煤矿危险源多层递阶模型及风险评价
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摘要
为研究有效的煤矿生产系统危险源信息表述方法以提高现场安全评价的可操作性,促进煤矿隐患风险预控与管理,针对煤矿危险源信息庞杂多变且难于辨识与控制的问题,基于霍尔三维结构模式和因素空间理论,建立煤矿危险源三维多粒度结构和危险源因素空间,并运用有限覆盖思想构建煤矿危险源多层递阶结构模型。在此基础上,研究利用煤矿危险源辨识信息建立动态安全评价体系及指标量化的方法;运用熵权法动态确定指标权值,运用灰色关联分析法描述评价指标量化值对于设定评价目标的接近程度,确定评价等级。结果表明:煤矿危险源多层递阶结构的建立将煤矿生产系统危险因素按不同维度归类表述,方便从不同角度提取生产系统安全要素并量化其安全状态,安全动态评价方法的应用可充分利用现场安全信息,反应生产系统安全状况,促进安全管理工作持续改进。
In order to improve the practical operability of the risk evaluation,promote the pre-control level of coal mine hidden danger and solve the problem that it is difficult to identify and control hazards information,the three-dimension multi-granularity structure model and factor spaces of mine hazards are constructed based on Hall three dimension structure and the theory factor spaces. And multi-layer hierarchical structure model of mine hazards is constructed based on Heine-Borel theorem. The dynamic safety evaluation index system is established and the indicators quantitative method is proposed based on coal mine hazards information; the indicators quantitative number and risk level are calculated by entropy weight and grey correlation analysis. The results indicate that the multi-layer hierarchical structure model reflects the safety situation of production system and improves the safety management level by classifying hazard factors from different dimensions and doing dynamic safety evaluation based on site hazards information.
In order to improve the practical operability of the risk evaluation,promote the pre-control level of coal mine hidden danger and solve the problem that it is difficult to identify and control hazards information,the three-dimension multi-granularity structure model and factor spaces of mine hazards are constructed based on Hall three dimension structure and the theory factor spaces. And multi-layer hierarchical structure model of mine hazards is constructed based on Heine-Borel theorem. The dynamic safety evaluation index system is established and the indicators quantitative method is proposed based on coal mine hazards information; the indicators quantitative number and risk level are calculated by entropy weight and grey correlation analysis. The results indicate that the multi-layer hierarchical structure model reflects the safety situation of production system and improves the safety management level by classifying hazard factors from different dimensions and doing dynamic safety evaluation based on site hazards information.
引文
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[3]田水承.第三类危险源辨识与控制研究[D].北京:北京理工大学,2001.TIAN Shui-cheng.Study on recognition and control for the third hazard[D].Beijing:Beijing Institute of Technology,2001.
[4]施式亮.矿井安全非线性动力学评价模型及应用研究[D].长沙:中南大学,2000.SHI Shi-liang.Study on non-linear dynamic safety assessment models and application in coal mines[D].Changsha:Central South University,2000.
[5]杨洋,赵映超,马有才,等.基于霍尔三维结构的项目风险动态管理研究[J].科技管理研究,2010,30(13):280-282.YANG Yang,ZHAO Ying-chao,MA You-cai,et al.Research of project dynamic risk management based on hall three dimension structure[J].Science and Technology Management Research,2010,30(13):280-282.
[6]汪培庄,Sugeno M.因素场与模糊集的背景结构[J].模糊数学,1982(2):45-54.WANG Pei-zhuang,Sugeno M.The factors field and background structure for fuzzy subsets[J].Fuzzy Mathematics,1982(2):45-54.
[7]汪培庄.因素空间与因素库[J].辽宁工程技术大学学报:自然科学版,2013(10):1 297-1 304.WANG Pei-zhuang.Factor spaces and factor data-bases[J].Journal of Liaoning Technical University:Natural Science,2013(10):1 297-1 304.
[8]李洪兴.因素空间理论与知识表示的数学框架(Ⅵ)-ASMm-func的生成与综合决策的一般模型[J].系统工程学报,1999,14(1):1-8.LI Hong-xing.Factor spaces and mathematical frame of knowledge representation(Ⅵ)-generation of ASMm-func and general models of multi factorial decision-making[J].Journal of Systems Engineering,1999,14(1):1-8.
[9]Garvey P R,Lansdowne Z F.Risk matrix:an approach for identifying,assessing,and ranking program risks[J].Air Force Journal of Logistics,1998(25):16-19.
[10]罗毅,李昱龙.基于熵权法和灰色关联分析法的输电网规划方案综合决策[J].电网技术,2013,37(1):77-81.LUO Yi,LI Yu-long.Comprehensive decision-making of transmission network planning based on entropy weight and grey relational analysis[J].Power System Technology,2013,37(1):77-81.