多元时间序列分析的滑坡演化阶段划分
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摘要
滑坡的时间-位移曲线一般具有3个阶段特征,即初始变形阶段、等速变形阶段和加速变形阶段,不同演化阶段加速度具有不同的变化特点.目前往往是依据对加速度曲线特征的分析来人为划分演化阶段,缺少相应的理论支持和定量计算.针对上述问题,选取月降雨量、月库水位高程变化量对滑坡的累计位移建立多因素的时间序列预测模型.然后利用Chow分割点检验理论,以所建模型中F和LR统计量最大值点作为分割点对滑坡演化阶段进行划分.以新滩滑坡和三峡库区白水河滑坡为例,利用累计位移、降雨及库水位变化数据进行计算验证.结果表明,对多元时间序列模型进行Chow分割点检验可对滑坡的演化阶段进行准确划分,为滑坡的临滑预警预报提供重要判据.
Curves of cumulative displacement vs.time of the landslide generally include the stages of the initial deformation,constant speed deformation and accelerated deformation.Different deformation stages have their own different acceleration characteristics.Now the evolution of landslide can be divided by analyzing the characteristics of acceleration curve.But it lacks theoretical basis and quantitative calculation.To the above problems,the rainfall of current month and reservoir level fluctuation of current month are selected as influencing factors,and the multivariate time series model is adopted to predict the cumulative displacement.Taking the maximum points of Fstatistic and log-likelihood ratio statistic of the multivariate time series model as segmentation points divides the evolution stages of landslide based on the theory of Chow breakpoint test.This model is used to deal with the data of cumulative displacement,rainfall and reservoir level fluctuation of Xintan landslide and Baishuihe landslide in the Three Gorges reservoir area.The results indicate that the Chow breakpoint test on the multivariate time series prediction model based on the inducing factors and the landslide displacement has certain validity and application value.This division of the landslide evolution stage can provide an important criterion for the early-warning prediction of landslide.
Curves of cumulative displacement vs.time of the landslide generally include the stages of the initial deformation,constant speed deformation and accelerated deformation.Different deformation stages have their own different acceleration characteristics.Now the evolution of landslide can be divided by analyzing the characteristics of acceleration curve.But it lacks theoretical basis and quantitative calculation.To the above problems,the rainfall of current month and reservoir level fluctuation of current month are selected as influencing factors,and the multivariate time series model is adopted to predict the cumulative displacement.Taking the maximum points of Fstatistic and log-likelihood ratio statistic of the multivariate time series model as segmentation points divides the evolution stages of landslide based on the theory of Chow breakpoint test.This model is used to deal with the data of cumulative displacement,rainfall and reservoir level fluctuation of Xintan landslide and Baishuihe landslide in the Three Gorges reservoir area.The results indicate that the Chow breakpoint test on the multivariate time series prediction model based on the inducing factors and the landslide displacement has certain validity and application value.This division of the landslide evolution stage can provide an important criterion for the early-warning prediction of landslide.
引文
Chen,X.P.,Zhang,Q.Y.,Liu,D.W.,et al.,2008.Deformation Statistical Regression Analysis Model of Slope and Its Application.Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics and Engineering,27(Suppl.2):3673-3679(in Chinese with English abstract).
Ding,J.X.,Shang,Y.J.,Yang,Z.F.,et al.,2004.New Method of Predicting Rainfall-Induced Landslides.ChineseJournalof Rock Mechanicsand Engineering,23(21):3738-3743(in Chinese with English abstract).
Du,J.,Yin,K.L.,Chai,B.,2009.Study of Displacement Prediction Model of Landslide Based on Response Analysis of Inducing Factors.Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics and Engineering,28(9):1783-1789(in Chinese with English abstract).
Fan,X.,Y.,2011.Landslide Displacement Multifractal and Its Application to Prediction of Evolvement Trend.Rock and Soil Mechanics,32(6):1831-1837(in Chinese with English abstract).
Gao,L.T.,Yi,X.W.,Li,X.,et al.,2011.Case Study of Relationship between Typical Landslide Distortion and Water Changes in Three Gorges Area.Geological Science and Technology Information,30(4):132-136(in Chinese with English abstract).
Gao,T.M.,Liang,Y.F.,Liu,Y.H.,2009.Methods of E-conometric Analysis and Modeling.Tsinghua University Press,Beijing,81-86(in Chinese).
Luo,Y.,He,S.M.,He,J.C.,2014.Effect of Rainfall Patterns on Stability of Shallow Landslide.Earth Science,39(9):1357-1363(in Chinese with English abstract).
Wang,J.F.,2003.Quantitative Prediction of Landslide Using S-Curve.The Chinese Journal of Geological Hazard and Control,14(2):1-8(in Chinese with English abstract).
Wang,S.Q.,1999.The Monitoring and Prediction of the Landslide in the Three Gorges Region of Yangtze River.Geological Publishing House,Beijing,13-20(in Chinese).
