社会资本、收入多样化与农户贫困脆弱性
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摘要
运用陕西省秦巴山区的实地调研数据,基于两阶段最小二乘法(2SLS)和内生转换回归模型,解决了样本选择偏差以及异质性等问题,对农户的社会资本、收入多样化和农户贫困脆弱性三者之间的关系进行了探讨,并在反事实假设的基础上估计了收入多样化和收入专业化对贫困脆弱性影响的平均处理效应。研究结果表明,社会资本对收入多样化具有显著的正向影响,对贫困脆弱性有显著负向影响,社会资本每增加一个单位,贫困脆弱性下降7. 95%。相较于收入多样化,收入专业化有助于降低未来发生贫困的可能性。其中,当收入多样化农户选择采用收入专业化时,贫困脆弱性将下降0. 135 9,当专业化农户选择收入多样化时,贫困脆弱性将上升0. 114 8。根据上述结论提出以下政策建议:(1)社会资本能够有效降低贫困脆弱性,因此在对贫困地区农户进行精准扶贫时,应注重农户社会资本培育,加强农村文化建设,丰富农民日常生活娱乐,充分重视非正规风险承担网络有效降低贫困脆弱性的作用。(2)正规风险制度的不完善会促使农民选取收入多样化来抵御风险,但就长期来讲收入多样化并不能帮助农民有效脱贫。因此,政府应加强正规风险制度的培育和建设,注重提升农户抵御风险的能力,降低收入多样化在贫困地区的保险功能。(3)相较于收入多样化,收入专业化有助于降低未来发生贫困的可能性。政府应针对当地资源经济特征,落实和推进"一乡一业、一村一品"战略,逐步形成专业化生产格局,建立起产业扶贫的长效机制。通过加强农户技术培训,提升农户技能型人力资本,使其持久性地融入产业化扶贫项目中,提高内生性生计能力,实现永久性脱贫目标。本文的研究对于帮助农户有效脱贫,实现乡村振兴有着重要意义。
This paper used the field survey data of the Qinba Mountainous Area in Shanxi Province,based on the two-stage least squares method( 2SLS) and the endogenous conversion regression model to solve problems of sample selection bias and heterogeneity,the relationship among rural households' social capital,income diversification,and vulnerability of rural households was discussed.Based on counterfactual assumptions,the average treatment effects of income diversification and income specialization on poverty vulnerability were estimated. The research results showed that social capital has a significantly positive impact on income diversification and a significant negative impact on the vulnerability of poverty; for every additional unit of social capital,the poverty vulnerability decreased by 7. 95%; compared with income diversification,income specialization helped to reduce the possibility of future poverty.Besides,when the income diversification farmer chooses to adopt income specialization,the poverty vulnerability will decrease by0. 135 9. When the specialized farmer chooses to diversify income,the poverty vulnerability will increase by 0. 114 8. Based on the above conclusions,the following policy recommendations are proposed: First,Social capital can effectively reduce the vulnerability of poverty. Therefore,when carrying out accurate poverty alleviation for farmers in poverty-stricken areas,it should pay attention to the cultivation of farmers' social capital,strengthen the construction of rural culture,enrich the daily life and entertainment of farmers,and pay full attention to the role of informal risk-taking networks in effectively reducing poverty vulnerability. Second,The imperfection of the formal risk system will encourage farmers to choose income diversification to resist risks. But in the long run,income diversification will not help farmers to get rid of poverty effectively. Therefore,the government should strengthen the cultivation and construction of a formal risk system,focus on improving farmers' ability to withstand risks,and reduce the insurance function of income diversification in poor areas. Third,Compared to income diversification,income specialization can help reduce the possibility of future poverty. The government should implement and promote the strategy of'one town,one industry,one village and one product'.According to the characteristics of local resources and economy,the government should gradually form a specialized production pattern,and establish a long-term mechanism for industrial poverty alleviation. By strengthening the technical training of farmers,the skilled human capital of farmers will be upgraded,and they will be permanently integrated into the industrialized poverty alleviation projects to improve endogenous livelihoods and achieve permanent poverty alleviation goals. This research is of great significance to help the rural households get rid of poverty effectively and realize the rural revitalization.
