我国电力项目海外投资风险评价研究
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摘要
针对"一带一路"背景下中国电力项目海外投资面临的各类风险,从电力投资潜力、政治风险、经济基本面、营商环境等4个一级指标出发,构建出评价电力工程项目海外投资风险的指标体系。运用熵权法确定各评价指标的客观权重,并在此基础上采用灰色关联分析法对"一带一路"沿线的15个国家进行评价,同时对评价指标的权重和15个国家的电力投资风险进行了量化分析。结果表明:电力投资潜力和政治风险对电力项目海外投资的影响最大;波兰、马来西亚、俄罗斯、智利是投资风险最小的国家。
In light of various risks that Chinese power companies under the"Belt and Road"initiative have encountered in their overseas investment,an indicator system is proposed,which consists of four primary indicators,namely,power investment potential,political risk,economic fundamental,and investment environment,to evaluate the overseas investment risk of power companies.The entropy weight method is used to determine the objective weight of each evaluation indicator,and based on this,the gray correlation analysis method is used to evaluate 15 countries along the"Belt and Road"initiative. Meanwhile,the weight of evaluation indicators and the risk of power investment in 15 countries are quantitatively analyzed. The results showthat power investment potential and political risk have the greatest impact on power companies' overseas investment with Poland,Malaysia,Russia and Chile being the countries with the least investment risk.
In light of various risks that Chinese power companies under the"Belt and Road"initiative have encountered in their overseas investment,an indicator system is proposed,which consists of four primary indicators,namely,power investment potential,political risk,economic fundamental,and investment environment,to evaluate the overseas investment risk of power companies.The entropy weight method is used to determine the objective weight of each evaluation indicator,and based on this,the gray correlation analysis method is used to evaluate 15 countries along the"Belt and Road"initiative. Meanwhile,the weight of evaluation indicators and the risk of power investment in 15 countries are quantitatively analyzed. The results showthat power investment potential and political risk have the greatest impact on power companies' overseas investment with Poland,Malaysia,Russia and Chile being the countries with the least investment risk.
引文
[1]袁家海.一带一路电力合作潜力巨大[EB/OL].(2017-07-21)[2018-04-02]. http://opinion. caixin. com/2017-07-21/101120114. html.
[2]王晓波.“一带一路”背景下中国项目海外投资风险的管控[J].中小项目管理与科技(下旬刊),2017(12):30-31.
[3]陈曦.中国项目海外投资的“拦路虎”———透过失败案例看风险[J].国际工程与劳务,2015(12):25-30.
[4]张世翔,张晓铃.中国电网建设“走出去”战略实施路径研究[J].上海电力学院学报,2016,32(3):306-310.
[5]马琛.中国项目海外直接投资风险分析[D].南宁:广西大学,2013.
[6]杨恒,王勇,裴秀高,等.基于层次分析和模糊评价的电力信息系统风险评估方法[J].上海电力学院学报,2013,29(6):518-522.
[7] DUAN F,JI Q,LIU B Y,et al. Energy investment risk assessment for nations along China’s Belt&Road initiative[J].Journal of Cleaner Production,2018,170(1):535-547.
[8]桂祥友,郁钟铭.基于灰色关联分析的瓦斯突出危险性风险评价[J].采矿与安全工程学报,2006(4):464-467.
[9] ZHANG X B. Venture capital investment base on grey relational theory[J]. Physics Procedia,2012(33):1825-1832.
[10]罗毅,李昱龙.基于熵权法和灰色关联分析法的输电网规划方案综合决策[J].电网技术,2013,37(1):77-81.
[11]黄速建,李倩,王季.我国不同所有制工业项目效率比较评价———基于熵权法和灰色关联分析法的分析[J].河北经贸大学学报,2017,38(3):72-79.
[12]冯运卿,李雪梅,李学伟.基于熵权法与灰色关联分析的铁路安全综合评价[J].安全与环境学报,2014,14(2):73-79.
[13]顾晓安,李毅.灰色关联分析法在重大错报风险评估中的应用研究[J].南京审计学院学报,2014,11(5):105-112.
[14]施泉生,牛沁.基于灰色模糊综合评判的10 k V配电网安全风险评估[J].上海电力学院学报,2016,32(1):46-50.
[2]王晓波.“一带一路”背景下中国项目海外投资风险的管控[J].中小项目管理与科技(下旬刊),2017(12):30-31.
[3]陈曦.中国项目海外投资的“拦路虎”———透过失败案例看风险[J].国际工程与劳务,2015(12):25-30.
[4]张世翔,张晓铃.中国电网建设“走出去”战略实施路径研究[J].上海电力学院学报,2016,32(3):306-310.
[5]马琛.中国项目海外直接投资风险分析[D].南宁:广西大学,2013.
[6]杨恒,王勇,裴秀高,等.基于层次分析和模糊评价的电力信息系统风险评估方法[J].上海电力学院学报,2013,29(6):518-522.
[7] DUAN F,JI Q,LIU B Y,et al. Energy investment risk assessment for nations along China’s Belt&Road initiative[J].Journal of Cleaner Production,2018,170(1):535-547.
[8]桂祥友,郁钟铭.基于灰色关联分析的瓦斯突出危险性风险评价[J].采矿与安全工程学报,2006(4):464-467.
[9] ZHANG X B. Venture capital investment base on grey relational theory[J]. Physics Procedia,2012(33):1825-1832.
[10]罗毅,李昱龙.基于熵权法和灰色关联分析法的输电网规划方案综合决策[J].电网技术,2013,37(1):77-81.
[11]黄速建,李倩,王季.我国不同所有制工业项目效率比较评价———基于熵权法和灰色关联分析法的分析[J].河北经贸大学学报,2017,38(3):72-79.
[12]冯运卿,李雪梅,李学伟.基于熵权法与灰色关联分析的铁路安全综合评价[J].安全与环境学报,2014,14(2):73-79.
[13]顾晓安,李毅.灰色关联分析法在重大错报风险评估中的应用研究[J].南京审计学院学报,2014,11(5):105-112.
[14]施泉生,牛沁.基于灰色模糊综合评判的10 k V配电网安全风险评估[J].上海电力学院学报,2016,32(1):46-50.