基于POT与P-IOSM的洪水风险信息挖掘
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摘要
为了从有限的实测资料中挖掘更多洪水信息,以武江流域为研究对象,在考证历史洪水进行特大值处理基础上,基于犁市(二)水文站1956-2009年实测日流量数据提取了POT样本,构建基于P-Ⅲ模型确定控制点而改进的非等步长内集-外集模型(P-IOSM)进行洪水风险信息挖掘.结果表明:结合POT和P-IOSM模型的洪水风险评估能够从有限的实测资料中获取更多的洪水风险信息,得到更贴近事实的风险评估结果,能为决策者提供更多的依据,从而使决策结果更加可靠实用.
In order to get more information about the flood risk,the Peak-over-threshold( POT) flood samples are extracted after extraordinary flood processing with historical information based on daily flow data of Lishi( 2) station in the Wujiang River Basin form 1956-2009. Then the improved non-isochronous Interior-Outer-Set Model( IOSM) which uses P-Ⅲ to determine the control point is applied to analyse the flood risk. The results show that: we can get more flood risk information from limited data and flood risk assessment result that is closer to fact by combining POT and P-IOSM models. It will provide more evidence for policy-makers which makes the decision-making more reliable and practical.
In order to get more information about the flood risk,the Peak-over-threshold( POT) flood samples are extracted after extraordinary flood processing with historical information based on daily flow data of Lishi( 2) station in the Wujiang River Basin form 1956-2009. Then the improved non-isochronous Interior-Outer-Set Model( IOSM) which uses P-Ⅲ to determine the control point is applied to analyse the flood risk. The results show that: we can get more flood risk information from limited data and flood risk assessment result that is closer to fact by combining POT and P-IOSM models. It will provide more evidence for policy-makers which makes the decision-making more reliable and practical.
引文
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[4]Huang Qiang,Chen Zishen.Multivariate flood risk assessment based on the secondary return period.J Lake Sci,2015,27(2):352-360.DOI:10.18307/2015.0221.[黄强,陈子燊.基于二次重现期的多变量洪水风险评估.湖泊科学,2015,27(2):352-360.]
[5]Fang Bin,Guo Shenglian,Cai Xiaoling et al.Flood frequency analysis based on FPOT method.Water Power,2005,31(2):9-12.[方彬,郭生练,柴晓玲等.FPOT方法在洪水频率分析中的应用研究.水力发电,2005,31(2):9-12.]
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[8]Martins ES,Stedinger JR.Generalized Maximum likelihood pareto—Poisson estimators for partial duration series.Water Resources Research,2001,37(10):2551-2557.
[9]Parent E,Bernier J.Bayesian POT modeling for historical data.Journal of Hydrology,2003,274(1/2/3/4):95-108.
[10]Dai Changjun,Liang Zhongmin,Luan Chengmei et al.Advance in flood frequency analysis for partial duration series.Advances in Water Science,2006,17(1):136-140.[戴昌军,梁忠民,栾承梅等.洪水频率分析中PDS模型研究进展.水科学进展,2006,17(1):136-140.]
[11]Beguería S.Uncertainties in partial duration series modelling of extremes related to the choice of the threshold value.Journal of Hydrology,2005,303(1/2/3/4):215-230.
[12]Lang M,Ouarda TBMJ,Bobée B.Towards operational guidelines for over-threshold modeling.Journal of Hydrology,1999,225(3/4):103-117.
[13]Huang Chongfu ed.The natural disaster risk assessment:Theory and practice.Beijing:Science Press,2006.[黄崇福.自然灾害风险评价:理论与实践.北京:科学出版社,2006.]
[14]Huang Chongfu.An application of calculated fuzzy risk.Information Sciences—Informatics&Computer Science an International Journal,2002,142(142):37-56.
[15]Huang Chongfu,Moraga C,Yuan X eds.Calculation vs.Subjective Assessment with Respect to Fuzzy Probability//Computational Intelligence.Theory and Applications.Berlin Heidelberg:Springer,2001:392-411.
[16]Huang Chongfu ed.The natural disaster risk analysis and management.Beijing:Science Press,2012.[黄崇福.自然灾害风险分析与管理.北京:科学出版社,2012.]
