防灾应急电源优化调度的机会约束规划方法
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摘要
在电力系统防灾应急体系中,需要合理调度防灾应急电源,以最大限度地降低停电损失。在实际停电事故发生时,调度环境非常复杂且具有很多不确定性因素,而现有防灾应急电源优化调度方面的研究大多未计及多重不确定性因素的影响。在此背景下,假定应急电源的行驶时间近似服从正态分布,失电用户的缺电功率近似服从区间均匀分布,在此基础上建立基于机会约束规划的防灾应急电源优化调度模型。该模型以重要失电用户的总停电损失最小为优化目标,采用置信水平处理模型中的不确定参数,并在量子进化算法中嵌入蒙特卡洛仿真来求解。算例分析结果表明所提方法可以处理电力应急过程中的多重不确定性因素,合理分配防灾应急电源,进而降低停电损失。
In disaster prevention and emergency support of a power system,the reasonable scheduling of emergency power sources plays an important role in minimizing the outage losses of important customers. The operating condition of a power system is complex and uncertain when power outage occurs. How to properly schedule emergency power sources under multiple uncertain factors has not yet been systematically addressed. Given this background,it is assumed that the traveling time of each emergency power source approximately follows the normal distribution and the outage power of each important customer approximately follows the uniform distribution. An optimal scheduling model of emergency power sources is developed under the well-established chance-constrained programming framework. In the developed optimization model,the objective is formulated as the minimization of the total outage losses of important customers,and the confidence level is adopted to deal with the uncertain parameters. The quantum evolutionary algorithm with the Monte Carlo simulation embedded is employed to solve the optimization model.Case studies show that the proposed scheme can handle multiple uncertain factors in emergency processes,and properly schedule emergency power sources and hence reduce the outage losses.
In disaster prevention and emergency support of a power system,the reasonable scheduling of emergency power sources plays an important role in minimizing the outage losses of important customers. The operating condition of a power system is complex and uncertain when power outage occurs. How to properly schedule emergency power sources under multiple uncertain factors has not yet been systematically addressed. Given this background,it is assumed that the traveling time of each emergency power source approximately follows the normal distribution and the outage power of each important customer approximately follows the uniform distribution. An optimal scheduling model of emergency power sources is developed under the well-established chance-constrained programming framework. In the developed optimization model,the objective is formulated as the minimization of the total outage losses of important customers,and the confidence level is adopted to deal with the uncertain parameters. The quantum evolutionary algorithm with the Monte Carlo simulation embedded is employed to solve the optimization model.Case studies show that the proposed scheme can handle multiple uncertain factors in emergency processes,and properly schedule emergency power sources and hence reduce the outage losses.
引文
[1]ZHOU Limei,FAN Mingtian,ZHANG Zuping.Study on the optimal allocation of emergency power supplies for urban important customers[C]∥International Conference on Sustainable Power Generation and Supply(SUPERGEN 2009).Nanjing,China:[s.n.],2009:1-5.
[2]GALUS M D,WARAICH R A,NOEMBRINI F,et al.Integrating power systems,transport systems and vehicle technology for electric mobility impact assessment and efficient control[J].IEEE Transactions on Smart Grid,2012,3(2):938-948.
[3]FAN Mingtian,LIU Sige,ZHANG Zuping.The capability assessment of emergency power supply in urban power network[C]∥The20th International Conference on Electricity Distribution(CIRED2009).Prague,Czech:[s.n.],2009:1-4.
[4]MOHAMMADI S K,HASSANZADEH I,MATHUR R M,et al.A new fuzzy decision-making procedure applied to emergency electric power distribution scheduling[J].Engineering Applications of Artificial Intelligence,2000,13(6):731-740.
[5]王宏,林振智,文福拴,等.计及负荷停电风险的电力应急服务的最优选址[J].电力自动化设备,2013,33(12):73-78.WANG Hong,LIN Zhenzhi,WEN Fushuan,et al.Optimal siting of power emergency service station considering outage risk of loads[J].Electric Power Automation Equipment,2013,33(12):73-78.
