多重不确定因素影响的高端装备研制任务仿真建模
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摘要
针对高端装备研制任务影响因素多、不确定性大、网络结构复杂等特点,采用蒙特卡罗仿真方法模拟其执行过程,用以估算研制任务的工期、成本、返工次数、失败率等。综合考虑子任务的工期和成本的不确定性、子任务之间的各种关系以及执行过程中的自环、返工迭代、重叠、失败、学习效应等,改进资源冲突处理规则,基于设计结构矩阵建立仿真模型,并实现了仿真算法。以某无人机研制任务为例进行应用研究,对仿真输出的工期、成本、返工次数、失败率等数据进行分析,并与相关文献中的数据进行比较。
The development task of high-end equipment has many characteristics,for example,the number of influencing factors is huge,the uncertainty is great and the network structure is complex.In order to deal with this problem,a Monte Carlo simulation method is used to simulate the execution process of the task network.It can estimate the duration,cost,rework times,and failure rate.Considering the uncertainty of the duration and the cost of subtasks,the relationship between the subtasks and the self-loop,rework iteration,overlap,failure and learning effect in the implementation process,our method improves the rules of resource conflicts.Based on the design structure matrix,the simulation model is established.After that a simulation algorithm is implemented.The data of the development task of an uninhabited combat aerial vehicle is studied.Then this paper analyzes the data such as the duration,cost,rework times,and failure rate of the simulation output.Finally,the data is compared with the data in the related literature,which shows that our method works well in this case.
The development task of high-end equipment has many characteristics,for example,the number of influencing factors is huge,the uncertainty is great and the network structure is complex.In order to deal with this problem,a Monte Carlo simulation method is used to simulate the execution process of the task network.It can estimate the duration,cost,rework times,and failure rate.Considering the uncertainty of the duration and the cost of subtasks,the relationship between the subtasks and the self-loop,rework iteration,overlap,failure and learning effect in the implementation process,our method improves the rules of resource conflicts.Based on the design structure matrix,the simulation model is established.After that a simulation algorithm is implemented.The data of the development task of an uninhabited combat aerial vehicle is studied.Then this paper analyzes the data such as the duration,cost,rework times,and failure rate of the simulation output.Finally,the data is compared with the data in the related literature,which shows that our method works well in this case.
引文
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[12]LIN J,CHAI K H,WONG Y S,et al.A dynamic model for managing overlapped iterative product development[J].European Journal of Operational Research,2008,185(1):378-392.
[13]LIN J,CHAI K H,BROMBACHER A C,et al.Optimal overlapping and functional interaction in product development[J].European Journal of Operational Research,2009,196(3):1158-1169.
[14]LIN J,QIAN Y,CUI W,et al.Overlapping and communication policies in product development[J].European Journal of Operational Research,2010,201(3):737-750.
[15]YANG Q,YAO T,LU T,et al.An overlapping-based design structure matrix for measuring interaction strength and clustering analysis in product development project[J].IEEE Trans.on Engineering Management,2014,61(1):159-170.
[16]ZHANG D,BHUIYAN N.A study of the evolution of uncertainty in product development as a basis for overlapping[J].IEEE Trans.on Engineering Management,2015,62(1):39-50.
[17]WYNN D C,ECKERT C M.Perspectives on iteration in design and development[J].Research in Engineering Design,2017,28(2):153-184.
[18]MEIER C,BROWNING T R,YASSINE A A,et al.The cost of speed:work policies for crashing and overlapping in product development projects[J].IEEE Trans.on Engineering Management,2015,62(2):237-255.
[19]NASR W,YASSINE A,KASM O A.An analytical approach to estimate the expected duration and variance for iterative product development projects[J].Research in Engineering Design,2016,27(1):55-71.
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[21]杨青,吕杰峰.基于DSM返工风险评价矩阵的项目优化与仿真[J].系统工程理论与实践,2010,30(9):1665-1671.YANG Q,LUJ F.Project optimization and simulation basedon DSM rework risk evaluation matrix[J].Systems EngineeringTheory&Practice,2010,30(9):1665-1671.
