呈现由北向南"双退单进"的变化格局;②1990-2015年,"双改单"导致全国水稻产量减少6.1%,粮食产量减少2.6%。水稻主产区湖南省和江西省以及经济发展较好的浙江省因"双改单"水稻减产幅度较大,均超过13%;③充分利用"双改单"稻田的粮食产能相当于新增耕地223.3万hm~2,为2001-2015年通过土地整治项目新增耕地总量的54%,是2016-2020年全国新增耕地规划目标的1.7倍,可节省约1674.4亿元新增耕地开垦费用。因此,与其追求低质量的"新"耕地,不如充分利用已有的高质量"旧"耕地,政府应转变耕地占补平衡的考核方式,将因提高复种指数增加的播种面积纳入补充指标。
Changes of rice production in Southern China are crucial to national food security.This study employed Landsat images to map the distributions of paddy rice cropping systems in Southern China in 1990 and 2015, and then explored the impact of rice multiple cropping index changes on grain production capacity. The results indicated that:(1) From 1990 to 2015,the multiple cropping index of rice decreased from 148.3% to 129.3%, and the loss area due to conversion of double cropping rice to single cropping rice( "double to single") was 253. 16×104 hm~2. The area with most dramatic changes was located in the Middle-Lower Yangtze Plain. The rice cropping systems in Southern China showed a change pattern of "double cropping rice shrinkage and single cropping rice expansion" from north to south.(2) From 1990 to 2015, "double to single" led to a reduction of 6.1% and 2.6% in rice production and grain production,respectively. Hunan and Jiangxi, located in the main rice producing areas, as well as Zhejiang with better economic development, had a large reduction in rice production due to "double to single", all exceeding 13%.(3) The grain production capacity of "double to single" paddy field is equivalent to that of 223.3×104 hm~2 of newly reclaimed cultivated land. The equivalent newly reclaimed cultivated land is 54% of the total newly reclaimed cultivated land through the land consolidation project during 2001-2015, as well as 1.7 times the target of the newly cultivated land goal for the national land consolidation plan(2016-2020). Making full use of the "double to single" paddy field can save approximately 167.44 billion yuan newly reclaimed cultivated land costs. Therefore, instead of pursuing low-quality "new" arable land, it is better to make full use of the existing high-quality "old" arable land. The government should change the assessment method of cultivated land balance, and incorporate the sown area increased by improving multiple cropping index into the cultivated land compensation indicator.
Changes of rice production in Southern China are crucial to national food security.This study employed Landsat images to map the distributions of paddy rice cropping systems in Southern China in 1990 and 2015, and then explored the impact of rice multiple cropping index changes on grain production capacity. The results indicated that:(1) From 1990 to 2015,the multiple cropping index of rice decreased from 148.3% to 129.3%, and the loss area due to conversion of double cropping rice to single cropping rice( "double to single") was 253. 16×104 hm~2. The area with most dramatic changes was located in the Middle-Lower Yangtze Plain. The rice cropping systems in Southern China showed a change pattern of "double cropping rice shrinkage and single cropping rice expansion" from north to south.(2) From 1990 to 2015, "double to single" led to a reduction of 6.1% and 2.6% in rice production and grain production,respectively. Hunan and Jiangxi, located in the main rice producing areas, as well as Zhejiang with better economic development, had a large reduction in rice production due to "double to single", all exceeding 13%.(3) The grain production capacity of "double to single" paddy field is equivalent to that of 223.3×104 hm~2 of newly reclaimed cultivated land. The equivalent newly reclaimed cultivated land is 54% of the total newly reclaimed cultivated land through the land consolidation project during 2001-2015, as well as 1.7 times the target of the newly cultivated land goal for the national land consolidation plan(2016-2020). Making full use of the "double to single" paddy field can save approximately 167.44 billion yuan newly reclaimed cultivated land costs. Therefore, instead of pursuing low-quality "new" arable land, it is better to make full use of the existing high-quality "old" arable land. The government should change the assessment method of cultivated land balance, and incorporate the sown area increased by improving multiple cropping index into the cultivated land compensation indicator.
引文
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[11]Song W,Pijanowski B C.The effects of China's cultivated land balance program on potential land productivity at a national scale.Applied Geography,2014,46:158-170.