[6]梁博淼,王宏,林振智,等.电力系统应急服务多点最优选址规划[J].电力系统自动化,2014,38(18):40-45.LIANG Bomiao,WANG Hong,LIN Zhenzhi,et al.Optimal sitting of power emergency multi-point service provisions[J].Automation of Electric Power Systems,2014,38(18):40-45.
[7]周莉梅,范明天,张祖平.基于重要用户的应急电源优化配置[J].电力系统自动化,2007,31(6):99-102.ZHOU Limei,FAN Mingtian,ZHANG Zuping.Optimal allocation of emergency power supplies for urban important customers[J].Automation of Electric Power Systems,2007,31(6):99-102.
[8]张爱国,郝建刚,唐志芳,等.考虑综合负荷重要性的移动应急电源容量优化分配[J].电网技术,2008,32(2):86-89.ZHANG Aiguo,HAO Jiangang,TANG Zhifang,et al.The allocation scheme of mobile emergency generator considering the loads importance[J].Power System Technology,2008,32(2):86-89.
[9]王宏,林振智,文福拴,等.城市移动应急电源的优化调度[J].电力系统自动化,2014,38(3):123-129.WANG Hong,LIN Zhenzhi,WEN Fushuan,et al.Optimal scheduling of urban mobile emergency power sources[J].Automation of Electric Power Systems,2014,38(3):123-129.
[10]区伟健,房鑫炎,俞国勤,等.考虑时间分级的移动应急电源优化配置模型[J].电力系统及其自动化学报,2015,27(7):60-66.QU Weijian,FANG Xinyan,YU Guoqin,et al.Optimal allocation model of mobile emergency supply considering time classification strategy[J].Proceedings of the CSU-EPSA,2015,27(7):60-66.
[11]倪程捷,房鑫炎,赵文恺,等.基于图论的移动应急电源孤岛划分及最优接入点搜索[J].电力系统自动化,2015,39(6):34-40.NI Chengjie,FANG Xinyan,ZHAO Wenkai,et al.Island partition in grand optimal connection point search of mobile emergency power source based on graph theory[J].Automation of Electric Power Systems,2015,39(6):34-40.
[12]赵明宇,徐石明,高辉,等.基于模糊K-means算法的电动汽车应急供电策略[J].电力系统自动化,2016,40(5):91-95.ZHAO Mingyu,XU Shiming,GAO Hui,et al.Strategy of electric vehicle emergency power supply based on fuzzy K-means algorithm[J].Automation of Electric Power Systems,2016,40(5):91-95.
[13]樊煜坤.考虑道路可靠性的电力应急物资配送路线优化模型[D].北京:华北电力大学,2015.FAN Yukun.The optimized electricity emergency distribution route model regarding road reliability[D].Beijing:North China Electric Power University,2015.
[14]黄裕春,王宏,文福拴.含区间数的电力应急网络最优调度路径的确定[J].电力系统及其自动化学报,2015,27(1):19-25.HUANG Yuchun,WANG Hong,WEN Fushuan.Determining of optimal scheduling path in power emergency support network represented by interval values[J].Proceedings of the CSU-EPSA,2015,27(1):19-25.
[15]杨宁,文福拴.基于机会约束规划的输电系统规划方法研究[J].电力系统自动化,2004,28(14):23-27.YANG Ning,WEN Fushuan.Transmission system expansion planning based on chance constrained programming[J].Automation of Electric Power Systems,2004,28(14):23-27.
[16]任建文,渠卫东.基于机会约束规划的孤岛模式下微电网动态经济调度[J].电力自动化设备,2016,36(3):73-78.REN Jianwen,QU Weidong.Dynamic economic dispatch based on chance-constrained programming for islanded microgrid[J].Electric Power Automation Equipment,2016,36(3):73-78.
[17]WACKER G,BILLINTON R.Customer cost of electric service interruptions[J].Proceedings of the IEEE,1989,77(6):919-930.
