雅鲁藏布江色东普沟崩滑-碎屑流堵江灾害初步研究
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摘要
2018年10月17日5时许,西藏林芝市雅鲁藏布江左岸色东普沟上游发生冰崩岩崩,冲击下部的早期崩坡积物和冰碛物,形成滑坡-碎屑流进入雅鲁藏布江,堵江堰塞约56 h后自然漫顶泄流,整个过程形成崩滑-碎屑流-堰塞湖-溃决洪水灾害链。采用多年气温降水数据分析、多时相卫星遥感解译冰川退缩、直升机抵近观察堰塞坝、Scheidegger公式计算崩滑-碎屑流运动速度、Gutenberg-Richter公式计算地震活动序列b值和多因素赋值统计研判未来冰崩地点规模,得到堰塞坝体积约为3100×10~4m~3(含以往多次崩滑堵江残留堆积),滑坡-碎屑流运动距离超过8 km,平均运动速度约20 m/s,整个运动过程历时6.7 min,具有高速远程性质。色东普沟域崩滑-碎屑流是在地貌高陡、岩体破碎、气候变暖、局地降水、冰川退缩、断裂活动和地震效应(b值在0.7左右)等多种因素综合作用下形成的,今后相当长的时期内仍会多次发生。初步预测,当局地平均气温超过13℃、1 h降雨量超过5 mm或24 h降雨量超过10 mm,或地震PGA大于0.18 g,可能引发新的崩滑-碎屑流事件,造成雅鲁藏布江再次壅堵。针对该区域山高谷深,人烟稀少,交通困难的实际,提出了适应自然、全面避让和适当疏导的防灾减灾对策。
A large-scale glacial/rock fall occurred in the upstream of Sedongpu basin on the left bank of the Yarlung Zangbo River in Linzhi of Tibet on October 17, 2018. The runout materials were composed of glaciers and rocks, which impacted the accumulation and moraine of the lower part, then formed a debris flow and dammed the Yarlung Zangbo River impounding a barrier lake. This study aims to identify the triggering mechanisms and propose a theoretical basis for the development of landslide hazard prevention and reduction. In this paper, the authors adopted short distance observation by helicopter, statistical analysis of climate change data, interpretation of multi-temporal satellite remote images, calculation of landslide-debris flow velocity using the Scheidegger formula and the b value of seismic activity sequence calculated by Gutenberg-Richter formula as well as multi-factor assignment statistics to evaluate the site and scale of the future glacial falls. It was found that the debris flow was triggered under the condition of high and steep terrain, broken rock mass, climate warming, regional rainfall, glacier ablation, fracture activity and earthquake damage(b value being about 0.7). The volume of the deposition materials was estimated at 31 × 10~6 m~3(including previous residual accumulation), which were mainly composed of gravel soil, a small amount of ice and big boulder. The whole event lasted 6.7 minutes with an average movement speed of about 20 m/s. The runout distance of the landslide was more than 8 km.Two-thirds of the Yarlung Zangbo River had been blocked before the glacial/rock fall-landslide-debris flow event that occurred on October 17, 2018. The countermeasures of disaster prevention and reduction which include adaption to the nature, comprehensive avoidance and reasonable dredging are put forward in consideration of the reality of high and steep hillslope, sparse population and traffic inconvenience in this area. The Sedongpu event that occurred on October 17, 2018 was a typical cascading landslide hazard,with a process of landslide-debris flow-dammed lake-outburst flood disaster. Such events will continue to occur frequently for a long time in the future. Based on a comprehensive analysis, the authors have reached the conclusion that a new landslide-debris flow-dammed lake event will be triggered again when the average temperature exceeds 13 ℃, or precipitation exceeds 5 mm/h or 10 mm/d, or the earthquake PGA is greater than 0.18 g.