[17]Zou Qiang,Zhou Jianzhong,Zhou Chao et al.Flood disaster risk analysis based on variable fuzzy sets theory.Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering,2012,28(5):126-132.[邹强,周建中,周超等.基于可变模糊集理论的洪水灾害风险分析.农业工程学报,2012,28(5):126-132.]
[18]Liu X,Zhang J,Cai W et al.Information diffusion-based spatio-temporal risk analysis of grassland fire disaster in northern China.Knowledge-Based Systems,2010,23(1):53-60.
[19]Feng LH,Luo GY.Analysis on fuzzy risk of landfall typhoon in Zhejiang province of China.Mathematics&Computers in Simulation,2009,79(11):3258-3266.
[20]Zou Q,Zhou J,Zhou C et al.The practical research on flood risk analysis based on IIOSM and fuzzyα-cut technique.Applied Mathematical Modelling,2012,36(7):3271-3282.
[21]Otnes RK,Enochson L eds.Digital time series analysis.Taylor&Francis:Wiley,1972.
[22]Davison AC,Smith RL.Models for exceedances over high thresholds.Journal Royalty Statistical Society B,1990,52(3):393-442.
[23]Ashkar F,Ouarda TBMJ.On some methods of fitting the generalized Pareto distribution.Journal of Hydrology,1996,177:117-141.
[24]Cunnane C.A note on the poisson assumption in partial duration series models.Water Resource Research,1979,15:489-494.
[25]Jin Sheng,Lei Xiaoyun,Li Hui et al.Hydrological P-Ⅲfrequency curve calculation software development research.South-to-North Water Transfers and Water Science&Technology,2009,7(5):70-72.[靳晟,雷晓云,李慧.水文P-Ⅲ频率曲线计算软件开发研究.南水北调与水利科技,2009,7(5):70-72.]
[26]Liu Guangwen.The parameter estimation of PearsonⅢdistribution.Journal of China Hydrology,1990,(4):1-15.[刘光文.皮尔逊Ⅲ型分布参数估计.水文,1990,(4):1-15.]
[27]Song Dedun,Ding Jing.The application of probability weighted moments to estimating the parameters for Pearson type-Ⅲdistribution.Journal of Hydrology,1988,101(101):47-61.
[28]Shen Q,Zhao R.Risk assessment of serious crime with fuzzy random theory.Information Sciences,2010,180(22):4401-4411.
[2]Huang Chongfu.Fuzzy risk assessment of urban natural hazards.Fuzzy Sets&Systems,1996,83(2):271-282.
[3]Zou Qiang.Study on the theory and method of comprehensive analysis and intelligent assessment of flood disaster risk[Dissertation].Wuhan:Huazhong University of Science&Technology,2013.[邹强.洪灾风险综合分析与智能评价的理论与方法[学位论文].武汉:华中科技大学,2013.]
[4]Huang Qiang,Chen Zishen.Multivariate flood risk assessment based on the secondary return period.J Lake Sci,2015,27(2):352-360.DOI:10.18307/2015.0221.[黄强,陈子燊.基于二次重现期的多变量洪水风险评估.湖泊科学,2015,27(2):352-360.]
[5]Fang Bin,Guo Shenglian,Cai Xiaoling et al.Flood frequency analysis based on FPOT method.Water Power,2005,31(2):9-12.[方彬,郭生练,柴晓玲等.FPOT方法在洪水频率分析中的应用研究.水力发电,2005,31(2):9-12.]
[6]Zhang Lijuan,Chen Xiaohong,Ye Changqing et al.POT flood frequency analysis with historical floods in Wujiang River.Journal of Hydraulic Engineering,2013,(3):268-275.[张丽娟,陈晓宏,叶长青等.考虑历史洪水的武江超定量洪水频率分析.水利学报,2013,(3):268-275.]
[7]Ye Changqing,Chen Xiaohong,Zhang Lijuan et al.Changing rule and influence of threshold for peak-over-threshold flood series under the changing environment in Wujiang,China.Advances in Water Science,2013,(3):392-401.[叶长青,陈晓宏,张丽娟等.变化环境下武江超定量洪水门限值响应规律及影响.水科学进展,2013,(3):392-401.]
