农业产业化与农产品物流关系的实证研究
|
摘要
农业产业化与农产品物流业之间存在相互影响和制约的关系。目前的研究缺乏定量的对二者关系影响和程度的研究。该研究采用主成分分析法,对农业产业化和农产品物流的发展水平进行测度,利用对二者测度水平构成的时间序列,通过协整分析和向量误差修正模型来研究二者长期均衡和短期波动,以期为农业产业化与农产品物流融合发展提供建议。结果表明:第一,农业产业化水平和农产品物流水平不断提高,但是总体水平仍然较低;第二,二者之间存在长期均衡关系,短期波动对二者的关系有调整作用,且长期关系的影响大于短期关系,主要原因在于二者水平都偏低,一方水平的变化会引起另一方的显著变化,格兰杰检验验证了二者互为因果关系。未来需要通过组织创新、政府政策支持等将二者融合发展。
Industrialization of agriculture and agricultural product logistics have the mutual constraint relationship.The current study lacks a quantitative study of the impact and extent of the relationship.The principal component analysis method was used to measure the development level of industrialization of agricultural and agricultural product logistics.Using the time series of the two measurement levels,the long-term equilibrium and short-term fluctuations were studied through cointegration test and VECM,in order to provide suggestions for the integration of industrialization of agriculture and agricultural product logistics.The results showed that,the first,the level of industrialization of agricultural and the level of agricultural product logistics continued to increase,but the overall level was still low.The second,there was a long-term equilibrium relationship,and shortterm fluctuations had an adjustment effect on the relationship.The long-term relationship had a greater impact than the short-term one.The main reason was that both levels were low,and changes in one party′s level would cause significant changes in the other.The GRANGER test verifies that the two were causally related to each other.In the future,the two need to be integrated and developed through organizational innovation and government policy support.
Industrialization of agriculture and agricultural product logistics have the mutual constraint relationship.The current study lacks a quantitative study of the impact and extent of the relationship.The principal component analysis method was used to measure the development level of industrialization of agricultural and agricultural product logistics.Using the time series of the two measurement levels,the long-term equilibrium and short-term fluctuations were studied through cointegration test and VECM,in order to provide suggestions for the integration of industrialization of agriculture and agricultural product logistics.The results showed that,the first,the level of industrialization of agricultural and the level of agricultural product logistics continued to increase,but the overall level was still low.The second,there was a long-term equilibrium relationship,and shortterm fluctuations had an adjustment effect on the relationship.The long-term relationship had a greater impact than the short-term one.The main reason was that both levels were low,and changes in one party′s level would cause significant changes in the other.The GRANGER test verifies that the two were causally related to each other.In the future,the two need to be integrated and developed through organizational innovation and government policy support.
引文
[1]周震虹,高阳,王刚.农业产业化发展的理论依据[J].求索,2005(4):21-23.
[2]阳立高,廖进中.城镇化、工业化与农业产业化经济拉动作用分析[J].经济问题探索,2009(3):167-172.
[3]ZHAO Y H,REN A H.Agricultural industrialization organization of marketing strategy analysis[C]//Australia:Proceedings of 2010International Conference on Industry Engineering and Management,M D Forum,17Augusta ST,Allawah Nsw,2218,2010:470-473.
[4]HUANG D.Discussion on the development mode of agricultural industrialization and its innovation[C]//Paris,France:Proceedings of 2017International Conference on Humanities Science,Mangement and Education Technology(HSMET 2017),Atlantis Press,29Avenue Lavmiere,75019,2017:1010-1016.
[5]孙正东.现代农业产业化联合体运营效益分析——一个经验框架与实证[J].华东经济管理,2015(5):108-112.
[6]李燕琼,张学睿.基于价值链的农业产业化龙头企业竞争力培育研究[J].农业经济问题,2009,30(1):53-56.
[7]范德成,胡钰.我国农业产业化发展的障碍因素与策略设计研究[J].科技进步与对策,2012,29(20):68-71.
[8]华静,王玉斌.我国农业产业化发展状况实证研究[J].经济问题探索,2015(4):70-74.
[9]刘瑶,王伊欢.我国农业产业化深度发展的有效路径[J].山东社会科学,2016(1):183-188.
[10]戴伟娟.农产品物流发展的内在动因与机制探析:以国际经验为例[J].上海经济研究,2006(5):15-22.
[11]王树祥,张明玉,黎金银.农产品生产特征及其变化对农产品物流的重要影响[J].管理现代化,2009(5):54-56.
[12]黄祖辉,刘东英.论生鲜农产品物流链的类型与形成机理[J].中国农村经济,2006(11):4-8.
[13]赵玉国.农产品物流:价值在“链条”上[J].商业研究,2009(7):194-196.
[14]武甲斐.我国农产品物流的发展研究[J].经济问题,2011(11):68-70.
[15]张晓林,罗永泰.农产品物流体系重构与优化研究:基于“两头诉苦、中间喊冤”现象的分析[J].商业经济与管理,2011,1(11):5-10.