A large-scale glacial/rock fall occurred in the upstream of Sedongpu basin on the left bank of the Yarlung Zangbo River in Linzhi of Tibet on October 17, 2018. The runout materials were composed of glaciers and rocks, which impacted the accumulation and moraine of the lower part, then formed a debris flow and dammed the Yarlung Zangbo River impounding a barrier lake. This study aims to identify the triggering mechanisms and propose a theoretical basis for the development of landslide hazard prevention and reduction. In this paper, the authors adopted short distance observation by helicopter, statistical analysis of climate change data, interpretation of multi-temporal satellite remote images, calculation of landslide-debris flow velocity using the Scheidegger formula and the b value of seismic activity sequence calculated by Gutenberg-Richter formula as well as multi-factor assignment statistics to evaluate the site and scale of the future glacial falls. It was found that the debris flow was triggered under the condition of high and steep terrain, broken rock mass, climate warming, regional rainfall, glacier ablation, fracture activity and earthquake damage(b value being about 0.7). The volume of the deposition materials was estimated at 31 × 10~6 m~3(including previous residual accumulation), which were mainly composed of gravel soil, a small amount of ice and big boulder. The whole event lasted 6.7 minutes with an average movement speed of about 20 m/s. The runout distance of the landslide was more than 8 km.Two-thirds of the Yarlung Zangbo River had been blocked before the glacial/rock fall-landslide-debris flow event that occurred on October 17, 2018. The countermeasures of disaster prevention and reduction which include adaption to the nature, comprehensive avoidance and reasonable dredging are put forward in consideration of the reality of high and steep hillslope, sparse population and traffic inconvenience in this area. The Sedongpu event that occurred on October 17, 2018 was a typical cascading landslide hazard,with a process of landslide-debris flow-dammed lake-outburst flood disaster. Such events will continue to occur frequently for a long time in the future. Based on a comprehensive analysis, the authors have reached the conclusion that a new landslide-debris flow-dammed lake event will be triggered again when the average temperature exceeds 13 ℃, or precipitation exceeds 5 mm/h or 10 mm/d, or the earthquake PGA is greater than 0.18 g.
引文
Evans S G,Hungr O,Clague J J.2001.Dynamics of the 1984 rock avalanche and associated distal debris flow on Mount Cayley,British Columbia,Canada:Implications for landslide hazard assessment on dissected volcanoes[J].Engineering Geology,61(1):29-51.
Fu Zhengxiang,LüXiaojian,Shao Huicheng,Ding Xiang.2008.Analysis on statistical characteristics of b values of aftershocks series in China continent and its Subregions[J].Earthquakes,28(3):1-7(in Chinese with English abstract).
Gutenberg B,Richter C F.1942.Earthquake magnitude,intensity,energy and acceleration[J].Bull.Seism.Soc.Amer.,32:163-191.
Hu Guisheng,Chen Ningsheng,Deng Mingfeng,Wang Yuanhuan.2011.Classification and initiation conditions of debris flows in Linzhi area,Tibet[J].Bulletin of Soil and Water Conservation,31(2):193-198(in Chinese with English abstract).
Huang Wenxing,Wang Guocan,Wang An,Cao Shuzhao,Caokai.2013.The morphology of the Yalung Zangbo river in the great canyon region and its implications[J].Geological Bulletin of China,32(1):130-140(in Chinese with English abstract).
International union of geological sciences working group on landslide.1995.A suggested method for describing the rate of movement of a landslide[J].Bulletin of the International Association of Engineering Geology,52:75-78.
Ji Qin.2018.Glacier Variations in Responses to Climate Change in the Himalayas During 1990-2015[D].Lanzhou:Lanzhou University(in Chinese with English abstract).
Li Cuiping,Wang Ping,Qian Da,Tang Maoyun.2015.Ages of the recent two episodes of glacially dammed lakes along the upstream of the Yarlung Zangbo gorge[J].Seismology and Geology,37(4):1136-1146(in Chinese with English abstract).
Li Honglian,Zhao Shangxue,Li Aidi.1994.Climate environments made in debris-flows[C]//Proceedings of 4th Academic Workshop on Debris-Flows of China.Lanzhou:Gansu Culture Press,1-9(in Chinese).