[22]COOK I,COATES G.Optimising the time-based design structure matrix using a divide and hybridise algorithm[J].Journal of Engineering Design,2016,27(4/6):306-332.
[23]李洪波,徐哲.考虑活动随机重叠和资源冲突的复杂产品开发流程仿真建模[J].系统工程与电子技术,2012,34(7):1412-1418.LI H B,XU Z.Simulation modeling of complex product development process considering stochastic activities overlap and resource conflict[J].Systems Engineering and Electronics,2012,34(7):1412-1418.
[24]ZHANG J,XU Z,LI Y,et al.Framework for the integration of assembly modeling and simulation based on assembly feature pair[J].International Journal of Advanced Manufacturing Technology,2015,78(5/8):765-780.
[25]LUO J.A simulation-based method to evaluate the impact of product architecture on product evolvability[J].Research in Engineering Design,2015,26(4):355-371.
[26]COLLINS S T,YASSINE A A,BORGATTI S P.Evaluating product development systems using network analysis[J].Systems Engineering,2009,12(1):55-68.
[27]KARNIEL A,REICH Y.Multi-level modelling and simulation of new product development processes[J].Journal of Engineering Design,2013,24(3):185-210.
[28]MAIER J F,WYNN D C,BIEDERMANN W,et al.Simulating progressive iteration,rework and change propagation to prioritise design tasks[J].Research in Engineering Design,2014,25(4):283-307.
[29]CHO S H,EPPINGER S D.A simulation-based process model for managing complex design projects[J].IEEE Trans.on Engineering Management,2005,52(3):316-328.
[30]ABDELSALAM H M,RASMY M H,MOHAMED H G.A simulation-based time reduction approach for resource constrained design structure matrix[J].International Journal of Modeling&Optimization,2014,4(1):51-55.
[2]王涛,蔡建峰.航空复杂产品项目活动时间混合分布估算模型的改进[J].运筹与管理,2012,21(4):214-219.WANG T,CAI J F.Improved mixture densities for the activity time estimation in aviation complex product project[J].Operations Research and Management Science,2012,21(4):214-219.
[3]WU Y,PAN X,KANG R,et al.Multi-parameters uncertainty analysis of logistic support process based on GERT[J].Journal of Systems Engineering and Electronics,2014,25(6):1011-1019.
[4]NELSON R G,AZARON A,AREF S.The use of a GERT based method to model concurrent product development processes[J].European Journal of Operational Research,2016,250(2):566-578.
[5]刘红旗,方志耕,陶良彦.复杂装备研制项目进度规划GERT网络“反问题”模型[J].系统工程与电子技术,2015,37(12):2758-2763.LIU H Q,FANG Z G,TAO Y L.Complex equipment development project planning GERT network“inverse problem”model[J].Systems Engineering and Electronics,2015,37(12):2758-2763.
[6]陶良彦,刘思峰,方志耕,等.基于多层次GERT的复杂产品研制进度规划“超冲突均衡”博弈模型[J].控制与决策,2014,29(11):2002-2010.TAO Y L,LIU S F,FANG Z G,et al.“Super-conflict equalization”game model for complex product development scheduling based on multi-level GERT[J].Control and Decision,2014,29(11):2002-2010.
[7]STEWARD D V.The design structure system:a method for managing the design of complex systems[J].IEEE Trans.on Engineering Management,1981,28(3):71-74.
[8]FANG C,MARLE F.Dealing with project complexity by matrix-based propagation modelling for project risk analysis[J].Journal of Engineering Design,2013,24(4):239-256.
[9]BROWNING T R.Applying the design structure matrix to system decomposition and integration problems:a review and new directions[J].IEEE Trans.on Engineering Management,2001,48(3):292-306.
[10]BROWNING T R.Design structure matrix extensions and innovations:a survey and new opportunities[J].IEEE Trans.on Engineering Management,2016,63(1):27-52.
