基于EFAST法的多管火箭射击密集度全局灵敏度分析
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摘要
为定量分析各种随机因素(弹、炮、气象环境等)对射击密集度的影响程度,对多管火箭射击密集度的影响因素进行全局灵敏度分析。基于火箭飞行动力学方程建立火箭弹落点计算模型,采用傅里叶幅值灵敏度检验扩展法(extended Fourier amplitude sensitivity test,EFAST)对落点计算模型进行全局灵敏度分析,并对某122 mm多管火箭炮进行分析计算。分析结果表明:火箭弹的质量误差及弹体的起始扰动是影响射击密集度的主要因素,各随机因素参数间存在一定的交互作用,EFAST计算量较小、结果直观清晰、便于分析。
To analyze the influence of random factors such(rocket, launcher, meteorological environment, etc.) on firing dispersion quantitatively, the global sensitivity analysis was adopted. The calculation model of rocket falling points was established based on the flight dynamics equations of rockets and a global sensitivity analysis method, namely the extended Fourier amplitude sensitivity test(EFAST), was introduced and applied to the parameter sensitivity analysis of the model. As an example, the global sensitivity analysis was carried out on a 122 mm multiple launch rockets system. The analysis results show that the mass error and initial disturbances are the major factors influencing the firing dispersion; there are certain interactions between random factors in the model; EFAST has the advantages of minor calculation and the results are more intuitive, clearer and easier to analyze.
To analyze the influence of random factors such(rocket, launcher, meteorological environment, etc.) on firing dispersion quantitatively, the global sensitivity analysis was adopted. The calculation model of rocket falling points was established based on the flight dynamics equations of rockets and a global sensitivity analysis method, namely the extended Fourier amplitude sensitivity test(EFAST), was introduced and applied to the parameter sensitivity analysis of the model. As an example, the global sensitivity analysis was carried out on a 122 mm multiple launch rockets system. The analysis results show that the mass error and initial disturbances are the major factors influencing the firing dispersion; there are certain interactions between random factors in the model; EFAST has the advantages of minor calculation and the results are more intuitive, clearer and easier to analyze.
引文
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[14]芮筱亭,陆毓琪,王国平,等.多管火箭发射动力学仿真与试验测试方法[M].北京:国防工业出版社,2003:145,164.
[15]韩子鹏.弹箭外弹道学[M].北京:北京理工大学出版社,2008:153-154.
[2]王国平,芮筱亭,陈卫东.多管武器系统密集度仿真技术[J].系统仿真学报,2004,16(6):963-966.
[3]郭锡福.远程火炮武器系统射击精度分析[M].北京:国防工业出版社,2004:35-48.
[4]王兆胜,刘志强,杨保元,等.各因素对射击精度影响研究[J].弹箭与制导学报,2005,25(3):198-200.
[5]曹宁,王晓峰,徐亚栋,等.基于逐步回归法的车载炮射击精度影响因素分析[J].南京理工大学学报,2013,37(4):557-560.
[6]徐崇刚,胡远满,常禹,等.生态模型的灵敏度分析[J].应用生态学报,2004,15(6):1056-1062.
[7]SALTELLI A,TARANTOLA S,CHAN K P S.Aquantitative model-independent method for global sensitivity analysis of model output[J].Technometrics,1999,41(1):39-56.
[8]汪宏伟,汪玉,赵建华.EFAST法在管路系统冲击响应中的应用研究[J].振动与冲击,2010,29(4):197-199.
[9]SOBOL I M.Sensitivity estimates for nonlinear mathematical models[J].MMCE,1993,1(4):407-414.
[10]SOBOL I M.Global sensitivity indices for nonlinear mathematical models and their Monte Carlo estimates[J].Mathematics and Computers in Simulation,2001,55(1-3):271-280.
[11]CUKIER R I,LEVINE H B,SHULER K E.Nonlinear sensitivity analysis of multiparameter model systems[J].Journal of Computational Physics,1978,81(1):1-42.
[12]LU Y C,MOHANTY S.Sensitivity analysis of a complex proposed geologic waste disposal system using the Fourier Amplitude sensitivity test method[J].Reliability Engineering&System Safety,2001,72(3):275-291.
[13]PHILIPPE L,ERIC F,THIERRY A M.A node pruning algorithm based on a Fourier amplitude sensitivity test method[J].Neural Networks,IEEE Transactions on,2006,17(2):273-293.
[14]芮筱亭,陆毓琪,王国平,等.多管火箭发射动力学仿真与试验测试方法[M].北京:国防工业出版社,2003:145,164.
[15]韩子鹏.弹箭外弹道学[M].北京:北京理工大学出版社,2008:153-154.