自然灾害动态风险分析基本原理的探讨
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摘要
随着自然环境的变化和人类社会的发展,自然灾害的风险必然发生变化。变化着的风险,称为动态风险。该文概述了动态风险研究的现状,指出更新算法和趋势预测法只适于研究惯性型动态风险,没有触及动态风险的本质,进而界定随着综合环境和内在属性的变化而变化的风险才是动态风险。人们所能研究的仅仅是认知动态风险。提出了以"研究综合环境和内在属性变化对风险源和风险承受体的影响"为核心,并对风险源和风险承受体进行耦合的自然灾害动态风险分析基本原理。
With the changes in the natural environment and the development of human society,the risk of natural disasters will inevitably change.A changing risk is called as a dynamic risk.This article outlines the research status of dynamic risks and points out that the update algorithms and trend forecasting methods are only suitable to study the dynamic risks due to inertia,which do not touch the nature of dynamic risks,and we define the dynamic risks with the changes in integrated environmental and intrinsic properties.People can study only the perceived dynamic risk.The basic principles of dynamic risk analysis are proposed.The key tasks are to study the effects of the changes in integrated environmental and intrinsic properties on risk sources and risk-bearing bodies,and how coupling of risk sources and risk-bearing bodies.
With the changes in the natural environment and the development of human society,the risk of natural disasters will inevitably change.A changing risk is called as a dynamic risk.This article outlines the research status of dynamic risks and points out that the update algorithms and trend forecasting methods are only suitable to study the dynamic risks due to inertia,which do not touch the nature of dynamic risks,and we define the dynamic risks with the changes in integrated environmental and intrinsic properties.People can study only the perceived dynamic risk.The basic principles of dynamic risk analysis are proposed.The key tasks are to study the effects of the changes in integrated environmental and intrinsic properties on risk sources and risk-bearing bodies,and how coupling of risk sources and risk-bearing bodies.
引文
[1]黄崇福.自然灾害风险分析与管理[M].北京:科学出版社,2012:43.
[2]Holzmann H.Martingale approximations for continuous-time and discrete-time stationary Markov processes[J].Stochastic Processes and their Applications.2005,115(9):1518-1529.
[3]Kanl Thomas R,Gerald A Meehl,Christopher D Miller,et al.Weather and climate extremes in a changing Climate:Regions of focus:North America,Hawaii,Caribbean,and U.S.Pacific Islands[R].Washington,DC:UNT Digital Library,2008.
[4]孙殿阁,孙佳,王淼,等.基于Bow-Tie技术的民用机场安全风险分析应用研究[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2010,6(4):85-98.
[5]Khakzad N,Khan F,Amyotte P.Dynamic risk analysis using bow-tie approach[J].Reliability Engineering and System Safety,2012,104:36-44.
[6]Ebeling C E.An introduction to reliability and maintainability engineering[M].2nd ed.New Delhi:Mc Graw Hill,1997.
[7]Siu N O,Kelly D L.Bayesian parameter estimation in probabilistic risk assessment[J].Reliability Engineering and System Safety,1998,62:89-116.
[8]Huang C F,Ruan D.Fuzzy risks and an updating algorithm with new observations[J].Risk Analysis,2008,28(3):681-694.
[9]黄崇福.内集-外集模型的计算机仿真检验[J].自然灾害学报,2002,11(3):62-70.
[10]Goble R,Bier V M.Risk assessment can be a game-changing information technology-but too often it isn’t[J].Risk Analysis,2013,33(11):1942-1951.
[11]赵秀恒,王清印,王义闹,等.不确定性系统理论及其在预测与决策中的应用[M].北京:冶金工业出版社,2010:74-75.
[12]庞西磊.自然灾害动态风险分析基本模式的探讨及其应用研究[D].北京:北京师范大学,2012.
[13]Huang C F,Shi Y.Towards efficient fuzzy information processing——using the principle of information diffusion[M].Heidelberg:Physica-Verlag(Springer),2002.
[14]陈文俊.企业财务的风险雷达预警管理[J].求索,2005(4):52-54.
[15]李固.风险雷达2010[J].21世纪商业评论,2010(9):26.
[16]Vagadia B.Enterprise governance:Driving enterprise performance through strategic alignment[M].Heidelberg:Springer-Verlag,2013:62.
[17]Jovanovi c'A S,Lscher M.i NTeg-Risk project:How much nearer are we to improved“Early Recognition,Monitoring and Integrated Management of Emerging,New Technology Related Risks”[R].Stuttgart,Germany:European Virtual Institute for Integrated Risk Management,2013.
[18]秦炳军,张圣坤.动态过程风险评估方法[J].上海交通大学学报,1998,11(32):17-20.
[19]Berend R,Schumacher J M.Time consistency conditions for acceptability measures with an application to tail value at risk[J].Insurance Mathematics and Economics,2007,40(2):209-230.
[20]Cvitani c'J,Karatzas I.On dynamic measure of risk[J].Finance and Stochastics,1999,3(4):451-482.
[21]Evstigneev I V,Hens T,Schenk-HoppéK R.Evolutionary stable stock markets[J].Economic Theory,2006,27(2):449-468.
[22]Weber S.Distribution-invariant risk measures,information and dynamic consistency[J].Mathematical Finance,2006,16(2):419-441.