[11]BROWNING T R,EPPINGER S D.Modeling impacts of process architecture on cost and schedule risk in product development[J].IEEE Trans.on Engineering Management,2002,49(4):428-443.
[12]LIN J,CHAI K H,WONG Y S,et al.A dynamic model for managing overlapped iterative product development[J].European Journal of Operational Research,2008,185(1):378-392.
[13]LIN J,CHAI K H,BROMBACHER A C,et al.Optimal overlapping and functional interaction in product development[J].European Journal of Operational Research,2009,196(3):1158-1169.
[14]LIN J,QIAN Y,CUI W,et al.Overlapping and communication policies in product development[J].European Journal of Operational Research,2010,201(3):737-750.
[15]YANG Q,YAO T,LU T,et al.An overlapping-based design structure matrix for measuring interaction strength and clustering analysis in product development project[J].IEEE Trans.on Engineering Management,2014,61(1):159-170.
[16]ZHANG D,BHUIYAN N.A study of the evolution of uncertainty in product development as a basis for overlapping[J].IEEE Trans.on Engineering Management,2015,62(1):39-50.
[17]WYNN D C,ECKERT C M.Perspectives on iteration in design and development[J].Research in Engineering Design,2017,28(2):153-184.
[18]MEIER C,BROWNING T R,YASSINE A A,et al.The cost of speed:work policies for crashing and overlapping in product development projects[J].IEEE Trans.on Engineering Management,2015,62(2):237-255.
[19]NASR W,YASSINE A,KASM O A.An analytical approach to estimate the expected duration and variance for iterative product development projects[J].Research in Engineering Design,2016,27(1):55-71.
[20]REBENTISCH E,SCHUH G,RIESENER M,et al.Assessment of changes in technical systems and their effects on cost and duration based on structural complexity[J].Procedia Cirp,2016,55:35-40.
[21]杨青,吕杰峰.基于DSM返工风险评价矩阵的项目优化与仿真[J].系统工程理论与实践,2010,30(9):1665-1671.YANG Q,LUJ F.Project optimization and simulation basedon DSM rework risk evaluation matrix[J].Systems EngineeringTheory&Practice,2010,30(9):1665-1671.
[22]COOK I,COATES G.Optimising the time-based design structure matrix using a divide and hybridise algorithm[J].Journal of Engineering Design,2016,27(4/6):306-332.
[23]李洪波,徐哲.考虑活动随机重叠和资源冲突的复杂产品开发流程仿真建模[J].系统工程与电子技术,2012,34(7):1412-1418.LI H B,XU Z.Simulation modeling of complex product development process considering stochastic activities overlap and resource conflict[J].Systems Engineering and Electronics,2012,34(7):1412-1418.
[24]ZHANG J,XU Z,LI Y,et al.Framework for the integration of assembly modeling and simulation based on assembly feature pair[J].International Journal of Advanced Manufacturing Technology,2015,78(5/8):765-780.
[25]LUO J.A simulation-based method to evaluate the impact of product architecture on product evolvability[J].Research in Engineering Design,2015,26(4):355-371.
[26]COLLINS S T,YASSINE A A,BORGATTI S P.Evaluating product development systems using network analysis[J].Systems Engineering,2009,12(1):55-68.
[27]KARNIEL A,REICH Y.Multi-level modelling and simulation of new product development processes[J].Journal of Engineering Design,2013,24(3):185-210.
[28]MAIER J F,WYNN D C,BIEDERMANN W,et al.Simulating progressive iteration,rework and change propagation to prioritise design tasks[J].Research in Engineering Design,2014,25(4):283-307.
[29]CHO S H,EPPINGER S D.A simulation-based process model for managing complex design projects[J].IEEE Trans.on Engineering Management,2005,52(3):316-328.
[30]ABDELSALAM H M,RASMY M H,MOHAMED H G.A simulation-based time reduction approach for resource constrained design structure matrix[J].International Journal of Modeling&Optimization,2014,4(1):51-55.