Li JiJun,Wen Shixuan,Zhang Qingsong,Wang Fubao,Zheng Benxing,Li Bingyuan.1979.Research on the ages,ranges and patterns[J].Scientia Sinica Terrae(D),9(6):608-616(in Chinese with English abstract).
Liu Chuanzheng.2017.Research on high speed and long-distance of the avalanches or landslide-debris streams[J].Geological Review,63(6):1563-1575(in Chinese with English abstract).
Liu Yuping,Montgomery D R,Hallet B,Tang Wenqing,Zhang Jianlong,Zhang Xuanyang.2006.Quaternary glacier blocking events at the entrance of Yarlungzangbo great canyon,southeast Tibet[J].Quaternary Sciences,26(1):52-62(in Chinese with English abstract).
Qu Yongping,ang Chuan,Liu Yang,Chang Ming,Tang Desheng.2015.Investigation and analysis of glacier debris flow in Nyingchi area,TIBET[J].Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics and Engineering,34(Supp.):4013-4022(in Chinese with English abstract).
Scheidegger A E.1973.On the prediction of the reach and velocity of catastrophic landslides[J].Rock Mech.Rock Eng.,5:11-40.
Shangguan D,Ding Y,Liu S,Xie Z,T.Pieczonka,Xu J,B.Moldobekov.2017.Quick release of internal water storage in a glacier leads to underestimation of the hazard potential of glacial lake qutburst floods from Lake Merzbacher in Central Tian Shan Mountains[J].Geophysical Research Letters,44(19):9786-9795.
Tong Liqiang,Tu Jienan,Pei Lixin,Guo Zhaocheng,Zheng Xiongwei,Fan Jinghui.2018.Preliminary discussion of the frequently debris flow events in Sedongpu Basin at Gyalaperi peak,YarlungZangbo River[J].Journal of Engineering Geology,26(6):1552-1561(in Chinese with English abstract).
Wang Yi,Zhang Yunda.2015.Impact analysis of Gega glacier debris flow blocking of river at entrance of Brahmaputra Bend[J].Sichuan Water Power,34(4):81-84+140(in Chinese with English abstract).
Xu Zhiqin,Yang Jingsui,Hou Zengqian,Zhang Zeming,Zeng Lingsen,Li Haibing,Zhang Jianxin,Li Zhonghai,Ma Xuxuan.2016.The progress in the study of continental dynamics of the Tibetan Plateau[J].Geology in China,43(1):1-42(in Chinese with English abstract).
Yang Yichou.1991.Geoporphological development and its influence on the environment in Mt.Namjagbarwa region[J].Scientia geographica Sinica,11(2):165-171(in Chinese with English abstract).
Yang Zongxi.2017.Anthropocene dawn,Chinese geologists should be active[J].Geology in China,44(2):411-412(in Chinese).
Zhang Peiquan,LiuXiaohan,Kong Ping.2008.Evidence for glacial movement since last glacial period in the Great Canyon,Yarlung Zangbo,SE Tibet and its tectono-environmental implications[J].Chinese Journal of Geology,43(3):588-602(in Chinese with English abstract).
Zhang Wenjing.1985.Some features o f the surge glacie in the M t.Namjagbarwa[J].Mountain Research,3(4):234-238(in Chinese with English abstract).
Zhang Yueqiao,Li Hailong.Late Cenozoic tectonic events in east Tibetan Plateau and extrusion-related orogenic system[J].Geology in China,(6):1829-1852(in Chinese with English abstract).
Zhang zhenshuan.1988.Fluctuation of glaciers on the northwest slope of Mt.Nanjagbarwa since the last glaciations[J].Journal of Glaciology and Geocryoloy,10(2):181-188(in Chinese with English abstract).
傅征祥,吕晓健,邵辉成,丁香.2008.中国大陆及其分区余震序列b值的统计特征分析[J].地震,28(3):1-7.
