与月份及预警有关的广东省台风动态风险研究
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摘要
本文将自然灾害动态风险分析基本原理应用于台风动态风险研究,以广东省为案例表述了动态风险因综合环境和内在属性的变化而变化.仅以月份不同及有无预警,就能说明台风风险确有动态性.本文采用信息扩散技术估计概率分布和构造脆弱性曲线,计算年度台风灾损率期望值作为风险值.结果表明,广东省一年内不同月份的台风风险水平不同.在台风季节,6月份风险水平最低,9月份最高;台风预警机制,对台风风险水平影响较大.该项研究对台风灾害的应急管理,有一定的参考价值.
Based on the basic principles for analyzing dynamic risks of natural disasters,this paper studies the typhoon dynamic risk and takes Guangdong province as an example to show the change of typhoon risk along with the changes in the integrated environmental and intrinsic properties.In this paper,the different months when typhoon occurs and whether there is an early warning system before typhoon comes are used to show the dynamics of typhoon risk.What's more,the information diffusion technique is applied to estimate probability distribution and to construct the vulnerability curve.Integrating the product of the distribution and the curve,the expected value of proportion of the direct economic loss for one typhoon is calculated as the risk value.The result shows that the typhoon risk values in Guangdong province vary in different months.During the typhoon season,the typhoon risk is lowest in June and highest in September.Besides,whether there is an early warning mechanism has a great influence on the typhoon risk.And,the result has reference value for the emergency management.
Based on the basic principles for analyzing dynamic risks of natural disasters,this paper studies the typhoon dynamic risk and takes Guangdong province as an example to show the change of typhoon risk along with the changes in the integrated environmental and intrinsic properties.In this paper,the different months when typhoon occurs and whether there is an early warning system before typhoon comes are used to show the dynamics of typhoon risk.What's more,the information diffusion technique is applied to estimate probability distribution and to construct the vulnerability curve.Integrating the product of the distribution and the curve,the expected value of proportion of the direct economic loss for one typhoon is calculated as the risk value.The result shows that the typhoon risk values in Guangdong province vary in different months.During the typhoon season,the typhoon risk is lowest in June and highest in September.Besides,whether there is an early warning mechanism has a great influence on the typhoon risk.And,the result has reference value for the emergency management.
引文
[1]黄崇福.自然灾害动态风险分析基本原理的探讨[J].灾害学,2015,30(2):1-7.Huang Chongfu.Exploration on the basic principles of dynamic risk analysis in natural disasters[J].Journal of Catastrophology,2015,30(2):1-7.
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[5]王飞,尹占娥,温家洪,等.基于多智能体的自然灾害动态风险评估模型[J].地理与地理信息科学,2009,25(2):85-88.Wang Fei,Yin Zhane,Wen Jiahong,et al.Assessing model for dynamic risk of natural disasters based on multi-agent system[J].Geography and Geo-information Science,2009,25(2):85-88.
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[8]Ebeling C E.An introduction to reliability and maintainability engineering[M].2nd ed.New Delhi:McGraw Hill,1977.
[9]黄崇福.内集-外集模型的计算机仿真检验[J].自然灾害学报,2002,11(3):62-70.Huang Chongfu.Computer simulation tests of interior-outer-set mode[J].Journal of Natural Disasters,2002,11(3):62-70.
[10]黄崇福.自然灾害风险分析与管理[M].北京:科学出版社,2012:39,73,182,227.Huang Chongfu.Risk analysis and management of natural disasters[M].Beijing:Science Press,2012:39,73,182,227.
[11]毛绍荣,张东,梁健,等.广东近海台风路径异常的统计特征[J].应用气象学报,2003,14(3):348-355.Mao Shaorong,Zhang Dong,Liang Jian,et al.Statistical characteristics of unusual tropical cyclone tracks in offshore Guangdong[J].Quarterly Journal of Applied Meteorology,2003,14(3):348-355.
