基于多属性逆向拍卖的工程担保分保竞拍
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摘要
工程担保机构常面临着单笔承保保额或担保余额超限的问题,产生了分保的需求,但中国工程担保市场分保渠道不通畅且缺乏分保操作指导。该文将中国初步形成的工程担保体系视为一个竞争性的分保平台,提出利用挂牌竞拍机制实现工程担保的分保操作,有利于适度增加分保交易的竞争性,提高分保交易效率,进一步推进分保费率的市场化。该文结合工程担保行业实务以及网上多属性逆向拍卖的特点,构建了工程担保分保竞拍博弈模型,模型包含了关于候选分入人的3类竞拍属性:分保综合费用、分保承保风险评分和来自第三方企业征信系统的信用评价。分析了候选分入人的Bayes-Nash均衡策略。该文基于Monte Carlo模拟方法对所提出模型进行仿真研究,分析了在候选分入人不同人数的情况下,中标分入人的总得分及各属性得分的变化趋势,仿真结果与实际情况基本吻合。
Surety companies always face the problem that the guaranteed amount per bond or the guaranteed balance often exceeds its limit.Surety companies then need surety reinsurance but such policies still lack operational guidance on the use of surety reinsurance in China.This paper presents the surety reinsurance system as a competitive surety reinsurance platform and introduces an auction mechanism for the reinsurance operations to increase the reinsurance efficiency and competitiveness and promote market-oriented reinsurance premiums.Then,a surety reinsurance game model is developed based on a multi-attribute reverse auction with a Bayesian-Nash equilibrium strategy.Its three bidding attributes for the candidate reinsurer include the total reinsurance expense,the underwriting risk and the credit rating from the credit reporting system.A Monte Carlo simulation is then used to simulate the model and analyze the trends of the total score and the sub-attribute scores of the winning candidate for various numbers of candidates.The simulation results agree well with real data.
Surety companies always face the problem that the guaranteed amount per bond or the guaranteed balance often exceeds its limit.Surety companies then need surety reinsurance but such policies still lack operational guidance on the use of surety reinsurance in China.This paper presents the surety reinsurance system as a competitive surety reinsurance platform and introduces an auction mechanism for the reinsurance operations to increase the reinsurance efficiency and competitiveness and promote market-oriented reinsurance premiums.Then,a surety reinsurance game model is developed based on a multi-attribute reverse auction with a Bayesian-Nash equilibrium strategy.Its three bidding attributes for the candidate reinsurer include the total reinsurance expense,the underwriting risk and the credit rating from the credit reporting system.A Monte Carlo simulation is then used to simulate the model and analyze the trends of the total score and the sub-attribute scores of the winning candidate for various numbers of candidates.The simulation results agree well with real data.
引文
[1]国务院办公厅.国务院办公厅关于促进建筑业持续健康发展的意见[R/OL].(2017-02-24)[2018-01-20].http://www.gov.cn/zhengce/content/2017-02/24/content_5170625.htm.General Office of the State Council.Opinions of the General Office of the State Council on promoting sustainable and healthy development of construction industry[R/OL].(2017-02-24)[2018-01-20].http://www.gov.cn/zhengce/content/2017-02/24/content_5170625.htm.(in Chinese)
[2]虞琤.英国劳合社模式的解析及借鉴[J].上海保险,2013(1):34-36,54.YU C.Analysis and reference of the Llyod’s of London model[J].Shanghai Insurance,2013(1):34-36,54.(in Chinese)
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[4]刘新来.信用担保概论与实务[M].北京:经济科学出版社,2013.LIU X L.An outline and practice of credit guarantee[M].Beijing:Economic Science Press,2013.(in Chinese)
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[6]RUSSELL J S.Surety bonds for construction contracts[M].Arlington,USA:ASCE Press,2000.
[7]WANG H,DENG X M,FENG K,et al.Re-surety system as a governance innovation in China’s specialized construction contract bond market[C]//Proceedings of the 2014International Conference on Construction and Real Estate Managemen.Kunming,China,2014:82-91.
[8]孙昌兴,张春梅.从国内外经验看中国中小企业信用再担保制度的构建之道[J].西北农林科技大学学报(社会科学版),2011,11(5):112-118.SUN C X,ZHANG C M.A study on construction of China’s credit re-guarantee system for SMEs[J].Journal of Northwest A&F University(Social Science Edition),2011,11(5):112-118.(in Chinese)
[9]汪辉.构建工程担保安全网的关键要素研究[D].北京:清华大学,2015.WANG H.Research on the key elements of safety net for surety bond[D].Beijing:Tsinghua University,2015.(in Chinese)
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[12]THIEL S E.Multidimensional auctions[J].Economics Letters,1988,28(1):37-40.
[13]CHE Y K.Design competition through multidimensional auctions[J].RAND Journal of Economics,1993,24(4):668-680.
[14]PEPALL L M,RECHARDS D J.Reach for the stars:A strategic bidding game[J].Economica,2001,68(272):489-504.
[15]DAVID E,AZOULAY-SCHWARTZB R,KRAUS S.Bidding in sealed-bid and English multi-attribute auctions[J].Decision Support Systems,2006,42(2):527-556.
[16]KOSTAMIS D,BEIL D R,DUENYAS I.Total-cost procurement auctions:Impact of suppliers’cost adjustments on auction format choice[J].Management Science,2009,55(12):1985-1999.
[17]PERRONE G,ROMA P,LONIGRO G.Designing multi-attribute auctions for engineering services procurement in new product development in the auto motive context[J].International Journal of Production Economics,2010(124):20-31.