[16]刘同利.全球化背景下农产品物流发展对策[J].宏观经济管理,2011(11):57-58.
[17]单再成.农产品物流与其影响因素灰色关联度分析[J].系统工程,2012(10):123-126.
[18]徐光顺,王玉峰,王程.生产方式、通道建设与生鲜农产品物流:以内陆农业大省四川为例[J].农村经济,2016(8):78-83.
[19]邬文兵,王俣含,王树祥,等.我国农产品物流系统自组织演化研究:前提、诱因、动力和路径[J].经济问题探索,2017(12):42-49.
[20]DU X F,YAN X F.Empirical study on the competitiveness of Logistics industry in China′s middle region[C]//WMSO,USA:2008International Workshop on Modelling,Simulation and Optimization,Proceedings,IEEE Computer SOC,10662Los Vaqueros Circle,PO BOX 3014,Los Alamitos,CA 90720-1264,2008:210-215.
[21]XU J L,ZHANG M Y,CHEN C.Research on operation mechanism of agricultural products Logistics[C]//London,England:2010International Conference on Management Science and Safety Engineering(MSSE 2010),VOLS I AND II,Acad Serv Group LTD,STE LG,Chanceryhouse,Chancery LN,WC2A1QU,2010:227-231.
[22]刘永清.我国实施农产品物流外包的可行性与效益分析[J].中国流通经济,2008,22(2):26-29.
[23]王静.我国西部农产品物流与农村经济关系的实证分析[J].经济问题,2014(11):86-91.
[24]王静.西部地区农产品物流关系结构的失调及其解决[J].陕西师范大学学报(哲学社会科学版),2014(3):31-42.
[25]QI X.Research on the China′s rural network marketing of the agricultural products[C]//Lancaster,USA:2016 2nd International Conference on Social Science,Management and Economics,Destech Publications,INC,PA 17602-4967,2016:859-864.
[26]王可山,洪岚.农产品物流研究的理论、方法与进展[J].中国流通经济,2007,21(7):27-29.
[27]CHEN L.Principal Component Analysis of Anhui Agricultural Industrialization[C]//Berlin Germany:Computer and Computing Technologies in Agriculture V,PT III,Springer-Verlag Berlin,Heidelberger Platz 3,D-14197 2012:430-435.
[28]赵慧峰,李彤,赵邦宏,等.农业产业化经营评价指标体系及其实例分析[J].农业技术经济,2000(1):1-5.
[29]崔永红.农业产业化经营绩效评价指标体系的思考[J].农业技术经济,2005(4):28-32.
[30]王刚,黄丽华.基于方法集的农业产业化综合评价模型[J].系统工程理论与实践,2009,29(4):161-168.
[31]闫磊,刘震,朱文.农业产业化对农民收入的影响分析[J].农村经济,2016(2):72-76.
[32]黄红球.农业产业化经营评价指标体系设置及评价方法研究:基于广东省的证据[J].农业技术经济,2013(7):110-117.
[33]张蕊,路正南.我国农业科技进步贡献率的测算与分析[J].安徽农业科学,2007,35(18):5620-5621.
[34]金丽华,张学友,钱选诗,等.我国农业科技的发展及其对农业生产的贡献率[J].长江大学学报(自然科学版),2006,3(2):206-208.
[35]赵英霞.中国农产品物流评价指标体系的构建[J].商业研究,2007(1):211-213.
[36]王程,王涛,蒋远胜.西部地区生鲜农产品物流水平评价和发展模式选择[J].软科学,2014,28(2):136-139.
[37]王蕾,张红丽.基于FAM-TOPSIS法农产品物流发展水平评价[J].兰州学刊,2014(5):140-145.
[38]刘子昂,高彦平,刘新亮,等.基于主成分聚类分析的农产品物流评价[J].江苏农业科学,2016,44(12):553-556.
[2]阳立高,廖进中.城镇化、工业化与农业产业化经济拉动作用分析[J].经济问题探索,2009(3):167-172.
[3]ZHAO Y H,REN A H.Agricultural industrialization organization of marketing strategy analysis[C]//Australia:Proceedings of 2010International Conference on Industry Engineering and Management,M D Forum,17Augusta ST,Allawah Nsw,2218,2010:470-473.
[4]HUANG D.Discussion on the development mode of agricultural industrialization and its innovation[C]//Paris,France:Proceedings of 2017International Conference on Humanities Science,Mangement and Education Technology(HSMET 2017),Atlantis Press,29Avenue Lavmiere,75019,2017:1010-1016.
[5]孙正东.现代农业产业化联合体运营效益分析——一个经验框架与实证[J].华东经济管理,2015(5):108-112.
[6]李燕琼,张学睿.基于价值链的农业产业化龙头企业竞争力培育研究[J].农业经济问题,2009,30(1):53-56.
[7]范德成,胡钰.我国农业产业化发展的障碍因素与策略设计研究[J].科技进步与对策,2012,29(20):68-71.
