1980–2015年山东省耕地利用集约度的时序变化及其驱动因素（英文）
|
摘要
基于1980-2015年的《全国农产品成本收益资料》与《山东统计年鉴》等基础资料,以耕地利用过程中的主要粮食作物和经济作物为例,探讨了山东省耕地利用集约度及其构成的时序变化特征,并进一步分析了其主要驱动因素。结果表明:(1)1980–2015年,山东省主要农作物总集约度呈上升趋势,由919.73 Yuan hm~(–2)上升到3285.06 Yuan hm~(–2),其中经济作物多年平均集约度高于粮食作物;主要农作物的人工成本和物质成本均呈增加趋势,粮食作物的物质投入远高于人工投入,而经济作物的人工投入远高于物质投入。(2)山东省主要农作物劳动集约度呈下降趋势,由1980年的501.75 d hm~(-2)下降到2015年的161.93 d hm~(–2),粮食作物相对于经济作物劳动集约度水平低且下降速率大;而资本集约度水平不断上升,由1980年的518.33Yuanhm~(–2)上升到2015年的1159.95 Yuan hm~(–2),其中种子、农家肥、化肥、农药和排灌等增产性投入比重逐渐下降,而农业机械等省工性投入比重增长显著。(3)山东省耕地利用集约度与农业劳动力数量、人均耕地面积呈显著负相关;最主要的直接驱动因素是农作物单位成本纯收益,不过在时间响应上滞后1～3年;最主要的间接驱动因素是农业政策的改革。
Based on the cost-income data of agricultural products and relevant statistical data, taking major grain crops and economic crops in the process of cultivated land use as study cases, we studied characteristics of the temporal variation of cultivated land use intensity and its composition in Shandong Province from 1980 to 2015, and then analyzed its main driving factors. The results showed that:(1) The total intensity of major crops in Shandong Province showed a rising trend from 919.73 Yuan ha~(–1) in 1980 to 3285.06 Yuan ha~(–1) in 2015, and the average annual intensity of economic crops was higher than that of grain crops. The labor cost and material cost of major crops both showed an increasing trend, but the material input was much higher than labor input for grain crops, while the labor input was much higher than material input for economic crops.(2) The labor intensity of major crops in Shandong Province showed a decreasing trend from 501.75 man-day ha~(–1) in 1980 to 161.93 man-day ha~(–1) in 2015. The labor intensity of grain crops was lower than that of economic crops and its decline rate was fast. On the contrary, the capital intensity showed an increasing trend from 518.33 Yuan ha~(–1) in 1980 to 1159.95 Yuan ha~(–1) in 2015. In the internal composition of capital intensity, the proportion of yield-increasing inputs such as seed, farmyard manure, fertilizer, pesticide and drainage and irrigation decreased gradually, while the proportion of labor-saving inputs such as agricultural machinery increased significantly.(3) The cultivated land use intensity in Shandong Province had significant negative correlations with the amount of agricultural labor and cultivated land area per capita. The primary direct driving factor was the net income per unit cost of major crops, but the time response lagged by 1–3 years. The main indirect driving factor was the reform of agricultural policy.
Based on the cost-income data of agricultural products and relevant statistical data, taking major grain crops and economic crops in the process of cultivated land use as study cases, we studied characteristics of the temporal variation of cultivated land use intensity and its composition in Shandong Province from 1980 to 2015, and then analyzed its main driving factors. The results showed that:(1) The total intensity of major crops in Shandong Province showed a rising trend from 919.73 Yuan ha~(–1) in 1980 to 3285.06 Yuan ha~(–1) in 2015, and the average annual intensity of economic crops was higher than that of grain crops. The labor cost and material cost of major crops both showed an increasing trend, but the material input was much higher than labor input for grain crops, while the labor input was much higher than material input for economic crops.(2) The labor intensity of major crops in Shandong Province showed a decreasing trend from 501.75 man-day ha~(–1) in 1980 to 161.93 man-day ha~(–1) in 2015. The labor intensity of grain crops was lower than that of economic crops and its decline rate was fast. On the contrary, the capital intensity showed an increasing trend from 518.33 Yuan ha~(–1) in 1980 to 1159.95 Yuan ha~(–1) in 2015. In the internal composition of capital intensity, the proportion of yield-increasing inputs such as seed, farmyard manure, fertilizer, pesticide and drainage and irrigation decreased gradually, while the proportion of labor-saving inputs such as agricultural machinery increased significantly.(3) The cultivated land use intensity in Shandong Province had significant negative correlations with the amount of agricultural labor and cultivated land area per capita. The primary direct driving factor was the net income per unit cost of major crops, but the time response lagged by 1–3 years. The main indirect driving factor was the reform of agricultural policy.