This paper used the field survey data of the Qinba Mountainous Area in Shanxi Province,based on the two-stage least squares method( 2SLS) and the endogenous conversion regression model to solve problems of sample selection bias and heterogeneity,the relationship among rural households' social capital,income diversification,and vulnerability of rural households was discussed.Based on counterfactual assumptions,the average treatment effects of income diversification and income specialization on poverty vulnerability were estimated. The research results showed that social capital has a significantly positive impact on income diversification and a significant negative impact on the vulnerability of poverty; for every additional unit of social capital,the poverty vulnerability decreased by 7. 95%; compared with income diversification,income specialization helped to reduce the possibility of future poverty.Besides,when the income diversification farmer chooses to adopt income specialization,the poverty vulnerability will decrease by0. 135 9. When the specialized farmer chooses to diversify income,the poverty vulnerability will increase by 0. 114 8. Based on the above conclusions,the following policy recommendations are proposed: First,Social capital can effectively reduce the vulnerability of poverty. Therefore,when carrying out accurate poverty alleviation for farmers in poverty-stricken areas,it should pay attention to the cultivation of farmers' social capital,strengthen the construction of rural culture,enrich the daily life and entertainment of farmers,and pay full attention to the role of informal risk-taking networks in effectively reducing poverty vulnerability. Second,The imperfection of the formal risk system will encourage farmers to choose income diversification to resist risks. But in the long run,income diversification will not help farmers to get rid of poverty effectively. Therefore,the government should strengthen the cultivation and construction of a formal risk system,focus on improving farmers' ability to withstand risks,and reduce the insurance function of income diversification in poor areas. Third,Compared to income diversification,income specialization can help reduce the possibility of future poverty. The government should implement and promote the strategy of'one town,one industry,one village and one product'.According to the characteristics of local resources and economy,the government should gradually form a specialized production pattern,and establish a long-term mechanism for industrial poverty alleviation. By strengthening the technical training of farmers,the skilled human capital of farmers will be upgraded,and they will be permanently integrated into the industrialized poverty alleviation projects to improve endogenous livelihoods and achieve permanent poverty alleviation goals. This research is of great significance to help the rural households get rid of poverty effectively and realize the rural revitalization.
引文
[1]沈冰清,郭忠兴.新农保改善了农村低收入家庭的脆弱性吗?——基于分阶段的分析[J].中国农村经济,2018(1):90-107.
[2]KATCHOVA A L. The farm diversification discount[J]. American journal of agricultural economics,2005,87(4):984-994.
[3]黄建强,龙安梅.产业化、“干中学”与农村人力资源开发——基于会同县农村调查的研究[J].湖南农业大学学报(社会科学版),2010,11(1):16-20.
[4]吴炜.干中学:农民工人力资本获得路径及其对收入的影响[J].农业经济问题,2016,37(9):53-60+111.
[5]World Bank. World development report 2000/2001:attacking poverty[M]. New York:Oxford University Press,2001.
[6]韩峥.脆弱性与农村贫困[J].农业经济问题,2004(10):8-12,79.
[7]陈传波.农户风险与脆弱性:一个分析框架及贫困地区的经验[J].农业经济问题,2005(8):47-50.
[8]黄承伟,王小林,徐丽萍.贫困脆弱性:概念框架和测量方法[J].农业技术经济,2010(8):4-11.
[9]王昕.基于社会资本视角的农村社区小型水利设施合作供给研究[D].杨凌:西北农林科技大学,2014:15.
[10]王格玲,陆迁.社会网络影响农户技术采用倒U型关系的检验——以甘肃省民勤县节水灌溉技术采用为例[J].农业技术经济,2015(10):92-106.
[11]GROOTAERT C,OH G,SWAMY A. Social capital,household welfare and poverty in Burkina Faso[J]. Journal of African economies,2002,11(1),4-38.
[12]刘彬彬,陆迁,李晓平.社会资本与贫困地区农户收入——基于门槛回归模型的检验[J].农业技术经济,2014(11):40-51.
[13]吴本健,郭晶晶,马九杰.社会资本与农户风险的非正规分担机制:理论框架与经验证据[J].农业技术经济,2014(4):4-13.
[14]WUEPPER D,YESIGAT A H,SAUER J. Social capital,income diversification and climate change adaptation:panel data evidence from rural Ethiopia[J]. Journal of agricultural economics,2018,69(2):458-475.
[15]乔丹,陆迁,徐涛.社会网络、推广服务与农户节水灌溉技术采用——以甘肃省民勤县为例[J].资源科学,2017,39(3):441-450.