胡桂胜,陈宁生,邓明枫,王元欢.2011.西藏林芝地区泥石流类型及形成条件分析[J].水土保持通报,31(2):193-198.
黄文星,王国灿,王岸,曹树钊,曹凯.2013.雅鲁藏布江大拐弯地区河流形态特征及其意义[J].地质通报,32(1):130-140.
冀琴.2018.1990-2015年喜马拉雅山冰川变化及其对气候波动的响应[D].兰州:兰州大学.
李翠平,王萍,钱达,唐茂云.2015.雅鲁藏布江大峡谷入口河段最近两期古堰塞湖事件的年龄[J].地震地质,37(4):1136-1146.
李鸿连,赵尚学,李爱弟.1994.泥石流发育的气候环境[C]//第四届全国泥石流学术会议论文集.兰州:甘肃文化出版社.1-9.
李吉均,文世宣,张青松,王富葆,郑本兴,李炳元.1979.青藏高原隆起的时代,幅度和形式的探讨[J].中国科学(D辑),9(6):608-616.
刘传正.2017.论崩塌滑坡-碎屑流高速远程问题[J].地质论评,63(6):1563-1575.
刘宇平,Montgomery D R,Hallet B,唐文清,张建龙,张选阳.2006.西藏东南雅鲁藏布大峡谷入口处第四纪多次冰川阻江事件[J].第四纪研究,26(1):52-62.
屈永平,唐川,刘洋,常鸣,唐德胜.2015.西藏林芝地区冰川降雨型泥石流调查分析[J].岩石力学与工程学报,34(增2):4013-4022.
童立强,涂杰楠,裴丽鑫,郭兆成,郑雄伟,范景辉.2018.雅鲁藏布江加拉白垒峰色东普流域频繁发生碎屑流事件初步探讨[J].工程地质学报,26(6):1552-1561.
王毅,张运达.2015.雅鲁藏布江大拐弯入口格嘎冰川泥石流堵江影响分析[J].四川水力发电,34(4):81-84,140.
许志琴,杨经绥,侯增谦,张泽明,曾令森,李海兵,张建新,李忠海,马绪宣.2016.青藏高原大陆动力学研究若干进展[J].中国地质,43(1):1-42.
杨逸畴.1991.南迦巴瓦峰地区地貌的形成及其对自然环境的影响[J].地理科学,11(2):165-171.
杨宗喜.2017.人类世呼之欲出,中国地质学家应当有所作为[J].中国地质,44(2):411-412.
张沛全,刘小汉,孔屏.2008.雅鲁藏布江大拐弯地区末次冰期以来的冰川活动证据及其构造-环境意义[J].地质科学,43(3):588-602.
张文敬.1985.南迦巴瓦峰跃动冰川的某些特征[J].山地研究,3(4):234-238.
张岳桥,李海龙.2016.青藏高原东部晚新生代重大构造事件与挤出造山构造体系[J].中国地质,43(6):1829-1852.
张振拴.1988.南迎巴瓦峰西北坡末次冰期以来的冰川变化[J].冰川冻土.10(2):181-188.
Fu Zhengxiang,LüXiaojian,Shao Huicheng,Ding Xiang.2008.Analysis on statistical characteristics of b values of aftershocks series in China continent and its Subregions[J].Earthquakes,28(3):1-7(in Chinese with English abstract).
Gutenberg B,Richter C F.1942.Earthquake magnitude,intensity,energy and acceleration[J].Bull.Seism.Soc.Amer.,32:163-191.
Hu Guisheng,Chen Ningsheng,Deng Mingfeng,Wang Yuanhuan.2011.Classification and initiation conditions of debris flows in Linzhi area,Tibet[J].Bulletin of Soil and Water Conservation,31(2):193-198(in Chinese with English abstract).
Huang Wenxing,Wang Guocan,Wang An,Cao Shuzhao,Caokai.2013.The morphology of the Yalung Zangbo river in the great canyon region and its implications[J].Geological Bulletin of China,32(1):130-140(in Chinese with English abstract).