引文
Brookfield H C.1972.Intensification and disintensification in Pacific agriculture.Pacific Viewpoint,13:30-48.
Chen Y Q,Li X B,Tian Y J.2009.Structural change of agricultural land use intensity and its regional disparity in China.Journal of Geographical Sciences,19:545-556.
Deng X Z,John Gibson,Wang P.2017.Management of trade-offs between cultivated land conversions and land productivity in Shandong Province.Journal of Cleaner Production,142(2):767-774.
Ding M J,Chen Q,Xin L J,et al.2015.Spatial and temporal variations of multiple cropping index in China based on SPOT-NDVI during 1999-2013.Acta Geographica Sinica,70:1080-1090.(in Chinese)
Du G M,Liu Y S.2013.Evaluating and zoning intensive utilization of cultivated land in Heilongjiang Province.Resources Sciences,35:554-560.(in Chinese)
Guo S,Shen G P,Chen Z M,et al.2014.Embodied cultivated land use in China 1987-2007.Ecological Indicators,47:198-209.
Hao H G,Li X B.2011.Agricultural land use intensity and its determinants in ecologically-vulnerable areas in North China:A case study of Taipusi County,Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region.Journal of Resources and Ecology,2:117-125.
Hao H G,Li X B,Zhang J P.2013.Impacts of part-time farming on agricultural land use in ecologically-vulnerable areas in North China.Journal of Resources and Ecology,4:70-79.
Huang J K,Wu Y H,S Rozelle.2009.Moving off the farm and intensifying agricultural production in Shandong:A case study of rural labor market linkages in China.Agricultural Economics,40(2):203-218.
Kehoe L,Kuemmerle T,Meyer C,et al.2015.Global patterns of agricultural land-use intensity and vertebrate diversity.Diversity and Distributions,21:1308-1318.
Kilic T,C Carletto,J Miluka,et al.2009.Rural nonfarm income and its impact on agriculture:Evidence from Albania.Agricultural Economics,40:139-160
Lambin E F,Meyforidt P.2011.Global land use change,economic globalization,and the looming land scarcity.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences,108:3465-3472.
Li H,Wu Y Z,Huang X J,et al.2017.Spatial-temporal evolution and classification of marginalization of cultivated land in the process of urbanization.Habitat International,61:1-8.
Li X B.1999.Change of arable land area in China during the past 20 years and its policy implications.Journal of Natural Resources,14:329-333.(in Chinese)
Li X B,Wang X H.2003.Changes in agricultural land use in China:1981-2000.Asian Geographer,22:27-42.
Li X B,Zhu H Y,Tan M H,et al.2008.Measurement of land use intensity.Progress in Geography,27:12-17.(in Chinese)
Liu C W,Li X B.2006a.Regional disparity in the changes of agricultural land use intensity in China during 1980-2002.Journal of Geographical Sciences,16:286-292.
Liu C W,Li X B.2006b.Time-sequence characteristics of the annual changes of the agricultural land use in China during the period1980-2002.Transactions of the CSAE,22:194-198.(in Chinese)
Liu G S,Wang H M,Cheng Y X,et al.2016.The impact of rural out-migration on arable land use intensity:Evidence from mountain areas in Guangdong,China.Land Use Policy,59:569-579.
Pang Y,Wang B H,Liu X Z,et al.2007.Comprehensive efficiency of the cultivated land utilization:a case study in Shandong Province.Resources Science,29:131-136.(in Chinese)
Smith P,House J I,Bustamante M,et al.2016.Global change pressures on soils from land use and management.Global Change Biology,22:1008-1028.
Theo van der Sluis,Bas Pedroli,S?ren B.P.Kristensen,et al.2016.Changing land use intensity in Europe-Recent processes in selected case studies.Land Use Policy,57:777-785.