[16]刘一伟,刁力.社会资本、非农就业与农村居民贫困[J].华南农业大学学报(社会科学版),2018,17(2):61-71.
[17]陈传波.农户多样化选择行为实证分析[J].农业技术经济,2007(1):48-54.
[18]BARRETT C B,BEZUNEH M,ABOUD A. Income diversification,poverty traps and policy shocks in Gote d’Ivoire and Kenya[J].Food policy,2001,26(4):367-384.
[19]王昕,陆迁.小型水利设施建设中农户支付行为的影响因素分析——基于社会资本视角[J].软科学,2014,28(3):135-139.
[20]陆迁,王昕.社会资本综述及分析框架[J].商业研究,2012(2):141-145.
[21]梁义成,李树茁,李聪.基于多元概率单位模型的农户多样化生计策略分析[J].统计与决策,2011(15):63-67.
[22]CHAUDHURI S,JALAN J,SURYAHADI A. Assessing household vulnerability to poverty from cross-sectional data:a methodology and estimates from indonesia[R]. New York:Columbia University,2002:1-25.
[23]李聪.易地移民搬迁对农户贫困脆弱性的影响——来自陕南山区的证据[J].经济经纬,2018,35(1):35-40.
[24]杨龙,汪三贵.贫困地区农户脆弱性及其影响因素分析[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2015,25(10):150-156.
[25]邰秀军,罗丞,李树茁,李聪.外出务工对贫困脆弱性的影响:来自西部山区农户的证据[J].世界经济文汇,2009(6):67-76.
[26]万广华,刘飞,章元.资产视角下的贫困脆弱性分解:基于中国农户面板数据的经验分析[J].中国农村经济,2014(4):4-19.
[27]DIMOVA R D,SEN K. Is household income diversification a means of survival or a means of accumulation? panel data evidence from Tanzania[J]. The University of Manchester,2010(2):122.
[28]丁冬,王秀华,郑风田.社会资本、农户福利与贫困——基于河南省农户调查数据[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2013,23(7):122-128.
[29]WALKER T S,RYAN J G. Village and household economics in India’s semi-arid tropics[M]. Baltimore:Johns Hopkins University Press,1990:340-366.
[30]WELDEGEBRIEL Z,FOLLONI G,PROWSE M. The determinants of non-farm income diversification in rural Ethiopia[J]. Journal of poverty alleviation and international development,2015,6(1):109-130.
[31]李齐云,席华.新农保对家庭贫困脆弱性的影响——基于中国家庭追踪调查数据的研究[J].上海经济研究,2015(7):46-54.
[32]李雪松,黄彦彦.房价上涨、多套房决策与中国城镇居民储蓄率[J].经济研究,2015,50(9):100-113.
[33]贾蕊,陆迁.信贷约束、社会资本与节水灌溉技术采用——以甘肃张掖为例[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2017,27(5):54-62.
[34]杨文,孙蚌珠,王学龙.中国农村家庭脆弱性的测量与分解[J].经济研究,2012,47(4):40-51.
[35]周广肃,樊纲,申广军.收入差距、社会资本与健康水平——基于中国家庭追踪调查(CFPS)的实证分析[J].管理世界,2014(7):12-21,51,187.
[2]KATCHOVA A L. The farm diversification discount[J]. American journal of agricultural economics,2005,87(4):984-994.
[3]黄建强,龙安梅.产业化、“干中学”与农村人力资源开发——基于会同县农村调查的研究[J].湖南农业大学学报(社会科学版),2010,11(1):16-20.
[4]吴炜.干中学:农民工人力资本获得路径及其对收入的影响[J].农业经济问题,2016,37(9):53-60+111.
[5]World Bank. World development report 2000/2001:attacking poverty[M]. New York:Oxford University Press,2001.
[6]韩峥.脆弱性与农村贫困[J].农业经济问题,2004(10):8-12,79.
[7]陈传波.农户风险与脆弱性:一个分析框架及贫困地区的经验[J].农业经济问题,2005(8):47-50.
[8]黄承伟,王小林,徐丽萍.贫困脆弱性:概念框架和测量方法[J].农业技术经济,2010(8):4-11.
[9]王昕.基于社会资本视角的农村社区小型水利设施合作供给研究[D].杨凌:西北农林科技大学,2014:15.