[18]王明喜,谢海滨,胡毅.基于简单加权法的多属性采购拍卖模型[J].系统工程理论与实践,2014,34(11):2772-2782.WANG M X,XIE H B,HU Y.A multi-attribute procurement auction model based on the simple additive weighting method[J].Systems Engineering Theory&Practice,2014,34(11):2772-2782.(in Chinese)
[19]薛彦广,邓晓梅,冯珂.面向最终用户的建筑市场逆向多属性电子招投标博弈分析[J].清华大学学报(自然科学版),2016,56(8):836-843.XUE Y G,DENG X M,FENG K.Game analysis of reverse multiple attribute electronic bidding in construction markets for end users[J].Journal of Tsinghua University(Science and Technology),2016,56(8):836-843.(in Chinese)
[20]汪定伟.网上拍卖的模型与机制设计[M].北京:电子工业出版社,2014.WANG D W.Online auction model and mechanism design[M].Beijing:Publishing House of Electronic Industry,2014.(in Chinese)
[21]刘金章.再保险理论与实务[M].北京:清华大学出版社,2014.LIU J Z.Reinsurance theory and practice[M].Beijing:Tsinghua University Press,2014.(in Chinese)
[2]虞琤.英国劳合社模式的解析及借鉴[J].上海保险,2013(1):34-36,54.YU C.Analysis and reference of the Llyod’s of London model[J].Shanghai Insurance,2013(1):34-36,54.(in Chinese)
[3]邓晓梅.中国工程保证担保制度研究[M].北京:中国建筑工业出版社,2012.DENG X M.Study on the construction bonding system in China[M].Beijing:China Architecture and Building Press,2012.(in Chinese)
[4]刘新来.信用担保概论与实务[M].北京:经济科学出版社,2013.LIU X L.An outline and practice of credit guarantee[M].Beijing:Economic Science Press,2013.(in Chinese)
[5]赵景文.反担保与再担保[N].检察日报,2002-06-08(3).ZHAO J W.Counter-guarantee and re-guarantee[N].Procuratorate Daily,2002-06-08(3).(in Chinese)
[6]RUSSELL J S.Surety bonds for construction contracts[M].Arlington,USA:ASCE Press,2000.
[7]WANG H,DENG X M,FENG K,et al.Re-surety system as a governance innovation in China’s specialized construction contract bond market[C]//Proceedings of the 2014International Conference on Construction and Real Estate Managemen.Kunming,China,2014:82-91.
[8]孙昌兴,张春梅.从国内外经验看中国中小企业信用再担保制度的构建之道[J].西北农林科技大学学报(社会科学版),2011,11(5):112-118.SUN C X,ZHANG C M.A study on construction of China’s credit re-guarantee system for SMEs[J].Journal of Northwest A&F University(Social Science Edition),2011,11(5):112-118.(in Chinese)
[9]汪辉.构建工程担保安全网的关键要素研究[D].北京:清华大学,2015.WANG H.Research on the key elements of safety net for surety bond[D].Beijing:Tsinghua University,2015.(in Chinese)
[10]Bureau of the Fiscal Service,U.S.Department of the Treasury.Surety bonds.[R/OL].(2018-01-16)[2018-01-20].https://www.fiscal.treasury.gov/fsreports/ref/suretyBnd/surety_home.htm.
[11]MCAFEE R P,MCMILLAN J.Auctions and bidding[J].Journal of Economic Literature,1987,25(2):699-738.
[12]THIEL S E.Multidimensional auctions[J].Economics Letters,1988,28(1):37-40.
[13]CHE Y K.Design competition through multidimensional auctions[J].RAND Journal of Economics,1993,24(4):668-680.
[14]PEPALL L M,RECHARDS D J.Reach for the stars:A strategic bidding game[J].Economica,2001,68(272):489-504.
[15]DAVID E,AZOULAY-SCHWARTZB R,KRAUS S.Bidding in sealed-bid and English multi-attribute auctions[J].Decision Support Systems,2006,42(2):527-556.
[16]KOSTAMIS D,BEIL D R,DUENYAS I.Total-cost procurement auctions:Impact of suppliers’cost adjustments on auction format choice[J].Management Science,2009,55(12):1985-1999.
[17]PERRONE G,ROMA P,LONIGRO G.Designing multi-attribute auctions for engineering services procurement in new product development in the auto motive context[J].International Journal of Production Economics,2010(124):20-31.
[18]王明喜,谢海滨,胡毅.基于简单加权法的多属性采购拍卖模型[J].系统工程理论与实践,2014,34(11):2772-2782.WANG M X,XIE H B,HU Y.A multi-attribute procurement auction model based on the simple additive weighting method[J].Systems Engineering Theory&Practice,2014,34(11):2772-2782.(in Chinese)
[19]薛彦广,邓晓梅,冯珂.面向最终用户的建筑市场逆向多属性电子招投标博弈分析[J].清华大学学报(自然科学版),2016,56(8):836-843.XUE Y G,DENG X M,FENG K.Game analysis of reverse multiple attribute electronic bidding in construction markets for end users[J].Journal of Tsinghua University(Science and Technology),2016,56(8):836-843.(in Chinese)
[20]汪定伟.网上拍卖的模型与机制设计[M].北京:电子工业出版社,2014.WANG D W.Online auction model and mechanism design[M].Beijing:Publishing House of Electronic Industry,2014.(in Chinese)
[21]刘金章.再保险理论与实务[M].北京:清华大学出版社,2014.LIU J Z.Reinsurance theory and practice[M].Beijing:Tsinghua University Press,2014.(in Chinese)