耕地再生与循环:中国粮食均衡的复种指数与生态安全
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摘要
从粮食供需均衡的两个方面,分析研究1949—2016年我国在粮食生产环节上的耕地面积、播种面积、单产、总产量等方面的过程和各种数量参数,以及从消费环节研究我国城市居民、农村居民的基本口粮需求、生活需求、生产需求和总需求的各项数量参数指标,并在此基础上,建立供需均衡的数量分析模型,分析各个年度的均衡结果,并探讨我国长期粮食安全问题。从1990—1999年,我国粮食供需总均衡逐渐出现"赤字",我国粮食的总需求量超过生产供给量。从根本上解决我国粮食安全问题,其中关键的因素是制订政策提高农民"种粮"的积极性,在现有耕地的基础上,严格促进复种指数的增加,起码从现在的0.9左右,增加到1.0～2.0。
From two aspects of the equilibrium of supply and demand of grain, this paper analyzed food production in China from 1949 to 2016 of the total farmland area, planting area, yield, production process and various aspects such as the number of parameters, as well as from consumption link research basic ration demand of urban residents and rural residents, the life needs, the production requirements and the number of total demand parameters. On the equilibrium between supply and demand of China, the equilibrium results of each year were analyzed and China's long-term food security was explored. From the period of 1990-1999, China's total balance of grain supply and demand had gradually appeared deficit, and the total demand for grain in China had exceeded production and supply. Fundamentally solving the problem of food security in China, the key factor is to formulate policies to increase farmers' enthusiasm for"grain growing", and strictly promote the re-plantation indexes from 0.9 to 1.0-2.0.
From two aspects of the equilibrium of supply and demand of grain, this paper analyzed food production in China from 1949 to 2016 of the total farmland area, planting area, yield, production process and various aspects such as the number of parameters, as well as from consumption link research basic ration demand of urban residents and rural residents, the life needs, the production requirements and the number of total demand parameters. On the equilibrium between supply and demand of China, the equilibrium results of each year were analyzed and China's long-term food security was explored. From the period of 1990-1999, China's total balance of grain supply and demand had gradually appeared deficit, and the total demand for grain in China had exceeded production and supply. Fundamentally solving the problem of food security in China, the key factor is to formulate policies to increase farmers' enthusiasm for"grain growing", and strictly promote the re-plantation indexes from 0.9 to 1.0-2.0.
引文
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[3]钟甫宁.关于当前粮食安全的形势判断和政策建议[J].农业经济与管理,2011(1):5-8.
[4]汪文忠.全球背景下中国粮食贸易和安全问题探讨[J].粮食问题研究,2018(2):28-31.
[5]孙鸿烈.充分利用我国国土资源[J].自然资源,1997(1):9-11.
[6]鲁靖,邓晶.中国粮食贸易特征的原因分析与对策[J].国际贸易问题,2006(5):17-23.
[7]王梅,曲福田.基于变异率的中国50多年耕地变化动因分析[J].资源科学,2005(2):39-44.
[8]傅兆翔.中国粮食消费现状分析及展望[J].农业展望,2017(5):91-94.
[9]肖玉,成升魁,谢高地,等.我国主要粮食品种供给与消费平衡分析[J].自然资源学报,2017,32(6):927-936.
[10]钟晓青.我国人口增长的总和生育率模型及人口预警[J].生态学报,2009,8(29):4 464-4 474.
[11]钟晓青.中国人口种群百年生育图及“TFR=1或2”的抉择[J].中国公共卫生管理,2014,30(3):316-320.
[12]钟晓青.绿色建筑新体系的若干理论问题探讨[J].建筑学报,1996,38(2):44-46.
[13]钟晓青.从田园城市、园林城市到生态城市[J].生态科学,1996,1(28):42-45.
[14]钟晓青.2017:生态工程与规划(高等院校“十三五”规划教材)[M].北京:科学出版社,2017.