基于内集-外集的洪灾模糊风险分析
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摘要
我国洪涝灾害频繁发生,对我国人民的生命财产安全造成很大的危害,洪灾风险分析可为防洪规划和管理决策提供重要的依据。采用基于信息分配方法的内集—外集模型对洪灾进行模糊风险分析,以四川省洪灾数据为例说明该模型的具体应用。实例证明,此模型风险概念简单,数学逻辑清晰,计算简便,评估结果清楚,对防洪抗洪具有一定的指导意义。
Flood disasters are frequently occurred in China and cause great damages to the security of both people's lives and properties.The risk analysis of flood disasters can provide important basis for the planning and decision-making of flood control and management.The interior-outer-set model based on information distribution method is adopted herein to analyze fuzzy risk of flood disasters,and it is applied to calculate the fuzzy flood disaster risk in Sichuan Province.The case study shows that the interior-outer-set model is simple in concept,clear in mathematical logic,easy in computation and clear in evaluation result.The model has certain significance to flood control.
Flood disasters are frequently occurred in China and cause great damages to the security of both people's lives and properties.The risk analysis of flood disasters can provide important basis for the planning and decision-making of flood control and management.The interior-outer-set model based on information distribution method is adopted herein to analyze fuzzy risk of flood disasters,and it is applied to calculate the fuzzy flood disaster risk in Sichuan Province.The case study shows that the interior-outer-set model is simple in concept,clear in mathematical logic,easy in computation and clear in evaluation result.The model has certain significance to flood control.
引文
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[9]HUANG Chongfu.Concepts and methods of fuzzy risk analysis[C]//Proceedings of the First China-Japan Conference on Risk Assessmentand Management.Beijing:International Academic Publishers,1998:12-23.
[10]陈曜,丁晶,赵永红.基于投影寻踪原理的四川省洪灾评估[J].水利学报,2010,41(2):220-225.
[2]闻珺.洪水灾害风险分析与评价研究[D].南京:河海大学,2007.
[3]毛德华,何梓霖,贺新光,等.洪灾风险分析的国内外研究现状与展望(I)—洪水为害风险分析研究现状[J].自然灾害学报,2009,18(1):139-149.
[4]李继清,张玉山,王丽萍,等.洪灾综合风险分析方法讨论(I)—基于集对分析理论[J].数学的实践与认识,2007,37(8):43-49.
[5]李继清,张玉山,王丽萍,等.洪灾综合风险结构与综合评价方法(Ⅱ)—微观结构[J].武汉大学学报:工学版,2006,39(2):5-10.
[6]李继清,张玉山,王丽萍,等.洪灾综合风险结构与综合评价方法(I)—宏观方面[J].武汉大学学报:工学版,2005,38(5):19-23.
[7]段金长,丁杰.考虑风险管理的水电站发电调度研究[J].水力发电,2010,36(5):91-94.
[8]许士国,刘建卫,张柏良.洪水资源利用及其风险管理研究[J].水力发电,2007,33(1):10-13.
[9]HUANG Chongfu.Concepts and methods of fuzzy risk analysis[C]//Proceedings of the First China-Japan Conference on Risk Assessmentand Management.Beijing:International Academic Publishers,1998:12-23.
[10]陈曜,丁晶,赵永红.基于投影寻踪原理的四川省洪灾评估[J].水利学报,2010,41(2):220-225.