[12]Wang J,Chen Y,Shao X,et al.Land-use changes and policy dimension driving forces in China:Present,trend and future.Land Use Policy,2012,29:737-749.
[13]Yang Wanjiang,Wang Yi.Analysis on cropping changes and contributing factors of double cropping:Empirical study based on 10 major rice producing provinces.Rural Economy,2013(11):24-28.[杨万江,王绎.我国双季稻区复种变化及影响因素分析:基于10个水稻主产省的实证研究.农村经济,2013(11):24-28.]
[14]Wang R,Li X,Tan M,et al.Inter-provincial differences in rice multi-cropping changes in main double-cropping rice area in China:Evidence from provinces and households.Chinese Geographical Science,2018:1-12.DOI:https://doi.org/10.1007/s11769-018-0972-4
[15]Xin Liangjie,Li Xiubin.Changes of multiple cropping in double cropping rice area of southern China and its policy implications.Journal of Natural Resources,2009,24(1):58-65.[辛良杰,李秀彬.近年来我国南方双季稻区复种的变化及其政策启示.自然资源学报,2009,24(1):58-65.]
[16]Cheng Yeqing,Zhang Pingyu.Regional patterns changes of Chinese grain production and respose of commodity grain in base in Northeast China.Scientia Geographica Snica,2005,25(5):3-10.[程叶青,张平宇.中国粮食生产的区域格局变化及东北商品粮基地的响应.地理科学,2005,25(5):3-10.]
[17]Xie Hualin,Liu Guiying.Spatiotemporal difference and determinants of multiplecropping index in China during 1998-2012.Acta Geographica Sinica,2015,70(4):604-614.[谢花林,刘桂英.1998-2012年中国耕地复种指数时空差异及动因.地理学报,2015,70(4):604-614.]
[18]Qiu B,Qi W,Tang Z,et al.Rice cropping density and intensity lessened in southeast China during the twenty-first century.Environmental Monitoring and Assessment,2016,188(1):5.
[19]Ding Mingjun,Chen Qian,Xin Liangjie,et al.Spatial and temporal variations of multiple cropping index in China based on SPOT-NDVI during 1999-2013.Acta Geographica Sinica,2015,70(7):1080-1090.[丁明军,陈倩,辛良杰.1999-2013年中国耕地复种指数的时空演变格局.地理学报,2015,70(7):1080-1090.]
[20]Liu J,Kuang W,Zhang Z,et al.Spatiotemporal characteristics,patterns,and causes of land-use changes in China since the late 1980s.Journal of Geographical Sciences,2014,24(2):195-210.
[21]Li P,Feng Z,Jiang L,et al.Changes in rice cropping systems in the Poyang Lake Region,China during 2004-2010.Journal of Geographical Sciences,2012,22(4):653-668.
[22]Wang Jiayue,Xin Liangjie.Spatial-temporal variations of cultivated land and grain production in China based on GlobeLand30.Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering(Transactions of the CSAE),2017,33(22):1-8.[王佳月,辛良杰.基于Globe Land30数据的中国耕地与粮食生产的时空变化分析.农业工程学报,2017,33(22):1-8.]
[23]Wang Jieyong,Liu Yansui.The changes of grain output center of gravity and its driving forces in China since 1990.Resources Science,2009,31(7):1188-1194.[王介勇,刘彦随.1990年至2005年中国粮食产量重心演进格局及其驱动机制.资源科学,2009,31(7):1188-1194.]
[24]Li T,Long H,Zhang Y,et al.Analysis of the spatial mismatch of grain production and farmland resources in China based on the potential crop rotation system.Land Use Policy,2017,60:26-36.
[25]Jin Shulan,Hou Lichun,Xu Lei.The relationship of multiple cropping index of arableland change and national food security in the middle and lower reaches of Yangtze River.Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin,2011,27(17):208-212.[金姝兰,侯立春,徐磊.长江中下游地区耕地复种指数变化与国家粮食安全.中国农学通报,2011,27(17):208-212.]
[26]Yan Huimin,Liu Jiyuan,Cao Mingkui.Remotely sensed multiple cropping index variations in China during 1981-2000.Acta Geographica Sinica,2005,60(4):559-566.[闫慧敏,刘纪远,曹明奎.近20年中国耕地复种指数的时空变化.地理学报,2005,60(4):559-566.]
