辽宁省农业气象干旱灾情时空特征分析
|
摘要
随着气候暖干化趋势不断增强,旱灾对农业生产的影响不断扩大,对人们的生产生活带来了不利影响。本文以辽宁省为研究区,基于1991-2011年21个气象站点旱灾频次、受害程度、受害面积、受害百分比数据,在Matlab和Arc GIS软件平台采用倾向率分析、Mann-Kendall检验、小波分析及克里金插值法,统计分析农业干旱灾情的时空分布特征。结果表明:辽宁省农业干旱灾情发生频次、程度、面积均呈不断扩大趋势,干旱频次倾向率为2.766次/10a、干旱程度为1.68级/10a、干旱面积为188.75万亩/10a,其中,1996年为干旱频次增大的突变点。旱灾的发生以5-10年为较大尺度时间周期,7年左右为振荡强烈的主周期;干旱频次空间分布自西向东递减,受害程度较重的区域为辽西地区;受害面积呈明显的阶梯分布,以阜新市和义县为中心向两侧递减,受害面积百分比的空间分布呈不连续状,阜新、朝阳市为受灾较重的地区;农作物受灾频次在空间分布上亦呈不连续的地域分异。研究结果以期为辽宁省各级政府部门制定针对性防旱对策及指导农业生产提供参考。
As thetrend of drying and warming climate continuously increases, drought disaster becomes a growing impact on agricultural production. Based on the data from 21 meteorological stations during the period 1991 to 2011, this paper selected drought frequency, damage degree, destruction area and damage percentage as indices to analyze the spatiotemporal distribution of meteorological drought disasters in Liaoning province using theMann-Kendall test, wavelet analysis and Kriging interpolation methods on Matlab and ArcGIS software platform. The results showed that the increasing trends were detected in the frequency,damage degree and destruction area of agricultural drought disasters in Liaoning province. The trend of drought frequency was2.766 times/10 a, the damage degree of drought was 1.68 level/10 a and the destruction area was 188.75 million mu/10 a. The year1996 was an abrupt change point of drought frequency. The large scales occurrence of drought disaster was 5-10 years, about 7 years was the main cycle of strong oscillation. The spatial distribution of drought frequency decreasesd from west to east, the relatively higher drought damage degree existed in western Liaoning province. The destruction areas of drought disasters had a clear ladder-like distribution, namely the destruction areas declined to both sides with Fuxin city and Yixian county as the center. The spatial distribution of the percentage of the damaged area was discontinuous, and the Fuxin and Chaoyang cities were the most affected area by drought. The spatial distribution of the frequency of the affected crops wass also discontinuous. This study provides a reference for the government departments of all levels in Liaoning province to specify targeted drought prevention measures and guide agricultural production.
As thetrend of drying and warming climate continuously increases, drought disaster becomes a growing impact on agricultural production. Based on the data from 21 meteorological stations during the period 1991 to 2011, this paper selected drought frequency, damage degree, destruction area and damage percentage as indices to analyze the spatiotemporal distribution of meteorological drought disasters in Liaoning province using theMann-Kendall test, wavelet analysis and Kriging interpolation methods on Matlab and ArcGIS software platform. The results showed that the increasing trends were detected in the frequency,damage degree and destruction area of agricultural drought disasters in Liaoning province. The trend of drought frequency was2.766 times/10 a, the damage degree of drought was 1.68 level/10 a and the destruction area was 188.75 million mu/10 a. The year1996 was an abrupt change point of drought frequency. The large scales occurrence of drought disaster was 5-10 years, about 7 years was the main cycle of strong oscillation. The spatial distribution of drought frequency decreasesd from west to east, the relatively higher drought damage degree existed in western Liaoning province. The destruction areas of drought disasters had a clear ladder-like distribution, namely the destruction areas declined to both sides with Fuxin city and Yixian county as the center. The spatial distribution of the percentage of the damaged area was discontinuous, and the Fuxin and Chaoyang cities were the most affected area by drought. The spatial distribution of the frequency of the affected crops wass also discontinuous. This study provides a reference for the government departments of all levels in Liaoning province to specify targeted drought prevention measures and guide agricultural production.
引文
[1]American Meteorological Society.Meteorological droughtPolicystatement[J].Bulletin of American Meteorological Society,1997,(78):847-849.
[2]康蕾,张红旗.我国五大粮食主产区农业干旱态势综合研究[J].中国生态农业学报,2014,22,(08):928-937.
[3]史建国.黄河流域农业气象干旱时空格局变化研究[D].内蒙古农业大学,2007.
[4]董婷婷.辽宁省农业干旱风险评价研究[J].水利发展研究,2017,17(2):54-56.
[5]廖要明,张存杰.基于MCI的中国干旱时空分布及灾情变化特征[J].气象,2017,43(11):1402-1409.
[6]Ganguli P,Ganguly A R.Space-time trends in U.S.meteorological droughts[J].JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY-REGIONAL STUDIES,2016,(8):235-259.
[7]Putuntica A,Motruc A.Meteorological and Agrometeorological Weather Characterization of Summer Drought of 2015,in the Republic of Moldova[J].Present Environment and Sustainable Development.2017,11(1):83-89.
[8]Murarescu O,Muratoreanu G,Frinculeasa M.Agrometeorological drought in the Romanian plain within the sector delimited by the valleys of the Olt and Buzau Rivers[J].Journal of Environmental Health Science and Engineering.2014,(12).
[9]Capra A,Consoli S,Scicolone B.Long-Term Climatic Variability in Calabria and Effects on Drought and Agrometeorological Parameters[J].Water Resources Manacement.2013,27(2):601-617.
[10]符淙斌,马柱国.全球变化与区域干旱化[J].大气科学,2008,(4):752-760.
