山东省对外贸易与经济增长关系研究
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摘要
在新时代全面推进对外开放背景下,对外贸易成为影响一个国家或地区经济增长的重要因素。在分析山东省经济增长与对外贸易现状的基础上,选取1984年～2017年山东省进口额、出口额与地区生产总值(GDP)为数据样本,进行Granger因果检验,建立协整方程、VAR模型对山东省对外贸易与经济增长关系进行实证分析。结果表明:山东省的出口商品贸易结构和贸易方式处于中低层次;对外贸易与经济增长存在长期的稳定协整关系;进出口是经济增长的单向Granger原因;对外贸易对经济增长具有促进作用,且出口贸易促进作用更为明显。
In the new era of comprehensively advancing the opening up,the foreign trade has become an important factor affecting the economic growth of a country or region. Based on the analysis of the economic growth and the status quo of foreign trade in Shandong province, this paper selects the import value, export value and regional gross domestic product(GDP) from 1984 to 2017 as the data samples which were used to carry out the Granger causality test, and establish the cointegration equation and the VAR model to analyze the relationship between foreign trade and economic growth in Shandong Province. The results show that the structure and mode of export trade in Shandong Province are at a low level; Foreign trade and economic growth have longterm stability and co-integration relationship; Import and export are the one-way Granger cause of economic growth; Foreign trade has a positive effect on economic growth. And the role of export trade promotion is more obvious.
In the new era of comprehensively advancing the opening up,the foreign trade has become an important factor affecting the economic growth of a country or region. Based on the analysis of the economic growth and the status quo of foreign trade in Shandong province, this paper selects the import value, export value and regional gross domestic product(GDP) from 1984 to 2017 as the data samples which were used to carry out the Granger causality test, and establish the cointegration equation and the VAR model to analyze the relationship between foreign trade and economic growth in Shandong Province. The results show that the structure and mode of export trade in Shandong Province are at a low level; Foreign trade and economic growth have longterm stability and co-integration relationship; Import and export are the one-way Granger cause of economic growth; Foreign trade has a positive effect on economic growth. And the role of export trade promotion is more obvious.
引文
[1]张永年,潘竟虎.中国地级及以上城市对外开放度时空分异格局[J].干旱区地理,2018(5):1123-1131.
[2]吴绍洪,刘路路,刘燕华等.“一带一路”陆域地理格局与环境变化风险[J].地理学报,2018(7):1214-1225.
[3]李计广,王红梅,张娟.改革开放四十年对外贸易在我国经济中的角色变迁和展望[J].国际贸易,2018(7):4-10.
[4]徐建中,李奉书,黄婧涵.对外贸易促进中国区域经济增长了吗?---基于FDI的双重门槛效应研究[J].管理现代化,2018(2):21-24.
[8]郭雁,田飞.对外贸易与经济增长关系的实证检验[J].统计与决策,2016(1):124-127.
[6]丁荣荣.新常态下中国对外贸易结构变化对经济增长的影响研究[J].价格月刊,2015(10):61-65.
[7]苏小莉.我国对外贸易与经济增长关系的实证研究[J].现代管理科学,2018(2):87-89.
[8]刘爱珍,漆雁斌.基于VAR模型的我国对外贸易与经济增长关系实证研究[J].经济论坛,2018(9):140-145.
[9]吕荣杰,张冰冰,张义明.我国对外承包工程与出口贸易关系研究---基于VAR模型的脉冲响应与方差分解[J].国际商务(对外经济贸易大学学报),2018(4):46-57.
[2]吴绍洪,刘路路,刘燕华等.“一带一路”陆域地理格局与环境变化风险[J].地理学报,2018(7):1214-1225.
[3]李计广,王红梅,张娟.改革开放四十年对外贸易在我国经济中的角色变迁和展望[J].国际贸易,2018(7):4-10.
[4]徐建中,李奉书,黄婧涵.对外贸易促进中国区域经济增长了吗?---基于FDI的双重门槛效应研究[J].管理现代化,2018(2):21-24.
[8]郭雁,田飞.对外贸易与经济增长关系的实证检验[J].统计与决策,2016(1):124-127.
[6]丁荣荣.新常态下中国对外贸易结构变化对经济增长的影响研究[J].价格月刊,2015(10):61-65.
[7]苏小莉.我国对外贸易与经济增长关系的实证研究[J].现代管理科学,2018(2):87-89.
[8]刘爱珍,漆雁斌.基于VAR模型的我国对外贸易与经济增长关系实证研究[J].经济论坛,2018(9):140-145.
[9]吕荣杰,张冰冰,张义明.我国对外承包工程与出口贸易关系研究---基于VAR模型的脉冲响应与方差分解[J].国际商务(对外经济贸易大学学报),2018(4):46-57.