1965—2017年河源市降水的气候特征分析
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摘要
利用1965—2017年河源国家气象观测站的逐日降水资料,采用数理分析等方法,分析了河源市降水特征及其变化规律。结果表明:近53年河源市的年平均降水量随着时间序列以1.6 mm/年的速率减少,年降水量主要集中在汛期,除后汛期降水量以0.6 mm/年的速率增加外,汛期、前汛期降水量分别以2.28、2.88 mm/年的速率减少。突变检验表明年降水量减少突变点发生在2003年,前汛期降水量减少突变点发生在1983年。后汛期降水量增加突变点发生在1968年;年降水量存在3～4、9～11年周期变化。汛期降水量存在3～4、6～7、10～11年的周期变化;前汛期降水量存在3～4、8～9年的周期变化;后汛期降水量存在2、7～8、11～12、20年的周期变化。
Using the data of daily precipitation of a national weather station at Heyuan from 1965 to 2017, this paper studies the characteristics of its precipitation and variation patterns using the mathematical analysis. The result is shown as follows. For the past 53 years, the city's annual mean precipitation decreased by a rate of 1.6 mm/year. The annual precipitation amount concentrates in raining seasons; the precipitation amount decreased by 2.28 mm/year and 2.88 mm/year in all annual raining seasons and the first annual rain season(from April to June, known as "AMJ rain season"), respectively, but increased by 0.6 mm/year in the second annual rain season(from July to September, known as "JAS rain season"). As shown by an abruptness test, the annual precipitation amount had a point of abrupt decrease in 2003, the AMJ rain season had a point of abrupt decrease in 1983, and the JAS rain season had a point of abrupt increase in 1968. The annual precipitation amount oscillated at the periods of 3 to 4 and 9 to 11 years, with the former being the first primary period. The precipitation amount for all rain seasons showed periodic variations of 3 to 4, 6 to 7 and 10 to 11 years, with the first being the first primary period. For the AMJ rain season, the precipitation amount oscillated at the periods of 3 to 4 and 8 to 9 years, with the former being the first primary period. For the JAS rain season, it oscillated at the periods of 2, 7 to 8, 11 to 12, and 20 years, with the last one being the first primary period.
Using the data of daily precipitation of a national weather station at Heyuan from 1965 to 2017, this paper studies the characteristics of its precipitation and variation patterns using the mathematical analysis. The result is shown as follows. For the past 53 years, the city's annual mean precipitation decreased by a rate of 1.6 mm/year. The annual precipitation amount concentrates in raining seasons; the precipitation amount decreased by 2.28 mm/year and 2.88 mm/year in all annual raining seasons and the first annual rain season(from April to June, known as "AMJ rain season"), respectively, but increased by 0.6 mm/year in the second annual rain season(from July to September, known as "JAS rain season"). As shown by an abruptness test, the annual precipitation amount had a point of abrupt decrease in 2003, the AMJ rain season had a point of abrupt decrease in 1983, and the JAS rain season had a point of abrupt increase in 1968. The annual precipitation amount oscillated at the periods of 3 to 4 and 9 to 11 years, with the former being the first primary period. The precipitation amount for all rain seasons showed periodic variations of 3 to 4, 6 to 7 and 10 to 11 years, with the first being the first primary period. For the AMJ rain season, the precipitation amount oscillated at the periods of 3 to 4 and 8 to 9 years, with the former being the first primary period. For the JAS rain season, it oscillated at the periods of 2, 7 to 8, 11 to 12, and 20 years, with the last one being the first primary period.
引文
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[4]余功梅.华南地区近40年降水的气候特征[J].热带气象学报,1996,2(3):252-256.
[5]彭丽英,苏小山,李英,等.茂名市暴雨的气候特征[J].广东气象,2018,40(2):1-5.
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[7]伍红雨,杜尧东,秦鹏.华南暴雨的气候特征及变化[J].气象,2011,37(10):1262-1269.
[8]曾钦文,刘宝升,曾思亮,等.龙川枫树坝水库库区短时强降水的特征分析[J].广东气象,2015,37(2):28-31.
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[10]庞绮汶,招伟文,潘巧英.佛山市南海区汛期降水特征的分析[J].广东气象,2016,38(5):25-28.
[11]陈芳丽,张子凡,李明华,等.惠州市近40年前汛期暴雨的气候特征分析[J].广东气象,2014,36(3):25-29.
[12]魏凤英.现代气候统计诊断与预测技术[M].2版.北京:气象出版社,2007.
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