Wu,Y.P.,Zhang,Q.X.,Tang,H.M.,et al.,2014.Landslide Hazard Warning Based on Effective Rainfall Rainfall Intensity.Earth Science,39(7):889-895(in Chinese with English abstract).
Xu,F.,Wang,Y.,Du,J.,et al.,2011.Study of Displacement Prediction Model of Iandslide Based on Time Series Analysis.Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics and Engineering,30(4):746-751(in Chinese with English abstract).
Xu,Q.,Huang,R.Q.,Li,X.Z.,2004.Research Progress in Time Forecast and Prediction of Landslides.Advance in Earth Sciences,19(3):478-483(in Chinese with English abstract).
Xu,Q.,Tang,M.G.,Xu,K.X.,et al.,2008.Research on Space-Time Evolution Laws and Early WarningPrediction of Landslides.Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics and Engineering,27(6):1104-1112(in Chinese with English abstract).
Xu,Q.,Zeng,Y.P.,2009.Research on Acceleration Variation Characteristics of Creep Landslide and Early-Warning Prediction Indicator of Critical Sliding.Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics and Engineering,28(6):1099-1106(in Chinese with English abstract).
Yin,K.L.,2004.Landslide Hazard Prediction and Evaluation.China University of Geosciences Press,Wuhan,8-9,74-78(in Chinese).
Zheng,D.J.,Gu,C.S.,Wu,Z.R.,2005.Time Series Evolution Forecasting Model of Slope Deformation Based on Multiple Factors.Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics and Engineering,24(17):3180-3184(in Chinese with English abstract).
Zhou,B.,2012.Analysis on Forecast of Xintan Landslide.Subgrade Engineering,(4):182-185(in Chinese with English abstract).
陈晓鹏,张强勇,刘大文,等,2008.边坡变形统计回归分析模型及应用.岩石力学与工程学报,27(增刊2):3673-3679.
丁继新,尚彦军,杨志发等,2004.降雨型滑坡预报新方法.岩石力学与工程学报,23(21):3738-3743.
杜娟,殷坤龙,柴波,2009.基于诱发因素响应分析的滑坡位移预测模型研究.岩石力学与工程学报,28(9):1783-1789.
樊晓一,2011.滑坡位移多重分形特征与滑坡演化预测.岩土力学,32(6):1831-1837.
高连通,易夏玮,李喜等,2011.三峡库区典型滑坡变形与高水位涨落关系研究.地质科技情报,30(4):132-136.
高铁梅,梁云芳,刘玉红,2009.计量经济分析方法与建模EViews应用及实例.北京:清华大学出版社,81-86.
罗渝,何思明,何尽川,2014.降雨类型对浅层滑坡稳定性的影响,地球科学,39(9):1357-1363.
王建锋,2003.滑坡发生时间预报分析.中国地质灾害与防治学报,14(2):1-8.
王尚庆,1999.长江三峡滑坡监测预报.北京:地质出版社,13-20.
吴益平,张秋霞,唐辉明,肖威,2014.基于有效降雨强度的滑坡灾害危险性预警,地球科学,39(7):889-895.
徐峰,汪洋,杜娟,等,2011.基于时间序列分析的滑坡位移预测模型研究.岩石力学与工程学报,30(4):746-751.
许强,黄润秋,李秀珍,2004.滑坡时间预测预报研究进展.地球科学进展,19(3):478-483.
许强,汤明高,徐开祥,等,2008.滑坡时空演化规律及预警预报研究.岩石力学与工程学报,27(6):1104-1112.
许强,曾裕平,2009.具有蠕变特点滑坡的加速度变化特征及临滑预警指标研究.岩石力学与工程学报,28(6):1099-1106.
殷坤龙,2004.滑坡灾害预测预报.武汉:中国地质大学出版社,8-9,74-78.
郑东健,顾冲时,吴中如,2005.边坡变形的多因素时变预测模型.岩石力学与工程学报,24(17):3180-3184.
周斌,2012.新滩滑坡预测预报分析.路基工程,(4):182-185.
Ding,J.X.,Shang,Y.J.,Yang,Z.F.,et al.,2004.New Method of Predicting Rainfall-Induced Landslides.ChineseJournalof Rock Mechanicsand Engineering,23(21):3738-3743(in Chinese with English abstract).
Du,J.,Yin,K.L.,Chai,B.,2009.Study of Displacement Prediction Model of Landslide Based on Response Analysis of Inducing Factors.Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics and Engineering,28(9):1783-1789(in Chinese with English abstract).
Fan,X.,Y.,2011.Landslide Displacement Multifractal and Its Application to Prediction of Evolvement Trend.Rock and Soil Mechanics,32(6):1831-1837(in Chinese with English abstract).
Gao,L.T.,Yi,X.W.,Li,X.,et al.,2011.Case Study of Relationship between Typical Landslide Distortion and Water Changes in Three Gorges Area.Geological Science and Technology Information,30(4):132-136(in Chinese with English abstract).