[18]周莉梅,范明天.城市电网用户停电损失估算及评价方法研究[J].中国电力,2006,39(7):70-73.ZHOU Limei,FAN Mingtian.Research on customer outage cost assessment and its evaluation method in urban electric power network[J].Electric Power,2006,39(7):70-73.
[19]李蕊,李跃,苏剑,等.配电网重要电力用户停电损失及应急策略[J].电网技术,2011,35(10):170-176.LI Rui,LI Yue,SU Jian,et al.Power supply interruption cost of important power consumers in distribution network and its emergency management[J].Power System Technology,2011,35(10):170-176.
[20]张弘,朱永佳,范磊磊,等.基于马尔科夫修正的中长期电力负荷组合区间预测[J].华东电力,2013,41(1):33-36.ZHANG Hong,ZHU Yongjia,FAN Leilei,et al.Mid-long term load interval forecasting based on Markov modification[J].East China Electric Power,2013,41(1):33-36.
[21]AREZOUMANDI M.Estimation of travel time reliability for freeways using mean and standard deviation of travel time[J].Journal of Transportation Systems Engineering and Information Technology,2011,11(6):74-84.
[22]陈守全,林正炎.随机变量序列函数的几乎处处中心极限定理[J].数学物理学报,2008,28(4):747-756.CHEN Shouquan,LIN Zhengyan.Almost sure central limit theorems for functions of random variables[J].Acta Mathematica Scientia,2008,28(4):747-756.
[23]李鑑,谢金星.分布式配送系统在运输时间正态分布条件下的性能分析[J].控制理论与应用,2003,20(3):464-466.LI Jian,XIE Jinxing.Performance analysis of distributed distribution system under normally-distributed transportation lead-times[J].Control Theory and Applications,2003,20(3):464-466.
[24]牛文娟,李扬,王磊.基于风险评估和机会约束的不确定性可中断负荷优化调度[J].电力自动化设备,2016,36(4):62-67.NIU Wenjuan,LI Yang,WANG Lei.Optimal dispatch of uncertain interruptible loads based on risk assessment and chance constraint[J].Electric Power Automation Equipment,2016,36(4):62-67.
[25]丁明,楚明娟,毕锐,等.基于序贯蒙特卡洛随机生产模拟的风电接纳能力评价方法及应用[J].电力自动化设备,2016,36(9):67-73.DING Ming,CHU Mingjuan,BI Rui,et al.Wind power accommodation capability evaluation based on sequential Monte Carlo probabilistic production simulation and its application[J].Electric Power Automation Equipment,2016,36(9):67-73.
[26]吴义纯,丁明.基于蒙特卡罗仿真的风力发电系统可靠性评价[J].电力自动化设备,2004,24(12):70-73.WU Yichun,DING Ming.Reliability assessment of wind power generation system based on Monte-Carlo simulation[J].Electric Power Automation Equipment,2004,24(12):70-73.
[27]HAN K H,KIM J H.Quantum-inspired evolutionary algorithm for a class of combinatorial optimization[J].IEEE Transactions on Evolutionary Computation,2002,6(6):580-593.
[28]高辉,徐光辉,张锐,等.实数编码量子进化算法[J].控制与决策,2008,23(1):87-90.GAO Hui,XU Guanghui,ZHANG Rui,et al.Real-coded quantum evolutionary algorithm[J].Control and Decision,2008,23(1):87-90.
[2]GALUS M D,WARAICH R A,NOEMBRINI F,et al.Integrating power systems,transport systems and vehicle technology for electric mobility impact assessment and efficient control[J].IEEE Transactions on Smart Grid,2012,3(2):938-948.
[3]FAN Mingtian,LIU Sige,ZHANG Zuping.The capability assessment of emergency power supply in urban power network[C]∥The20th International Conference on Electricity Distribution(CIRED2009).Prague,Czech:[s.n.],2009:1-4.