[27]Liu Y,Song W,Deng X.Changes in crop type distribution in Zhangye City of the Heihe River Basin,China.Applied Geography,2016,76:22-36.
[28]Liu Zhenhuan,Li Zhengguo,Tang Pengqin,et al.Spatial-temporal changes of rice area and production in China during1980-2010.Acta Geographica Sinica,2013,68(5):680-693.[刘珍环,李正国,唐鹏钦,等.近30年中国水稻种植区域与产量时空变化分析.地理学报,2013,68(5):680-693.]
[29]Li Y,Li X,Tan M,et al.The impact of cultivated land spatial shift on food crop production in China,1990-2010.Land Degradation&Development,2018,29(6):1652-1659.
[30]Dong J,Xiao X,Kou W,et al.Tracking the dynamics of paddy rice planting area in 1986-2010 through time series Landsat images and phenology-based algorithms.Remote Sensing of Environment,2015,160:99-113.
[31]Du X,Zhang X,Jin X.Assessing the effectiveness of land consolidation for improving agricultural productivity in China.Land Use Policy,2018,70:360-367.
[32]Xin L,Li X.China should not massively reclaim new farmland.Land Use Policy,2018,72:12-15.
[2]Huang J,Yang G.Understanding recent challenges and new food policy in China.Global Food Security,2017,12:119-126.
[3]Fu Zeqiang,Cai Yunlong,Yang Youxiao,et al.Research on the relationship of cultivated land change and food security in China.Journal of Natural Resources,2001,16(4):313-319.[傅泽强,蔡运龙,杨友孝,等.中国粮食安全与耕地资源变化的相关分析.自然资源学报,2001,16(4):313-319.]
[4]National Bureau of Statistics of China.China Statistical Yearbook.Beijing:China Statistics Press,2017.[中华人民共和国国家统计局.中国统计年鉴2017.北京:中国统计出版社,2017.]
[5]Lichtenberg E,Ding C.Assessing farmland protection policy in China.Land Use Policy,2008,25(1):59-68.
[6]Kong X B.China must protect high-quality arable land.Nature,2014,506(7486):7.DOI:https://doi.org/0.1038/506007a
[7]Zhang K,Yu Z,Li X,et al.Land use change and land degradation in China from 1991 to 2001.Land Degradation&Development,2007,18(2):209-219.
[8]Liu X,Zhao C,Song W.Review of the evolution of cultivated land protection policies in the period following China's reform and liberalization.Land Use Policy,2017,67:660-669.
[9]Jin X,Zhang Z,Wu X,et al.Co-ordination of land exploitation,exploitable farmland reserves and national planning in China.Land Use Policy,2016,57:682-693.
[10]Song W,Liu M.Farmland conversion decreases regional and national land quality in China.Land Degradation&Development,2017,28(2):459-471.
[11]Song W,Pijanowski B C.The effects of China's cultivated land balance program on potential land productivity at a national scale.Applied Geography,2014,46:158-170.
[12]Wang J,Chen Y,Shao X,et al.Land-use changes and policy dimension driving forces in China:Present,trend and future.Land Use Policy,2012,29:737-749.
[13]Yang Wanjiang,Wang Yi.Analysis on cropping changes and contributing factors of double cropping:Empirical study based on 10 major rice producing provinces.Rural Economy,2013(11):24-28.[杨万江,王绎.我国双季稻区复种变化及影响因素分析:基于10个水稻主产省的实证研究.农村经济,2013(11):24-28.]
[14]Wang R,Li X,Tan M,et al.Inter-provincial differences in rice multi-cropping changes in main double-cropping rice area in China:Evidence from provinces and households.Chinese Geographical Science,2018:1-12.DOI:https://doi.org/10.1007/s11769-018-0972-4
[15]Xin Liangjie,Li Xiubin.Changes of multiple cropping in double cropping rice area of southern China and its policy implications.Journal of Natural Resources,2009,24(1):58-65.[辛良杰,李秀彬.近年来我国南方双季稻区复种的变化及其政策启示.自然资源学报,2009,24(1):58-65.]