Verburg P H.,Neumann K.,Nol L,et al.2011.Challenges in using land use and land cover data for global change studies.Global Change Biology,17:974-989.
Wang G G,Liu Y S,Chen Y F.2014.Dynamic trends and driving forces of land use intensification of cultivated land in China.Journal of Geographical Sciences,25:45-57.
Wang X Y,Yan J Z.2015.Cultivated land use intensity and its influencing factors of households of different livelihood strategies:A case study of12 typical villages in Chongqing Municipality.Geographical Research,34:895-908.(in Chinese)
Wu Y L,Gu X,Zhou Y.2012.Factors analysis on intensive use of cultivated land from the viewpoint of farmers in Hubei Province.China Land Sciences,26:50-55.(in Chinese)
Xie H L,He Y F,Zou J L,et al.2016.Spatio-temporal difference analysis of cultivated land use intensity based on emergy in the Poyang Lake Eco-economic Zone of China.Journal of Geographical Sciences,26:1412-1430.
Xie H L,Liu G Y.2015.Spatiotemporal differences and influencing factors of multiple cropping index in China during 1998-2012.Journal of Geographical Sciences,25:1283-1297.
Yan H M,Liu J Y,Huang H Q,et al.2009.Assessing the consequence of land use change on agricultural productivity in China.Global and Planetary Change,12:1-7.
Yao C S,Huang L,LüX,et al.2014.Temporal and spatial change of cultivated land use intensity in China based on emergy theory.Transactions of the CSAE,30:1-12.(in Chinese)
Yao G R,Liu G Y,Xie H L.2014.Spatiotemporal difference and driving forces of input factors intensity for arable land-use in China.Journal of Natural Resources,29:1836-1848.(in Chinese)
Yang H,Li X B.2000.Cultivated land and food supply in China.Land Use Policy,17:73-88.
Zhang L,Zhang F R,An P L,et al.2008.Comparative study of cultivated land use intensive degree and its change law at different economic levels.Transactions of the CSAE,24:108-112.(in Chinese)
Zhao J,Yang G Q.2010.Cannonical correlation analysis on the influencing factors of the change of cultivated land intensive use degree.China Population,Resources and Environment,20:103-108.(in Chinese)
Zhu H Y,Li X B,Xin L J.2007.Intensity change in cultivated land use in China and its policy implications.Journal of Natural Resources,22:907-915.(in Chinese)
Chen Y Q,Li X B,Tian Y J.2009.Structural change of agricultural land use intensity and its regional disparity in China.Journal of Geographical Sciences,19:545-556.
Deng X Z,John Gibson,Wang P.2017.Management of trade-offs between cultivated land conversions and land productivity in Shandong Province.Journal of Cleaner Production,142(2):767-774.
Ding M J,Chen Q,Xin L J,et al.2015.Spatial and temporal variations of multiple cropping index in China based on SPOT-NDVI during 1999-2013.Acta Geographica Sinica,70:1080-1090.(in Chinese)
Du G M,Liu Y S.2013.Evaluating and zoning intensive utilization of cultivated land in Heilongjiang Province.Resources Sciences,35:554-560.(in Chinese)
Guo S,Shen G P,Chen Z M,et al.2014.Embodied cultivated land use in China 1987-2007.Ecological Indicators,47:198-209.
Hao H G,Li X B.2011.Agricultural land use intensity and its determinants in ecologically-vulnerable areas in North China:A case study of Taipusi County,Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region.Journal of Resources and Ecology,2:117-125.
Hao H G,Li X B,Zhang J P.2013.Impacts of part-time farming on agricultural land use in ecologically-vulnerable areas in North China.Journal of Resources and Ecology,4:70-79.
Huang J K,Wu Y H,S Rozelle.2009.Moving off the farm and intensifying agricultural production in Shandong:A case study of rural labor market linkages in China.Agricultural Economics,40(2):203-218.
Kehoe L,Kuemmerle T,Meyer C,et al.2015.Global patterns of agricultural land-use intensity and vertebrate diversity.Diversity and Distributions,21:1308-1318.