International union of geological sciences working group on landslide.1995.A suggested method for describing the rate of movement of a landslide[J].Bulletin of the International Association of Engineering Geology,52:75-78.
Ji Qin.2018.Glacier Variations in Responses to Climate Change in the Himalayas During 1990-2015[D].Lanzhou:Lanzhou University(in Chinese with English abstract).
Li Cuiping,Wang Ping,Qian Da,Tang Maoyun.2015.Ages of the recent two episodes of glacially dammed lakes along the upstream of the Yarlung Zangbo gorge[J].Seismology and Geology,37(4):1136-1146(in Chinese with English abstract).
Li Honglian,Zhao Shangxue,Li Aidi.1994.Climate environments made in debris-flows[C]//Proceedings of 4th Academic Workshop on Debris-Flows of China.Lanzhou:Gansu Culture Press,1-9(in Chinese).
Li JiJun,Wen Shixuan,Zhang Qingsong,Wang Fubao,Zheng Benxing,Li Bingyuan.1979.Research on the ages,ranges and patterns[J].Scientia Sinica Terrae(D),9(6):608-616(in Chinese with English abstract).
Liu Chuanzheng.2017.Research on high speed and long-distance of the avalanches or landslide-debris streams[J].Geological Review,63(6):1563-1575(in Chinese with English abstract).
Liu Yuping,Montgomery D R,Hallet B,Tang Wenqing,Zhang Jianlong,Zhang Xuanyang.2006.Quaternary glacier blocking events at the entrance of Yarlungzangbo great canyon,southeast Tibet[J].Quaternary Sciences,26(1):52-62(in Chinese with English abstract).
Qu Yongping,ang Chuan,Liu Yang,Chang Ming,Tang Desheng.2015.Investigation and analysis of glacier debris flow in Nyingchi area,TIBET[J].Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics and Engineering,34(Supp.):4013-4022(in Chinese with English abstract).
Scheidegger A E.1973.On the prediction of the reach and velocity of catastrophic landslides[J].Rock Mech.Rock Eng.,5:11-40.
Shangguan D,Ding Y,Liu S,Xie Z,T.Pieczonka,Xu J,B.Moldobekov.2017.Quick release of internal water storage in a glacier leads to underestimation of the hazard potential of glacial lake qutburst floods from Lake Merzbacher in Central Tian Shan Mountains[J].Geophysical Research Letters,44(19):9786-9795.
Tong Liqiang,Tu Jienan,Pei Lixin,Guo Zhaocheng,Zheng Xiongwei,Fan Jinghui.2018.Preliminary discussion of the frequently debris flow events in Sedongpu Basin at Gyalaperi peak,YarlungZangbo River[J].Journal of Engineering Geology,26(6):1552-1561(in Chinese with English abstract).
Wang Yi,Zhang Yunda.2015.Impact analysis of Gega glacier debris flow blocking of river at entrance of Brahmaputra Bend[J].Sichuan Water Power,34(4):81-84+140(in Chinese with English abstract).
Xu Zhiqin,Yang Jingsui,Hou Zengqian,Zhang Zeming,Zeng Lingsen,Li Haibing,Zhang Jianxin,Li Zhonghai,Ma Xuxuan.2016.The progress in the study of continental dynamics of the Tibetan Plateau[J].Geology in China,43(1):1-42(in Chinese with English abstract).
Yang Yichou.1991.Geoporphological development and its influence on the environment in Mt.Namjagbarwa region[J].Scientia geographica Sinica,11(2):165-171(in Chinese with English abstract).
Yang Zongxi.2017.Anthropocene dawn,Chinese geologists should be active[J].Geology in China,44(2):411-412(in Chinese).
Zhang Peiquan,LiuXiaohan,Kong Ping.2008.Evidence for glacial movement since last glacial period in the Great Canyon,Yarlung Zangbo,SE Tibet and its tectono-environmental implications[J].Chinese Journal of Geology,43(3):588-602(in Chinese with English abstract).