[8]华静,王玉斌.我国农业产业化发展状况实证研究[J].经济问题探索,2015(4):70-74.
[9]刘瑶,王伊欢.我国农业产业化深度发展的有效路径[J].山东社会科学,2016(1):183-188.
[10]戴伟娟.农产品物流发展的内在动因与机制探析:以国际经验为例[J].上海经济研究,2006(5):15-22.
[11]王树祥,张明玉,黎金银.农产品生产特征及其变化对农产品物流的重要影响[J].管理现代化,2009(5):54-56.
[12]黄祖辉,刘东英.论生鲜农产品物流链的类型与形成机理[J].中国农村经济,2006(11):4-8.
[13]赵玉国.农产品物流:价值在“链条”上[J].商业研究,2009(7):194-196.
[14]武甲斐.我国农产品物流的发展研究[J].经济问题,2011(11):68-70.
[15]张晓林,罗永泰.农产品物流体系重构与优化研究:基于“两头诉苦、中间喊冤”现象的分析[J].商业经济与管理,2011,1(11):5-10.
[16]刘同利.全球化背景下农产品物流发展对策[J].宏观经济管理,2011(11):57-58.
[17]单再成.农产品物流与其影响因素灰色关联度分析[J].系统工程,2012(10):123-126.
[18]徐光顺,王玉峰,王程.生产方式、通道建设与生鲜农产品物流:以内陆农业大省四川为例[J].农村经济,2016(8):78-83.
[19]邬文兵,王俣含,王树祥,等.我国农产品物流系统自组织演化研究:前提、诱因、动力和路径[J].经济问题探索,2017(12):42-49.
[20]DU X F,YAN X F.Empirical study on the competitiveness of Logistics industry in China′s middle region[C]//WMSO,USA:2008International Workshop on Modelling,Simulation and Optimization,Proceedings,IEEE Computer SOC,10662Los Vaqueros Circle,PO BOX 3014,Los Alamitos,CA 90720-1264,2008:210-215.
[21]XU J L,ZHANG M Y,CHEN C.Research on operation mechanism of agricultural products Logistics[C]//London,England:2010International Conference on Management Science and Safety Engineering(MSSE 2010),VOLS I AND II,Acad Serv Group LTD,STE LG,Chanceryhouse,Chancery LN,WC2A1QU,2010:227-231.
[22]刘永清.我国实施农产品物流外包的可行性与效益分析[J].中国流通经济,2008,22(2):26-29.
[23]王静.我国西部农产品物流与农村经济关系的实证分析[J].经济问题,2014(11):86-91.
[24]王静.西部地区农产品物流关系结构的失调及其解决[J].陕西师范大学学报(哲学社会科学版),2014(3):31-42.
[25]QI X.Research on the China′s rural network marketing of the agricultural products[C]//Lancaster,USA:2016 2nd International Conference on Social Science,Management and Economics,Destech Publications,INC,PA 17602-4967,2016:859-864.
[26]王可山,洪岚.农产品物流研究的理论、方法与进展[J].中国流通经济,2007,21(7):27-29.
[27]CHEN L.Principal Component Analysis of Anhui Agricultural Industrialization[C]//Berlin Germany:Computer and Computing Technologies in Agriculture V,PT III,Springer-Verlag Berlin,Heidelberger Platz 3,D-14197 2012:430-435.
[28]赵慧峰,李彤,赵邦宏,等.农业产业化经营评价指标体系及其实例分析[J].农业技术经济,2000(1):1-5.
[29]崔永红.农业产业化经营绩效评价指标体系的思考[J].农业技术经济,2005(4):28-32.
[30]王刚,黄丽华.基于方法集的农业产业化综合评价模型[J].系统工程理论与实践,2009,29(4):161-168.
[31]闫磊,刘震,朱文.农业产业化对农民收入的影响分析[J].农村经济,2016(2):72-76.
[32]黄红球.农业产业化经营评价指标体系设置及评价方法研究:基于广东省的证据[J].农业技术经济,2013(7):110-117.
[33]张蕊,路正南.我国农业科技进步贡献率的测算与分析[J].安徽农业科学,2007,35(18):5620-5621.
[34]金丽华,张学友,钱选诗,等.我国农业科技的发展及其对农业生产的贡献率[J].长江大学学报(自然科学版),2006,3(2):206-208.
[35]赵英霞.中国农产品物流评价指标体系的构建[J].商业研究,2007(1):211-213.
[36]王程,王涛,蒋远胜.西部地区生鲜农产品物流水平评价和发展模式选择[J].软科学,2014,28(2):136-139.
[37]王蕾,张红丽.基于FAM-TOPSIS法农产品物流发展水平评价[J].兰州学刊,2014(5):140-145.
[38]刘子昂,高彦平,刘新亮,等.基于主成分聚类分析的农产品物流评价[J].江苏农业科学,2016,44(12):553-556.