[10]王格玲,陆迁.社会网络影响农户技术采用倒U型关系的检验——以甘肃省民勤县节水灌溉技术采用为例[J].农业技术经济,2015(10):92-106.
[11]GROOTAERT C,OH G,SWAMY A. Social capital,household welfare and poverty in Burkina Faso[J]. Journal of African economies,2002,11(1),4-38.
[12]刘彬彬,陆迁,李晓平.社会资本与贫困地区农户收入——基于门槛回归模型的检验[J].农业技术经济,2014(11):40-51.
[13]吴本健,郭晶晶,马九杰.社会资本与农户风险的非正规分担机制:理论框架与经验证据[J].农业技术经济,2014(4):4-13.
[14]WUEPPER D,YESIGAT A H,SAUER J. Social capital,income diversification and climate change adaptation:panel data evidence from rural Ethiopia[J]. Journal of agricultural economics,2018,69(2):458-475.
[15]乔丹,陆迁,徐涛.社会网络、推广服务与农户节水灌溉技术采用——以甘肃省民勤县为例[J].资源科学,2017,39(3):441-450.
[16]刘一伟,刁力.社会资本、非农就业与农村居民贫困[J].华南农业大学学报(社会科学版),2018,17(2):61-71.
[17]陈传波.农户多样化选择行为实证分析[J].农业技术经济,2007(1):48-54.
[18]BARRETT C B,BEZUNEH M,ABOUD A. Income diversification,poverty traps and policy shocks in Gote d’Ivoire and Kenya[J].Food policy,2001,26(4):367-384.
[19]王昕,陆迁.小型水利设施建设中农户支付行为的影响因素分析——基于社会资本视角[J].软科学,2014,28(3):135-139.
[20]陆迁,王昕.社会资本综述及分析框架[J].商业研究,2012(2):141-145.
[21]梁义成,李树茁,李聪.基于多元概率单位模型的农户多样化生计策略分析[J].统计与决策,2011(15):63-67.
[22]CHAUDHURI S,JALAN J,SURYAHADI A. Assessing household vulnerability to poverty from cross-sectional data:a methodology and estimates from indonesia[R]. New York:Columbia University,2002:1-25.
[23]李聪.易地移民搬迁对农户贫困脆弱性的影响——来自陕南山区的证据[J].经济经纬,2018,35(1):35-40.
[24]杨龙,汪三贵.贫困地区农户脆弱性及其影响因素分析[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2015,25(10):150-156.
[25]邰秀军,罗丞,李树茁,李聪.外出务工对贫困脆弱性的影响:来自西部山区农户的证据[J].世界经济文汇,2009(6):67-76.
[26]万广华,刘飞,章元.资产视角下的贫困脆弱性分解:基于中国农户面板数据的经验分析[J].中国农村经济,2014(4):4-19.
[27]DIMOVA R D,SEN K. Is household income diversification a means of survival or a means of accumulation? panel data evidence from Tanzania[J]. The University of Manchester,2010(2):122.
[28]丁冬,王秀华,郑风田.社会资本、农户福利与贫困——基于河南省农户调查数据[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2013,23(7):122-128.
[29]WALKER T S,RYAN J G. Village and household economics in India’s semi-arid tropics[M]. Baltimore:Johns Hopkins University Press,1990:340-366.
[30]WELDEGEBRIEL Z,FOLLONI G,PROWSE M. The determinants of non-farm income diversification in rural Ethiopia[J]. Journal of poverty alleviation and international development,2015,6(1):109-130.
[31]李齐云,席华.新农保对家庭贫困脆弱性的影响——基于中国家庭追踪调查数据的研究[J].上海经济研究,2015(7):46-54.
[32]李雪松,黄彦彦.房价上涨、多套房决策与中国城镇居民储蓄率[J].经济研究,2015,50(9):100-113.
[33]贾蕊,陆迁.信贷约束、社会资本与节水灌溉技术采用——以甘肃张掖为例[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2017,27(5):54-62.
[34]杨文,孙蚌珠,王学龙.中国农村家庭脆弱性的测量与分解[J].经济研究,2012,47(4):40-51.
[35]周广肃,樊纲,申广军.收入差距、社会资本与健康水平——基于中国家庭追踪调查(CFPS)的实证分析[J].管理世界,2014(7):12-21,51,187.