Gao,T.M.,Liang,Y.F.,Liu,Y.H.,2009.Methods of E-conometric Analysis and Modeling.Tsinghua University Press,Beijing,81-86(in Chinese).
Luo,Y.,He,S.M.,He,J.C.,2014.Effect of Rainfall Patterns on Stability of Shallow Landslide.Earth Science,39(9):1357-1363(in Chinese with English abstract).
Wang,J.F.,2003.Quantitative Prediction of Landslide Using S-Curve.The Chinese Journal of Geological Hazard and Control,14(2):1-8(in Chinese with English abstract).
Wang,S.Q.,1999.The Monitoring and Prediction of the Landslide in the Three Gorges Region of Yangtze River.Geological Publishing House,Beijing,13-20(in Chinese).
Wu,Y.P.,Zhang,Q.X.,Tang,H.M.,et al.,2014.Landslide Hazard Warning Based on Effective Rainfall Rainfall Intensity.Earth Science,39(7):889-895(in Chinese with English abstract).
Xu,F.,Wang,Y.,Du,J.,et al.,2011.Study of Displacement Prediction Model of Iandslide Based on Time Series Analysis.Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics and Engineering,30(4):746-751(in Chinese with English abstract).
Xu,Q.,Huang,R.Q.,Li,X.Z.,2004.Research Progress in Time Forecast and Prediction of Landslides.Advance in Earth Sciences,19(3):478-483(in Chinese with English abstract).
Xu,Q.,Tang,M.G.,Xu,K.X.,et al.,2008.Research on Space-Time Evolution Laws and Early WarningPrediction of Landslides.Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics and Engineering,27(6):1104-1112(in Chinese with English abstract).
Xu,Q.,Zeng,Y.P.,2009.Research on Acceleration Variation Characteristics of Creep Landslide and Early-Warning Prediction Indicator of Critical Sliding.Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics and Engineering,28(6):1099-1106(in Chinese with English abstract).
Yin,K.L.,2004.Landslide Hazard Prediction and Evaluation.China University of Geosciences Press,Wuhan,8-9,74-78(in Chinese).
Zheng,D.J.,Gu,C.S.,Wu,Z.R.,2005.Time Series Evolution Forecasting Model of Slope Deformation Based on Multiple Factors.Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics and Engineering,24(17):3180-3184(in Chinese with English abstract).
Zhou,B.,2012.Analysis on Forecast of Xintan Landslide.Subgrade Engineering,(4):182-185(in Chinese with English abstract).
陈晓鹏,张强勇,刘大文,等,2008.边坡变形统计回归分析模型及应用.岩石力学与工程学报,27(增刊2):3673-3679.
丁继新,尚彦军,杨志发等,2004.降雨型滑坡预报新方法.岩石力学与工程学报,23(21):3738-3743.
杜娟,殷坤龙,柴波,2009.基于诱发因素响应分析的滑坡位移预测模型研究.岩石力学与工程学报,28(9):1783-1789.
樊晓一,2011.滑坡位移多重分形特征与滑坡演化预测.岩土力学,32(6):1831-1837.
高连通,易夏玮,李喜等,2011.三峡库区典型滑坡变形与高水位涨落关系研究.地质科技情报,30(4):132-136.
高铁梅,梁云芳,刘玉红,2009.计量经济分析方法与建模EViews应用及实例.北京:清华大学出版社,81-86.
罗渝,何思明,何尽川,2014.降雨类型对浅层滑坡稳定性的影响,地球科学,39(9):1357-1363.
王建锋,2003.滑坡发生时间预报分析.中国地质灾害与防治学报,14(2):1-8.
王尚庆,1999.长江三峡滑坡监测预报.北京:地质出版社,13-20.
吴益平,张秋霞,唐辉明,肖威,2014.基于有效降雨强度的滑坡灾害危险性预警,地球科学,39(7):889-895.
徐峰,汪洋,杜娟,等,2011.基于时间序列分析的滑坡位移预测模型研究.岩石力学与工程学报,30(4):746-751.
许强,黄润秋,李秀珍,2004.滑坡时间预测预报研究进展.地球科学进展,19(3):478-483.
许强,汤明高,徐开祥,等,2008.滑坡时空演化规律及预警预报研究.岩石力学与工程学报,27(6):1104-1112.
许强,曾裕平,2009.具有蠕变特点滑坡的加速度变化特征及临滑预警指标研究.岩石力学与工程学报,28(6):1099-1106.
殷坤龙,2004.滑坡灾害预测预报.武汉:中国地质大学出版社,8-9,74-78.
郑东健,顾冲时,吴中如,2005.边坡变形的多因素时变预测模型.岩石力学与工程学报,24(17):3180-3184.
周斌,2012.新滩滑坡预测预报分析.路基工程,(4):182-185.