[4]MOHAMMADI S K,HASSANZADEH I,MATHUR R M,et al.A new fuzzy decision-making procedure applied to emergency electric power distribution scheduling[J].Engineering Applications of Artificial Intelligence,2000,13(6):731-740.
[5]王宏,林振智,文福拴,等.计及负荷停电风险的电力应急服务的最优选址[J].电力自动化设备,2013,33(12):73-78.WANG Hong,LIN Zhenzhi,WEN Fushuan,et al.Optimal siting of power emergency service station considering outage risk of loads[J].Electric Power Automation Equipment,2013,33(12):73-78.
[6]梁博淼,王宏,林振智,等.电力系统应急服务多点最优选址规划[J].电力系统自动化,2014,38(18):40-45.LIANG Bomiao,WANG Hong,LIN Zhenzhi,et al.Optimal sitting of power emergency multi-point service provisions[J].Automation of Electric Power Systems,2014,38(18):40-45.
[7]周莉梅,范明天,张祖平.基于重要用户的应急电源优化配置[J].电力系统自动化,2007,31(6):99-102.ZHOU Limei,FAN Mingtian,ZHANG Zuping.Optimal allocation of emergency power supplies for urban important customers[J].Automation of Electric Power Systems,2007,31(6):99-102.
[8]张爱国,郝建刚,唐志芳,等.考虑综合负荷重要性的移动应急电源容量优化分配[J].电网技术,2008,32(2):86-89.ZHANG Aiguo,HAO Jiangang,TANG Zhifang,et al.The allocation scheme of mobile emergency generator considering the loads importance[J].Power System Technology,2008,32(2):86-89.
[9]王宏,林振智,文福拴,等.城市移动应急电源的优化调度[J].电力系统自动化,2014,38(3):123-129.WANG Hong,LIN Zhenzhi,WEN Fushuan,et al.Optimal scheduling of urban mobile emergency power sources[J].Automation of Electric Power Systems,2014,38(3):123-129.
[10]区伟健,房鑫炎,俞国勤,等.考虑时间分级的移动应急电源优化配置模型[J].电力系统及其自动化学报,2015,27(7):60-66.QU Weijian,FANG Xinyan,YU Guoqin,et al.Optimal allocation model of mobile emergency supply considering time classification strategy[J].Proceedings of the CSU-EPSA,2015,27(7):60-66.
[11]倪程捷,房鑫炎,赵文恺,等.基于图论的移动应急电源孤岛划分及最优接入点搜索[J].电力系统自动化,2015,39(6):34-40.NI Chengjie,FANG Xinyan,ZHAO Wenkai,et al.Island partition in grand optimal connection point search of mobile emergency power source based on graph theory[J].Automation of Electric Power Systems,2015,39(6):34-40.
[12]赵明宇,徐石明,高辉,等.基于模糊K-means算法的电动汽车应急供电策略[J].电力系统自动化,2016,40(5):91-95.ZHAO Mingyu,XU Shiming,GAO Hui,et al.Strategy of electric vehicle emergency power supply based on fuzzy K-means algorithm[J].Automation of Electric Power Systems,2016,40(5):91-95.
[13]樊煜坤.考虑道路可靠性的电力应急物资配送路线优化模型[D].北京:华北电力大学,2015.FAN Yukun.The optimized electricity emergency distribution route model regarding road reliability[D].Beijing:North China Electric Power University,2015.
[14]黄裕春,王宏,文福拴.含区间数的电力应急网络最优调度路径的确定[J].电力系统及其自动化学报,2015,27(1):19-25.HUANG Yuchun,WANG Hong,WEN Fushuan.Determining of optimal scheduling path in power emergency support network represented by interval values[J].Proceedings of the CSU-EPSA,2015,27(1):19-25.
[15]杨宁,文福拴.基于机会约束规划的输电系统规划方法研究[J].电力系统自动化,2004,28(14):23-27.YANG Ning,WEN Fushuan.Transmission system expansion planning based on chance constrained programming[J].Automation of Electric Power Systems,2004,28(14):23-27.