[16]Cheng Yeqing,Zhang Pingyu.Regional patterns changes of Chinese grain production and respose of commodity grain in base in Northeast China.Scientia Geographica Snica,2005,25(5):3-10.[程叶青,张平宇.中国粮食生产的区域格局变化及东北商品粮基地的响应.地理科学,2005,25(5):3-10.]
[17]Xie Hualin,Liu Guiying.Spatiotemporal difference and determinants of multiplecropping index in China during 1998-2012.Acta Geographica Sinica,2015,70(4):604-614.[谢花林,刘桂英.1998-2012年中国耕地复种指数时空差异及动因.地理学报,2015,70(4):604-614.]
[18]Qiu B,Qi W,Tang Z,et al.Rice cropping density and intensity lessened in southeast China during the twenty-first century.Environmental Monitoring and Assessment,2016,188(1):5.
[19]Ding Mingjun,Chen Qian,Xin Liangjie,et al.Spatial and temporal variations of multiple cropping index in China based on SPOT-NDVI during 1999-2013.Acta Geographica Sinica,2015,70(7):1080-1090.[丁明军,陈倩,辛良杰.1999-2013年中国耕地复种指数的时空演变格局.地理学报,2015,70(7):1080-1090.]
[20]Liu J,Kuang W,Zhang Z,et al.Spatiotemporal characteristics,patterns,and causes of land-use changes in China since the late 1980s.Journal of Geographical Sciences,2014,24(2):195-210.
[21]Li P,Feng Z,Jiang L,et al.Changes in rice cropping systems in the Poyang Lake Region,China during 2004-2010.Journal of Geographical Sciences,2012,22(4):653-668.
[22]Wang Jiayue,Xin Liangjie.Spatial-temporal variations of cultivated land and grain production in China based on GlobeLand30.Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering(Transactions of the CSAE),2017,33(22):1-8.[王佳月,辛良杰.基于Globe Land30数据的中国耕地与粮食生产的时空变化分析.农业工程学报,2017,33(22):1-8.]
[23]Wang Jieyong,Liu Yansui.The changes of grain output center of gravity and its driving forces in China since 1990.Resources Science,2009,31(7):1188-1194.[王介勇,刘彦随.1990年至2005年中国粮食产量重心演进格局及其驱动机制.资源科学,2009,31(7):1188-1194.]
[24]Li T,Long H,Zhang Y,et al.Analysis of the spatial mismatch of grain production and farmland resources in China based on the potential crop rotation system.Land Use Policy,2017,60:26-36.
[25]Jin Shulan,Hou Lichun,Xu Lei.The relationship of multiple cropping index of arableland change and national food security in the middle and lower reaches of Yangtze River.Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin,2011,27(17):208-212.[金姝兰,侯立春,徐磊.长江中下游地区耕地复种指数变化与国家粮食安全.中国农学通报,2011,27(17):208-212.]
[26]Yan Huimin,Liu Jiyuan,Cao Mingkui.Remotely sensed multiple cropping index variations in China during 1981-2000.Acta Geographica Sinica,2005,60(4):559-566.[闫慧敏,刘纪远,曹明奎.近20年中国耕地复种指数的时空变化.地理学报,2005,60(4):559-566.]
[27]Liu Y,Song W,Deng X.Changes in crop type distribution in Zhangye City of the Heihe River Basin,China.Applied Geography,2016,76:22-36.
[28]Liu Zhenhuan,Li Zhengguo,Tang Pengqin,et al.Spatial-temporal changes of rice area and production in China during1980-2010.Acta Geographica Sinica,2013,68(5):680-693.[刘珍环,李正国,唐鹏钦,等.近30年中国水稻种植区域与产量时空变化分析.地理学报,2013,68(5):680-693.]
[29]Li Y,Li X,Tan M,et al.The impact of cultivated land spatial shift on food crop production in China,1990-2010.Land Degradation&Development,2018,29(6):1652-1659.
[30]Dong J,Xiao X,Kou W,et al.Tracking the dynamics of paddy rice planting area in 1986-2010 through time series Landsat images and phenology-based algorithms.Remote Sensing of Environment,2015,160:99-113.
[31]Du X,Zhang X,Jin X.Assessing the effectiveness of land consolidation for improving agricultural productivity in China.Land Use Policy,2018,70:360-367.
[32]Xin L,Li X.China should not massively reclaim new farmland.Land Use Policy,2018,72:12-15.