Kilic T,C Carletto,J Miluka,et al.2009.Rural nonfarm income and its impact on agriculture:Evidence from Albania.Agricultural Economics,40:139-160
Lambin E F,Meyforidt P.2011.Global land use change,economic globalization,and the looming land scarcity.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences,108:3465-3472.
Li H,Wu Y Z,Huang X J,et al.2017.Spatial-temporal evolution and classification of marginalization of cultivated land in the process of urbanization.Habitat International,61:1-8.
Li X B.1999.Change of arable land area in China during the past 20 years and its policy implications.Journal of Natural Resources,14:329-333.(in Chinese)
Li X B,Wang X H.2003.Changes in agricultural land use in China:1981-2000.Asian Geographer,22:27-42.
Li X B,Zhu H Y,Tan M H,et al.2008.Measurement of land use intensity.Progress in Geography,27:12-17.(in Chinese)
Liu C W,Li X B.2006a.Regional disparity in the changes of agricultural land use intensity in China during 1980-2002.Journal of Geographical Sciences,16:286-292.
Liu C W,Li X B.2006b.Time-sequence characteristics of the annual changes of the agricultural land use in China during the period1980-2002.Transactions of the CSAE,22:194-198.(in Chinese)
Liu G S,Wang H M,Cheng Y X,et al.2016.The impact of rural out-migration on arable land use intensity:Evidence from mountain areas in Guangdong,China.Land Use Policy,59:569-579.
Pang Y,Wang B H,Liu X Z,et al.2007.Comprehensive efficiency of the cultivated land utilization:a case study in Shandong Province.Resources Science,29:131-136.(in Chinese)
Smith P,House J I,Bustamante M,et al.2016.Global change pressures on soils from land use and management.Global Change Biology,22:1008-1028.
Theo van der Sluis,Bas Pedroli,S?ren B.P.Kristensen,et al.2016.Changing land use intensity in Europe-Recent processes in selected case studies.Land Use Policy,57:777-785.
Verburg P H.,Neumann K.,Nol L,et al.2011.Challenges in using land use and land cover data for global change studies.Global Change Biology,17:974-989.
Wang G G,Liu Y S,Chen Y F.2014.Dynamic trends and driving forces of land use intensification of cultivated land in China.Journal of Geographical Sciences,25:45-57.
Wang X Y,Yan J Z.2015.Cultivated land use intensity and its influencing factors of households of different livelihood strategies:A case study of12 typical villages in Chongqing Municipality.Geographical Research,34:895-908.(in Chinese)
Wu Y L,Gu X,Zhou Y.2012.Factors analysis on intensive use of cultivated land from the viewpoint of farmers in Hubei Province.China Land Sciences,26:50-55.(in Chinese)
Xie H L,He Y F,Zou J L,et al.2016.Spatio-temporal difference analysis of cultivated land use intensity based on emergy in the Poyang Lake Eco-economic Zone of China.Journal of Geographical Sciences,26:1412-1430.
Xie H L,Liu G Y.2015.Spatiotemporal differences and influencing factors of multiple cropping index in China during 1998-2012.Journal of Geographical Sciences,25:1283-1297.
Yan H M,Liu J Y,Huang H Q,et al.2009.Assessing the consequence of land use change on agricultural productivity in China.Global and Planetary Change,12:1-7.
Yao C S,Huang L,LüX,et al.2014.Temporal and spatial change of cultivated land use intensity in China based on emergy theory.Transactions of the CSAE,30:1-12.(in Chinese)
Yao G R,Liu G Y,Xie H L.2014.Spatiotemporal difference and driving forces of input factors intensity for arable land-use in China.Journal of Natural Resources,29:1836-1848.(in Chinese)
Yang H,Li X B.2000.Cultivated land and food supply in China.Land Use Policy,17:73-88.
Zhang L,Zhang F R,An P L,et al.2008.Comparative study of cultivated land use intensive degree and its change law at different economic levels.Transactions of the CSAE,24:108-112.(in Chinese)
Zhao J,Yang G Q.2010.Cannonical correlation analysis on the influencing factors of the change of cultivated land intensive use degree.China Population,Resources and Environment,20:103-108.(in Chinese)
Zhu H Y,Li X B,Xin L J.2007.Intensity change in cultivated land use in China and its policy implications.Journal of Natural Resources,22:907-915.(in Chinese)