Zhang Wenjing.1985.Some features o f the surge glacie in the M t.Namjagbarwa[J].Mountain Research,3(4):234-238(in Chinese with English abstract).
Zhang Yueqiao,Li Hailong.Late Cenozoic tectonic events in east Tibetan Plateau and extrusion-related orogenic system[J].Geology in China,(6):1829-1852(in Chinese with English abstract).
Zhang zhenshuan.1988.Fluctuation of glaciers on the northwest slope of Mt.Nanjagbarwa since the last glaciations[J].Journal of Glaciology and Geocryoloy,10(2):181-188(in Chinese with English abstract).
傅征祥,吕晓健,邵辉成,丁香.2008.中国大陆及其分区余震序列b值的统计特征分析[J].地震,28(3):1-7.
胡桂胜,陈宁生,邓明枫,王元欢.2011.西藏林芝地区泥石流类型及形成条件分析[J].水土保持通报,31(2):193-198.
黄文星,王国灿,王岸,曹树钊,曹凯.2013.雅鲁藏布江大拐弯地区河流形态特征及其意义[J].地质通报,32(1):130-140.
冀琴.2018.1990-2015年喜马拉雅山冰川变化及其对气候波动的响应[D].兰州:兰州大学.
李翠平,王萍,钱达,唐茂云.2015.雅鲁藏布江大峡谷入口河段最近两期古堰塞湖事件的年龄[J].地震地质,37(4):1136-1146.
李鸿连,赵尚学,李爱弟.1994.泥石流发育的气候环境[C]//第四届全国泥石流学术会议论文集.兰州:甘肃文化出版社.1-9.
李吉均,文世宣,张青松,王富葆,郑本兴,李炳元.1979.青藏高原隆起的时代,幅度和形式的探讨[J].中国科学(D辑),9(6):608-616.
刘传正.2017.论崩塌滑坡-碎屑流高速远程问题[J].地质论评,63(6):1563-1575.
刘宇平,Montgomery D R,Hallet B,唐文清,张建龙,张选阳.2006.西藏东南雅鲁藏布大峡谷入口处第四纪多次冰川阻江事件[J].第四纪研究,26(1):52-62.
屈永平,唐川,刘洋,常鸣,唐德胜.2015.西藏林芝地区冰川降雨型泥石流调查分析[J].岩石力学与工程学报,34(增2):4013-4022.
童立强,涂杰楠,裴丽鑫,郭兆成,郑雄伟,范景辉.2018.雅鲁藏布江加拉白垒峰色东普流域频繁发生碎屑流事件初步探讨[J].工程地质学报,26(6):1552-1561.
王毅,张运达.2015.雅鲁藏布江大拐弯入口格嘎冰川泥石流堵江影响分析[J].四川水力发电,34(4):81-84,140.
许志琴,杨经绥,侯增谦,张泽明,曾令森,李海兵,张建新,李忠海,马绪宣.2016.青藏高原大陆动力学研究若干进展[J].中国地质,43(1):1-42.
杨逸畴.1991.南迦巴瓦峰地区地貌的形成及其对自然环境的影响[J].地理科学,11(2):165-171.
杨宗喜.2017.人类世呼之欲出,中国地质学家应当有所作为[J].中国地质,44(2):411-412.
张沛全,刘小汉,孔屏.2008.雅鲁藏布江大拐弯地区末次冰期以来的冰川活动证据及其构造-环境意义[J].地质科学,43(3):588-602.
张文敬.1985.南迦巴瓦峰跃动冰川的某些特征[J].山地研究,3(4):234-238.
张岳桥,李海龙.2016.青藏高原东部晚新生代重大构造事件与挤出造山构造体系[J].中国地质,43(6):1829-1852.
张振拴.1988.南迎巴瓦峰西北坡末次冰期以来的冰川变化[J].冰川冻土.10(2):181-188.