基于三参数区间数的施工导流方案多目标决策方法
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摘要
在导流方案决策模型中,将决策指标视为定值无法反映其不确定性特性,而常规的二参数区间数默认区间范围内平均取值,易产生较大误差.为此,本文引入三参数区间数理论,在区间数上下限的基础上,引入重心点反映决策者最理想偏好;提出施工导流总费用、导流风险损失及停工天数等决策指标的区间范围数学表达,综合主客观法确定区间数指标权重.基于相对贴近度概念,计算指标值与基准点间距离的比例值,对导流方案的进行优劣排序,从而实现施工导流方案多目标决策.将该方法应用到某高堆石坝初期施工导流方案优选中,验证了该方法能较客观地量化导流指标,为导流方案多目标决策提供了方法和依据.
In the decision making model of river diversion scheme,the indices regarded as fixed values cannot reflect their uncertainties.The method by two-parameter interval number average value in the default interval range leads to large errors easily.On basis of the lower limit of the interval number,the center of gravity was introduced to reflect the best preference of the decision maker,and three-parameter interval number method is introduced to build a decision-making model for river diversion schemes.The indices,such as construction cost,river diversion risk loss and suspension are considered as the range change interval,not fixed values.And then the paper puts forward a mathematical expression for interval ranges,and combining subjective to objective weights as the comprehensive weight.Based on relative closeness degree conception,the river diversion schemes are sorted by calculating the ratio of distance between index value and base point.Finally,the model is applied to an initial river diversion for a high rockfill dam to verify the objectively quantifying indices.The study results may provide a way and basis for river diversion multiobjective decision.
In the decision making model of river diversion scheme,the indices regarded as fixed values cannot reflect their uncertainties.The method by two-parameter interval number average value in the default interval range leads to large errors easily.On basis of the lower limit of the interval number,the center of gravity was introduced to reflect the best preference of the decision maker,and three-parameter interval number method is introduced to build a decision-making model for river diversion schemes.The indices,such as construction cost,river diversion risk loss and suspension are considered as the range change interval,not fixed values.And then the paper puts forward a mathematical expression for interval ranges,and combining subjective to objective weights as the comprehensive weight.Based on relative closeness degree conception,the river diversion schemes are sorted by calculating the ratio of distance between index value and base point.Finally,the model is applied to an initial river diversion for a high rockfill dam to verify the objectively quantifying indices.The study results may provide a way and basis for river diversion multiobjective decision.
引文
[1]徐森泉,胡志根,刘全,等.基于熵权的导流标准多目标决策分析[J].中国农村水利水电,2004,60(8):45-47.
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[7]张超.基于区间数理论的施工初期导流标准多属性决策[J].人民黄河,2015,37(3):135-138.
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[11]王霞,党耀国.三参数区间灰数信息下的动态多属性决策方法[J].控制与决策,2015,30(9):1623-1629.
[12]孟伟,刘思峰,曾波.区间灰数的标准化及其预测模型的构建与应用研究[J].控制与决策,2012,27(5):773-776.
[13]刘潋,胡志根.高堆石坝施工度汛挡水风险动态控制模型研究[J].水力发电学报,2016,35(2):82-89.
[14]钟登华,黄伟,安娜.基于Monte-Carlo方法的施工截流风险率估计方法研究[J].水利学报,2006,48(10):1212-1216.
[15]张堃,周德云.熵权与群组AHP相结合的TOPSIS法多目标威胁评估[J].系统仿真学报,2008,20(7):1661-1664.
[2]范锡峨,柴换城,胡志根.基于决策者风险态度的导流方案多目标决策研究[J].河海大学学报(自然科学版),2006,34(5):522-525.
[3]胡志根,范锡峨,刘全,等.施工导流系统综合风险分配机制的设计研究[J].水利学报,2006,37(10):1270-1277.
[4]晋良海,田斌,梁川.施工度汛的分割多目标风险模型及应用[J].四川大学学报(工程科学版),2010,42(1):87-90.
[5]薛进平,胡志根,刘全.基于决策主体多元性的施工导流方案优选[J].武汉大学学报(工学版),2012,45(3):282-284.
[6]张超,胡志根,刘全.基于最大熵原理的施工导流随机模糊风险分析[J].四川大学学报(工程科学版),2012,44(2):59-63.
[7]张超.基于区间数理论的施工初期导流标准多属性决策[J].人民黄河,2015,37(3):135-138.
[8]Guerine A,El Hami A,Walha L,et al.Dynamic Response of Wind Turbine Gear System with Uncertainbut-bounded Parameters Using Interval Analysis Method[J].Renewable Energy,2017,113:679-687.
[9]Sofi A,Muscolino G,Elishakoff I.Natural Frequencies of Structures with Interval Parameters[J].Journal of Sound and Vibration,2015,347:79-95.
[10]Simi8V,Dabi8-Ostoji8S,Bojovi8N.Interval-parameter Semi-infinite Programming Model for Used Tire Management and Planning under Uncertainty[J].Computers&Industrial Engineering,2017,113:487-501.
[11]王霞,党耀国.三参数区间灰数信息下的动态多属性决策方法[J].控制与决策,2015,30(9):1623-1629.
[12]孟伟,刘思峰,曾波.区间灰数的标准化及其预测模型的构建与应用研究[J].控制与决策,2012,27(5):773-776.
[13]刘潋,胡志根.高堆石坝施工度汛挡水风险动态控制模型研究[J].水力发电学报,2016,35(2):82-89.
[14]钟登华,黄伟,安娜.基于Monte-Carlo方法的施工截流风险率估计方法研究[J].水利学报,2006,48(10):1212-1216.
[15]张堃,周德云.熵权与群组AHP相结合的TOPSIS法多目标威胁评估[J].系统仿真学报,2008,20(7):1661-1664.