[16]任建文,渠卫东.基于机会约束规划的孤岛模式下微电网动态经济调度[J].电力自动化设备,2016,36(3):73-78.REN Jianwen,QU Weidong.Dynamic economic dispatch based on chance-constrained programming for islanded microgrid[J].Electric Power Automation Equipment,2016,36(3):73-78.
[17]WACKER G,BILLINTON R.Customer cost of electric service interruptions[J].Proceedings of the IEEE,1989,77(6):919-930.
[18]周莉梅,范明天.城市电网用户停电损失估算及评价方法研究[J].中国电力,2006,39(7):70-73.ZHOU Limei,FAN Mingtian.Research on customer outage cost assessment and its evaluation method in urban electric power network[J].Electric Power,2006,39(7):70-73.
[19]李蕊,李跃,苏剑,等.配电网重要电力用户停电损失及应急策略[J].电网技术,2011,35(10):170-176.LI Rui,LI Yue,SU Jian,et al.Power supply interruption cost of important power consumers in distribution network and its emergency management[J].Power System Technology,2011,35(10):170-176.
[20]张弘,朱永佳,范磊磊,等.基于马尔科夫修正的中长期电力负荷组合区间预测[J].华东电力,2013,41(1):33-36.ZHANG Hong,ZHU Yongjia,FAN Leilei,et al.Mid-long term load interval forecasting based on Markov modification[J].East China Electric Power,2013,41(1):33-36.
[21]AREZOUMANDI M.Estimation of travel time reliability for freeways using mean and standard deviation of travel time[J].Journal of Transportation Systems Engineering and Information Technology,2011,11(6):74-84.
[22]陈守全,林正炎.随机变量序列函数的几乎处处中心极限定理[J].数学物理学报,2008,28(4):747-756.CHEN Shouquan,LIN Zhengyan.Almost sure central limit theorems for functions of random variables[J].Acta Mathematica Scientia,2008,28(4):747-756.
[23]李鑑,谢金星.分布式配送系统在运输时间正态分布条件下的性能分析[J].控制理论与应用,2003,20(3):464-466.LI Jian,XIE Jinxing.Performance analysis of distributed distribution system under normally-distributed transportation lead-times[J].Control Theory and Applications,2003,20(3):464-466.
[24]牛文娟,李扬,王磊.基于风险评估和机会约束的不确定性可中断负荷优化调度[J].电力自动化设备,2016,36(4):62-67.NIU Wenjuan,LI Yang,WANG Lei.Optimal dispatch of uncertain interruptible loads based on risk assessment and chance constraint[J].Electric Power Automation Equipment,2016,36(4):62-67.
[25]丁明,楚明娟,毕锐,等.基于序贯蒙特卡洛随机生产模拟的风电接纳能力评价方法及应用[J].电力自动化设备,2016,36(9):67-73.DING Ming,CHU Mingjuan,BI Rui,et al.Wind power accommodation capability evaluation based on sequential Monte Carlo probabilistic production simulation and its application[J].Electric Power Automation Equipment,2016,36(9):67-73.
[26]吴义纯,丁明.基于蒙特卡罗仿真的风力发电系统可靠性评价[J].电力自动化设备,2004,24(12):70-73.WU Yichun,DING Ming.Reliability assessment of wind power generation system based on Monte-Carlo simulation[J].Electric Power Automation Equipment,2004,24(12):70-73.
[27]HAN K H,KIM J H.Quantum-inspired evolutionary algorithm for a class of combinatorial optimization[J].IEEE Transactions on Evolutionary Computation,2002,6(6):580-593.
[28]高辉,徐光辉,张锐,等.实数编码量子进化算法[J].控制与决策,2008,23(1):87-90.GAO Hui,XU Guanghui,ZHANG Rui,et al.Real-coded quantum evolutionary algorithm[J].Control and Decision,2008,23(1):87-90.