[12]黄崇福,郭君,艾福利,等.洪涝灾害风险分析的基本范式及其应用[J].自然灾害学报,2013,22(4):11-23.Huang Chongfu,Guo Jun,Ai Fuli,et al.Basic paradigm of risk analysis in flood disaster and its application[J].Journal of Natural Disasters,2013,22(4):11-23.
[13]黄崇福.从概率统计进化到智联网的风险评估[C]//中国灾害防御协会风险分析专业委员会第六届年会论文集,巴黎:Atlantis出版社,2014:1-7.Huang Chongfu.Dynamic risk assessment evolving from probability statistics to Internet of intelligences[C]//The 6th Annual Meeting of Risk Analysis Council of China Association for Disaster Prevention,Paris:Atlantis Press,2014:1-7.
[2]Kakhandiki A,Shah H.Understanding time variation of risk:Crucial implications for megacities world wide[J].Applied Geography,1998,18(1):47-53.
[3]苏桂武,高庆华.自然灾害风险的行为主体特性与时间尺度问题[J].自然灾害学报,2003,12(1):9-16.Su Guiwu,Gao Qinghua.Behavior subject-oriented qualities and time scale issues of natural disaster risk[J].Journal of Natural Disasters,2003,12(1):9-16.
[4]Jain V K,Davidson R,Rosowsky D,et al.Modeling changes in hurricane risk over time[J].Natural Hazards Review,2005,6(2):88-96.
[5]王飞,尹占娥,温家洪,等.基于多智能体的自然灾害动态风险评估模型[J].地理与地理信息科学,2009,25(2):85-88.Wang Fei,Yin Zhane,Wen Jiahong,et al.Assessing model for dynamic risk of natural disasters based on multi-agent system[J].Geography and Geo-information Science,2009,25(2):85-88.
[6]庞西磊.自然灾害动态风险分析基本模式的探讨及其应用研究[D].北京:北京师范大学,2012.Pang Xilei.Investigation on the basic mode of dynamic risk analysis for natural disaster and its application[D].Beijing:Beijing Normal University,2012.
[7]Khakzad N,Khan F,Amyotte P.Dynamic risk analysis using bow-tie approach[J].Reliability Engineering and System Safety,2012,104:36-44.
[8]Ebeling C E.An introduction to reliability and maintainability engineering[M].2nd ed.New Delhi:McGraw Hill,1977.
[9]黄崇福.内集-外集模型的计算机仿真检验[J].自然灾害学报,2002,11(3):62-70.Huang Chongfu.Computer simulation tests of interior-outer-set mode[J].Journal of Natural Disasters,2002,11(3):62-70.
[10]黄崇福.自然灾害风险分析与管理[M].北京:科学出版社,2012:39,73,182,227.Huang Chongfu.Risk analysis and management of natural disasters[M].Beijing:Science Press,2012:39,73,182,227.
[11]毛绍荣,张东,梁健,等.广东近海台风路径异常的统计特征[J].应用气象学报,2003,14(3):348-355.Mao Shaorong,Zhang Dong,Liang Jian,et al.Statistical characteristics of unusual tropical cyclone tracks in offshore Guangdong[J].Quarterly Journal of Applied Meteorology,2003,14(3):348-355.
[12]黄崇福,郭君,艾福利,等.洪涝灾害风险分析的基本范式及其应用[J].自然灾害学报,2013,22(4):11-23.Huang Chongfu,Guo Jun,Ai Fuli,et al.Basic paradigm of risk analysis in flood disaster and its application[J].Journal of Natural Disasters,2013,22(4):11-23.
[13]黄崇福.从概率统计进化到智联网的风险评估[C]//中国灾害防御协会风险分析专业委员会第六届年会论文集,巴黎:Atlantis出版社,2014:1-7.Huang Chongfu.Dynamic risk assessment evolving from probability statistics to Internet of intelligences[C]//The 6th Annual Meeting of Risk Analysis Council of China Association for Disaster Prevention,Paris:Atlantis Press,2014:1-7.