[23]王飞,尹占娥,温家洪,等.基于多智能体的自然灾害动态风险评估模型[J].地理与地理信息科学,2009,25(2):85-88.
[24]黄蕙,温家洪,司瑞洁,等.自然灾害风险评估国际计划述评Ⅱ-评估方法[J].灾害学,2008,23(3):96-101.
[25]Blaikie P,Cannon T,Davis I,et al,B.At risk:Natural hazards,people’s vulnerability,and disasters[M].London:Routledge,1994.
[26]顾明,赵明伟,全涌.结构台风灾害风险评估研究进展[J].同济大学学报:自然科学版,2009,37(5):569-574.
[27]Kumar V,Rachel A D.Application of a regional hurricane wind risk forecasting model for wood-frame houses[J].Risk Analysis,2007,27(1):45-58.
[28]Huang C F.Multiple internet of intelligences for risk analysis[J].Journal of Risk Analysis and Crisis Response,2014,4(2):61-71.
[2]Holzmann H.Martingale approximations for continuous-time and discrete-time stationary Markov processes[J].Stochastic Processes and their Applications.2005,115(9):1518-1529.
[3]Kanl Thomas R,Gerald A Meehl,Christopher D Miller,et al.Weather and climate extremes in a changing Climate:Regions of focus:North America,Hawaii,Caribbean,and U.S.Pacific Islands[R].Washington,DC:UNT Digital Library,2008.
[4]孙殿阁,孙佳,王淼,等.基于Bow-Tie技术的民用机场安全风险分析应用研究[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2010,6(4):85-98.
[5]Khakzad N,Khan F,Amyotte P.Dynamic risk analysis using bow-tie approach[J].Reliability Engineering and System Safety,2012,104:36-44.
[6]Ebeling C E.An introduction to reliability and maintainability engineering[M].2nd ed.New Delhi:Mc Graw Hill,1997.
[7]Siu N O,Kelly D L.Bayesian parameter estimation in probabilistic risk assessment[J].Reliability Engineering and System Safety,1998,62:89-116.
[8]Huang C F,Ruan D.Fuzzy risks and an updating algorithm with new observations[J].Risk Analysis,2008,28(3):681-694.
[9]黄崇福.内集-外集模型的计算机仿真检验[J].自然灾害学报,2002,11(3):62-70.
[10]Goble R,Bier V M.Risk assessment can be a game-changing information technology-but too often it isn’t[J].Risk Analysis,2013,33(11):1942-1951.
[11]赵秀恒,王清印,王义闹,等.不确定性系统理论及其在预测与决策中的应用[M].北京:冶金工业出版社,2010:74-75.
[12]庞西磊.自然灾害动态风险分析基本模式的探讨及其应用研究[D].北京:北京师范大学,2012.
[13]Huang C F,Shi Y.Towards efficient fuzzy information processing——using the principle of information diffusion[M].Heidelberg:Physica-Verlag(Springer),2002.
[14]陈文俊.企业财务的风险雷达预警管理[J].求索,2005(4):52-54.
[15]李固.风险雷达2010[J].21世纪商业评论,2010(9):26.
[16]Vagadia B.Enterprise governance:Driving enterprise performance through strategic alignment[M].Heidelberg:Springer-Verlag,2013:62.
[17]Jovanovi c'A S,Lscher M.i NTeg-Risk project:How much nearer are we to improved“Early Recognition,Monitoring and Integrated Management of Emerging,New Technology Related Risks”[R].Stuttgart,Germany:European Virtual Institute for Integrated Risk Management,2013.
[18]秦炳军,张圣坤.动态过程风险评估方法[J].上海交通大学学报,1998,11(32):17-20.
[19]Berend R,Schumacher J M.Time consistency conditions for acceptability measures with an application to tail value at risk[J].Insurance Mathematics and Economics,2007,40(2):209-230.
[20]Cvitani c'J,Karatzas I.On dynamic measure of risk[J].Finance and Stochastics,1999,3(4):451-482.
[21]Evstigneev I V,Hens T,Schenk-HoppéK R.Evolutionary stable stock markets[J].Economic Theory,2006,27(2):449-468.
[22]Weber S.Distribution-invariant risk measures,information and dynamic consistency[J].Mathematical Finance,2006,16(2):419-441.
[23]王飞,尹占娥,温家洪,等.基于多智能体的自然灾害动态风险评估模型[J].地理与地理信息科学,2009,25(2):85-88.
[24]黄蕙,温家洪,司瑞洁,等.自然灾害风险评估国际计划述评Ⅱ-评估方法[J].灾害学,2008,23(3):96-101.
[25]Blaikie P,Cannon T,Davis I,et al,B.At risk:Natural hazards,people’s vulnerability,and disasters[M].London:Routledge,1994.
[26]顾明,赵明伟,全涌.结构台风灾害风险评估研究进展[J].同济大学学报:自然科学版,2009,37(5):569-574.
[27]Kumar V,Rachel A D.Application of a regional hurricane wind risk forecasting model for wood-frame houses[J].Risk Analysis,2007,27(1):45-58.
[28]Huang C F.Multiple internet of intelligences for risk analysis[J].Journal of Risk Analysis and Crisis Response,2014,4(2):61-71.