2014年全球重大天气气候事件及其成因
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摘要
2014年全球平均表面温度持续偏高,比1961—1990年平均值偏高0.57℃左右,是自1850年有历史记录以来最暖的一年。年内,赤道中东太平洋基本维持暖水状态,全球平均海表面温度突破历史纪录;北极海冰范围仍处于记录中最低水平之一,而南极海冰范围再创历史新高。受大气环流异常以及海洋和海冰等外强迫因子的共同影响,世界范围内出现了显著的气候异常和极端事件。尤其是,2014年1—4月美国西南大部降水偏少20%~60%,平均降水量为1981年以来最少的一年,干旱发展并持续,部分地区干旱严重;6月上、中旬,印度平均气温31.2℃,较常年同期偏高1.2℃,局部偏高4℃以上,是1961年以来历史同期最高值,印度首都新德里8日最高气温达47.8℃,创该市62年来最高记录。进一步研究发现,1—4月,美国西南部地区持续处于高空脊的控制下,来自东北太平洋和墨西哥湾的水汽输送严重不足是导致干旱发生的直接原因;而印度夏季风北推进程滞缓和高压脊的持续控制是造成6月印度高温的主要原因。
The global average surface temperature in 2014 was about 0.57℃ higher than the mean value of 1961—1990.The year is the warmest year on records since 1850,Sea surface temperatures(SSTs) in the eastern and central equatorial Pacific Ocean mostly maintained warm conditions.Global average SSTs in 2014 were warmer than any previous years in the historical records.During the year,sea ice extent in the Arctic was still at one of the lowest levels on records while the Antarctic sea ice extent reached a new record again.Affected by the anomalous atmospheric circulation combined with the external forcing factors of ocean and sea ice,notable climate anomalies and extreme events occurred worldwide in 2014.Especially,the precipitation in most of the southwest part of the United States of America in January—April 2014 was 20%—60% less than normal,with mean rainfall amount being the least since 1981.The drought developed and persisted,and severe drought even hit some regions.During the first and second dekads of June 2014,the average air temperature in India was 31.2℃,1.2℃ higher than normal.The temperature in some locations was even above 4℃ higher than normal,which is recorded as the highest temperature in the corresponding period since 1961.The maximum temperature was 47.8℃ in New Delhi of India on 8 June,creading a new record in the city for the past 62 years.Further analysis results show the continual domination of the ridge in the upper troposphere and the severe shortage of water vapor transportation from the Northeast Pacific and the Gulf of Mexico were the immediate causes for the drought in the southwestern part of the United States from January to April.The slow northward advances of Indian summer monsoon and the sustainable control of high ridge were the major causes for the high temperature in India in June 2014.
The global average surface temperature in 2014 was about 0.57℃ higher than the mean value of 1961—1990.The year is the warmest year on records since 1850,Sea surface temperatures(SSTs) in the eastern and central equatorial Pacific Ocean mostly maintained warm conditions.Global average SSTs in 2014 were warmer than any previous years in the historical records.During the year,sea ice extent in the Arctic was still at one of the lowest levels on records while the Antarctic sea ice extent reached a new record again.Affected by the anomalous atmospheric circulation combined with the external forcing factors of ocean and sea ice,notable climate anomalies and extreme events occurred worldwide in 2014.Especially,the precipitation in most of the southwest part of the United States of America in January—April 2014 was 20%—60% less than normal,with mean rainfall amount being the least since 1981.The drought developed and persisted,and severe drought even hit some regions.During the first and second dekads of June 2014,the average air temperature in India was 31.2℃,1.2℃ higher than normal.The temperature in some locations was even above 4℃ higher than normal,which is recorded as the highest temperature in the corresponding period since 1961.The maximum temperature was 47.8℃ in New Delhi of India on 8 June,creading a new record in the city for the past 62 years.Further analysis results show the continual domination of the ridge in the upper troposphere and the severe shortage of water vapor transportation from the Northeast Pacific and the Gulf of Mexico were the immediate causes for the drought in the southwestern part of the United States from January to April.The slow northward advances of Indian summer monsoon and the sustainable control of high ridge were the major causes for the high temperature in India in June 2014.