[11]周晋红,李丽平,秦爱民.山西气象干旱指标的确定及干旱气候变化研究[J].干旱地区农业研究,2010,28(3):240-247.
[12]赵林,武建军,吕爱锋,等.黄淮海平原及其附近地区干旱时空动态格局分析---基于标准化降雨指数[J].资源科学,2011,33(3):468-476.
[13]许玲燕,王慧敏,段琪彩,等.基于SPEI的云南省夏玉米生长季干旱时空特征分析[J].资源科学,2013,35(5):1024-1034.
[14]Wetterhall F,Winsemius H C,Dutra E,et al.Seasonal predictions of agro-meteorological drought indicators for the Limpopo basin[J].Hydrology and Earth System Sciences.2015,19(6):2577-2586.
[15]Lashkari A,Bannayan M.Agrometeorological study of crop drought vulnerability and avoidance in northeast of Iran[J].Theoretical and Applied Climatology.2013,113(1-2):17-25.
[16]Capra A,Consoli S,Scicolone B.Long-Term Climatic Variability in Calabria and Effects on Drought and Agrometeorological Parameters[J].Water Resources Management.2013,27(2):601-617.
[17]杨东,刘洪敏,郭盼盼,等.1956-2008辽宁省近53年的降水量变化[J].干旱区资源与环境,2011,25(1):96-101.
[18]黄会平.1949-2007年全国干旱灾害特征、成因及减灾对策[J].干旱区资源与环境,2010,24(11):94-98.
[19]李晶,吕志红,林蓉,等.辽宁省近48年气象干旱变化特征分析[J].安徽农业科学,2010,38(7):3566-3568.
[20]吴琼,赵春雨,王大钧,等.1951-2014年辽宁省气象干旱时空特征分析[J].干旱区资源与环境,2016,30(3):151-157.
[21]王文圣,丁晶,衡彤,等.水文序列周期成分和突变特征识别的小波分析法[J].工程勘察,2003,(1):32-35.
[22]邱海军,曹明明,曾彬.基于小波分析的西安降水时间序列的变化特征[J].中国农业气象,2011,32(1):23-27.
[2]康蕾,张红旗.我国五大粮食主产区农业干旱态势综合研究[J].中国生态农业学报,2014,22,(08):928-937.
[3]史建国.黄河流域农业气象干旱时空格局变化研究[D].内蒙古农业大学,2007.
[4]董婷婷.辽宁省农业干旱风险评价研究[J].水利发展研究,2017,17(2):54-56.
[5]廖要明,张存杰.基于MCI的中国干旱时空分布及灾情变化特征[J].气象,2017,43(11):1402-1409.
[6]Ganguli P,Ganguly A R.Space-time trends in U.S.meteorological droughts[J].JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY-REGIONAL STUDIES,2016,(8):235-259.
[7]Putuntica A,Motruc A.Meteorological and Agrometeorological Weather Characterization of Summer Drought of 2015,in the Republic of Moldova[J].Present Environment and Sustainable Development.2017,11(1):83-89.
[8]Murarescu O,Muratoreanu G,Frinculeasa M.Agrometeorological drought in the Romanian plain within the sector delimited by the valleys of the Olt and Buzau Rivers[J].Journal of Environmental Health Science and Engineering.2014,(12).
[9]Capra A,Consoli S,Scicolone B.Long-Term Climatic Variability in Calabria and Effects on Drought and Agrometeorological Parameters[J].Water Resources Manacement.2013,27(2):601-617.
[10]符淙斌,马柱国.全球变化与区域干旱化[J].大气科学,2008,(4):752-760.
[11]周晋红,李丽平,秦爱民.山西气象干旱指标的确定及干旱气候变化研究[J].干旱地区农业研究,2010,28(3):240-247.
[12]赵林,武建军,吕爱锋,等.黄淮海平原及其附近地区干旱时空动态格局分析---基于标准化降雨指数[J].资源科学,2011,33(3):468-476.
[13]许玲燕,王慧敏,段琪彩,等.基于SPEI的云南省夏玉米生长季干旱时空特征分析[J].资源科学,2013,35(5):1024-1034.
[14]Wetterhall F,Winsemius H C,Dutra E,et al.Seasonal predictions of agro-meteorological drought indicators for the Limpopo basin[J].Hydrology and Earth System Sciences.2015,19(6):2577-2586.
[15]Lashkari A,Bannayan M.Agrometeorological study of crop drought vulnerability and avoidance in northeast of Iran[J].Theoretical and Applied Climatology.2013,113(1-2):17-25.
[16]Capra A,Consoli S,Scicolone B.Long-Term Climatic Variability in Calabria and Effects on Drought and Agrometeorological Parameters[J].Water Resources Management.2013,27(2):601-617.
[17]杨东,刘洪敏,郭盼盼,等.1956-2008辽宁省近53年的降水量变化[J].干旱区资源与环境,2011,25(1):96-101.
[18]黄会平.1949-2007年全国干旱灾害特征、成因及减灾对策[J].干旱区资源与环境,2010,24(11):94-98.
[19]李晶,吕志红,林蓉,等.辽宁省近48年气象干旱变化特征分析[J].安徽农业科学,2010,38(7):3566-3568.
[20]吴琼,赵春雨,王大钧,等.1951-2014年辽宁省气象干旱时空特征分析[J].干旱区资源与环境,2016,30(3):151-157.
[21]王文圣,丁晶,衡彤,等.水文序列周期成分和突变特征识别的小波分析法[J].工程勘察,2003,(1):32-35.
[22]邱海军,曹明明,曾彬.基于小波分析的西安降水时间序列的变化特征[J].中国农业气象,2011,32(1):23-27.