[8]Martins ES,Stedinger JR.Generalized Maximum likelihood pareto—Poisson estimators for partial duration series.Water Resources Research,2001,37(10):2551-2557.
[9]Parent E,Bernier J.Bayesian POT modeling for historical data.Journal of Hydrology,2003,274(1/2/3/4):95-108.
[10]Dai Changjun,Liang Zhongmin,Luan Chengmei et al.Advance in flood frequency analysis for partial duration series.Advances in Water Science,2006,17(1):136-140.[戴昌军,梁忠民,栾承梅等.洪水频率分析中PDS模型研究进展.水科学进展,2006,17(1):136-140.]
[11]Beguería S.Uncertainties in partial duration series modelling of extremes related to the choice of the threshold value.Journal of Hydrology,2005,303(1/2/3/4):215-230.
[12]Lang M,Ouarda TBMJ,Bobée B.Towards operational guidelines for over-threshold modeling.Journal of Hydrology,1999,225(3/4):103-117.
[13]Huang Chongfu ed.The natural disaster risk assessment:Theory and practice.Beijing:Science Press,2006.[黄崇福.自然灾害风险评价:理论与实践.北京:科学出版社,2006.]
[14]Huang Chongfu.An application of calculated fuzzy risk.Information Sciences—Informatics&Computer Science an International Journal,2002,142(142):37-56.
[15]Huang Chongfu,Moraga C,Yuan X eds.Calculation vs.Subjective Assessment with Respect to Fuzzy Probability//Computational Intelligence.Theory and Applications.Berlin Heidelberg:Springer,2001:392-411.
[16]Huang Chongfu ed.The natural disaster risk analysis and management.Beijing:Science Press,2012.[黄崇福.自然灾害风险分析与管理.北京:科学出版社,2012.]
[17]Zou Qiang,Zhou Jianzhong,Zhou Chao et al.Flood disaster risk analysis based on variable fuzzy sets theory.Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering,2012,28(5):126-132.[邹强,周建中,周超等.基于可变模糊集理论的洪水灾害风险分析.农业工程学报,2012,28(5):126-132.]
[18]Liu X,Zhang J,Cai W et al.Information diffusion-based spatio-temporal risk analysis of grassland fire disaster in northern China.Knowledge-Based Systems,2010,23(1):53-60.
[19]Feng LH,Luo GY.Analysis on fuzzy risk of landfall typhoon in Zhejiang province of China.Mathematics&Computers in Simulation,2009,79(11):3258-3266.
[20]Zou Q,Zhou J,Zhou C et al.The practical research on flood risk analysis based on IIOSM and fuzzyα-cut technique.Applied Mathematical Modelling,2012,36(7):3271-3282.
[21]Otnes RK,Enochson L eds.Digital time series analysis.Taylor&Francis:Wiley,1972.
[22]Davison AC,Smith RL.Models for exceedances over high thresholds.Journal Royalty Statistical Society B,1990,52(3):393-442.
[23]Ashkar F,Ouarda TBMJ.On some methods of fitting the generalized Pareto distribution.Journal of Hydrology,1996,177:117-141.
[24]Cunnane C.A note on the poisson assumption in partial duration series models.Water Resource Research,1979,15:489-494.
[25]Jin Sheng,Lei Xiaoyun,Li Hui et al.Hydrological P-Ⅲfrequency curve calculation software development research.South-to-North Water Transfers and Water Science&Technology,2009,7(5):70-72.[靳晟,雷晓云,李慧.水文P-Ⅲ频率曲线计算软件开发研究.南水北调与水利科技,2009,7(5):70-72.]
[26]Liu Guangwen.The parameter estimation of PearsonⅢdistribution.Journal of China Hydrology,1990,(4):1-15.[刘光文.皮尔逊Ⅲ型分布参数估计.水文,1990,(4):1-15.]
[27]Song Dedun,Ding Jing.The application of probability weighted moments to estimating the parameters for Pearson type-Ⅲdistribution.Journal of Hydrology,1988,101(101):47-61.
[28]Shen Q,Zhao R.Risk assessment of serious crime with fuzzy random theory.Information Sciences,2010,180(22):4401-4411.