基于马尔科夫链的我国三大运营商市场占有率预测分析
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摘要
合理预测产品市场占有率是企业进行营销决策时所要考虑的重要因素之一.以我国三大运营商移动用户数为基础,借助马尔科夫理论中的市场占有率的预测模型,探讨了在保持市场变化趋势稳定的情况下,未来市场占有率的变化情况.研究结果表明,未来我国移动、联通、电信三大运营商移动用户数的市场占有份额将稳定在65.7%20.0%14.3%左右.
Reasonable prediction of product market share is one of the important factors that enterprises should consider when making marketing decisions. Based on the number of mobile subscribers of China's three major operators, This paper discusses the future market share change under the condition of keeping market changing trend stable with the help of Markov's market share prediction model. The results show that the market share of the mobile subscribers of China Mobile, Unicom and Telecom will be about 65.7%, 20.0% and14.3% in the future.
Reasonable prediction of product market share is one of the important factors that enterprises should consider when making marketing decisions. Based on the number of mobile subscribers of China's three major operators, This paper discusses the future market share change under the condition of keeping market changing trend stable with the help of Markov's market share prediction model. The results show that the market share of the mobile subscribers of China Mobile, Unicom and Telecom will be about 65.7%, 20.0% and14.3% in the future.
引文
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[5]朱红波,高岩,后勇,陶莉.马尔可夫过程下多类用户智能电网实时电价[J].系统工程理论与实践,2018,38(3):807-816.
[6]刘鲁文,兴荣,何涛.基于马尔科夫链的教学效果评估方法[J].统计与决策,2014(3):56-62.
[7]赵钢.基于灰色马尔可夫模型的物流配送需求量预测研究[J].数学的实践与认识,2011,41(21):24-27.
[8]付本玉,王爱银.马尔可夫链在市场预测中的应用[J].合作经济与科技,2017(1):56-57.
[9]曹裕,吴堪,熊寿遥.随机需求下双产品混合生产的Markov决策过程研究[J].系统工程理论与实践,2018, 38(4):899-901.
[10]韦起,魏云捷.基于Markov-vine copula的我国网贷平台对传统金融机构风险传染效应研究[J].系统工程理论与实践,2018, 38(2):317-328.
[2] Mahadevan S, Time-variant reliability of brittle structural system[J]. Journal of engineering Mechanics, 1995, 121(3):414-423.
[3]黄劲松,赵平,王高,陆奇斌·基于顾客角度的市场占有率研究[J].中国管理科学,2004(2):7.
[4]黄晓彬,王春峰,房振明,熊春连.基于隐马尔科夫模型的中国股票信息探测[J].系统工程理论与实践,2012, 32(4):713-720.
[5]朱红波,高岩,后勇,陶莉.马尔可夫过程下多类用户智能电网实时电价[J].系统工程理论与实践,2018,38(3):807-816.
[6]刘鲁文,兴荣,何涛.基于马尔科夫链的教学效果评估方法[J].统计与决策,2014(3):56-62.
[7]赵钢.基于灰色马尔可夫模型的物流配送需求量预测研究[J].数学的实践与认识,2011,41(21):24-27.
[8]付本玉,王爱银.马尔可夫链在市场预测中的应用[J].合作经济与科技,2017(1):56-57.
[9]曹裕,吴堪,熊寿遥.随机需求下双产品混合生产的Markov决策过程研究[J].系统工程理论与实践,2018, 38(4):899-901.
[10]韦起,魏云捷.基于Markov-vine copula的我国网贷平台对传统金融机构风险传染效应研究[J].系统工程理论与实践,2018, 38(2):317-328.