引文
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崔童,孙丞虎,王东阡,等.2015.2014年夏季气候异常特征及成因简析.气象,41(1):119-125.
董全,张涛.2014.2014年3月大气环流和天气分析.气象,40(6):769-776.
关月,何立富.2014.2014年6月大气环流和天气分析.气象,40(9):1159-1164.
国家气候中心.2014.一次新的厄尔尼诺事件已形成未来3个月将持续发展.ENSO监测简报,53:1-4.
国家气候中心气候监测室.2014a.一次新的厄尔尼诺事件已形.气候监测快报,49:1-5.
国家气候中心气候监测室.2014b.美国西南部严重干旱及其可能成因分析.气候监测快报,13:1-7.
国家气候中心气候监测室.2014c.印度夏季风北进滞缓高温热浪持续.气候监测快报,23:1-3.
李晓燕,翟盘茂.2000.ENSO事件指数与指标研究.气象学报,58(1):102-109.
民政部国家减灾中心.2014a.全国自然灾害基本情况分析_201 4年1月.中国减灾,5:61-62.
民政部国家减灾中心.2014b.全国自然灾害基本情况分析_2014年2月.中国减灾,7:60-61.
民政部国家减灾中心.2014c.全国自然灾害基本情况分析_2014年5月.中国减灾,13:62 63.
民政部国家减灾中心.2014d.全国自然灾害基本情况分析_2014年一季度.中国减灾,9:61-62.
民政部国家减灾中心.2014e.全国自然灾害基本情况分析_2014年上半年.中国减灾.15:62-63.
司东,李清泉,柳艳菊,等.2014.2013/2014年东亚冬季风异常偏弱的可能成因.气象,40(7):913-919.
王朋岭,周兵,柳艳菊,等.2015.2014年海洋和大气环流异常及对中国气候的影响.气象,41(4):489-496.
王小玲,任福民,李威,等.2006.气候业务中全球台站逐日气候资料集的建立.气象,32(3):39-43.
袁媛,柳艳菊,王艳姣,等.2014.2014年春季我国主要气候特征及成因简析.气象,40(10):1279-1285.
中国气象局国家气候委员会.2015.2014年中国气候公报,1-50.
Kalnay E.Kanamitsu M,Kistler R,et al.1996.The NCEP/NCAR40-year reanalysis project.Bull Amer Meteor Soc,77:437-471.
Leathers D.Yarnal B,Palecki M A.1991.The Pacific/North American teleconnection pattern and the United States climate.PartⅠ:Regional temperature and precipitation associations.J Clim,4:517-528.
Liebmann B,Smith C A.1996.Description of a complete(interpolated)outgoing longwave radiation dataset.Bull Amer Meteor Soc,77:1275-1277.
Seager R,Hoerling M.2014.Atmosphere and ocean origins of North American droughts.J Clim,27 L 4581-4606.
Singh S V.Kripalan R H.1985.The south to north progressions of rainfall anomalies across India during the summer monsoon season.Pure Appl Geophys,123:624-637.
Wang B,Ding Q.2009.Objective definition of the Indian summer monsoon onset.J Clim,22:3303-3314.
WMO.2014a.WMO Provisional statement on the state of global climate in 2014.http://www.wmo.int/pages/mediacentre/press_releases/documnets/1009_zh.pdf.
WMO.2014b.WMO Provisional statement on the state of global climate in 2014.http://www.wmo.int/pages/mediacentre/press_releases/documnets/1009_Draft_Statement_2014.pdf.
WMO.2015.WMO statement on the status of global climate in2014.WMO-No.1152:1-24.