北京市雾霾污染健康损失评估:历史变化与现状
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摘要
雾霾污染对居民健康的危害早已成为国家、社会和公众最为关注的公共话题。作者以北京市为例,基于2009～2016年大气污染浓度、病理学及健康统计学等数据,定量化评估了北京市各区雾霾污染的健康经济损失现状及历史变化状况。结果表明:2016年北京市雾霾污染造成的经济损失约为679.25亿元;朝阳区、海淀区、丰台区健康损失最为严重,而延庆区、门头沟区、怀柔区的健康损失相对较低,这主要是污染物排放、地区人口、地理位置等差异造成的。从时间趋势来看,2009～2016年北京市各区大气污染健康损失均呈现先波动式上升后逐年下降态势;但2016年北京市大气污染健康损失至少是2009年的1.1倍,大气污染情况仍不容乐观。因此,亟须因地制宜治理北京市各区雾霾污染,逐步推进大气污染健康损失纳入自然资源资产负债表核算体系。
The health damage caused by haze pollution has caused great concerns at all levels from the general public to national governments and international agencies. Therefore,this paper evaluates the economic loss of health effects caused by the haze pollution in Beijing with the air quality data from 2009 to 2016,epidemiological data and healthy statistical data. We find that Beijing experienced a staggering loss of about 67. 925 million RMB Yuan due to haze pollution in 2016. In particular,Chaoyang,Haidian,and Fengtai districts bore the biggest economic loss. In comparison,Yanqing,Mentougou,and Huairou districts had the lower economic loss. This could be explained by the pollutant level,demographic and geographical differences among these regions. From 2009 to 2016,economic loss of haze-pollution-related health effects showed a fluctuating rise and then a year-by-year decline for every district in Beijing. However,the healthy loss in 2016 was over 1. 1 times higher than that for 2009,which implies the severe situation of air pollution in Beijing.Therefore,public policies in each district should be made for controlling haze pollution according to its location condition,and the economic assessment of air-pollution-related health damages should be introduced into the natural resources balance sheet in Beijing.
The health damage caused by haze pollution has caused great concerns at all levels from the general public to national governments and international agencies. Therefore,this paper evaluates the economic loss of health effects caused by the haze pollution in Beijing with the air quality data from 2009 to 2016,epidemiological data and healthy statistical data. We find that Beijing experienced a staggering loss of about 67. 925 million RMB Yuan due to haze pollution in 2016. In particular,Chaoyang,Haidian,and Fengtai districts bore the biggest economic loss. In comparison,Yanqing,Mentougou,and Huairou districts had the lower economic loss. This could be explained by the pollutant level,demographic and geographical differences among these regions. From 2009 to 2016,economic loss of haze-pollution-related health effects showed a fluctuating rise and then a year-by-year decline for every district in Beijing. However,the healthy loss in 2016 was over 1. 1 times higher than that for 2009,which implies the severe situation of air pollution in Beijing.Therefore,public policies in each district should be made for controlling haze pollution according to its location condition,and the economic assessment of air-pollution-related health damages should be introduced into the natural resources balance sheet in Beijing.
引文
陈素梅、何凌云(2017):《环境、健康与经济增长:最优能源税收入分配研究》,《经济研究》第4期,第120~134页。
陈元华、李山梅(2011):《北京市大气环保措施的健康效益研究》,《中国人口·资源与环境》第12期,第429~432页。
阚海东、陈秉衡(2002):《我国大气颗粒物暴露与人群健康效应的关系》,《环境与健康杂志》第6期,第422~424页。
马丽梅、张晓(2014):《中国雾霾污染的空间效应及经济、能源结构影响》,《中国工业经济》第4期,第19~31页。
苗艳青、陈文晶(2010):《空气污染和健康需求:Grossman模型的应用》,《世界经济》第6期,第140~160页。
王德文(2007):《人口低生育率阶段的劳动力供求变化与中国经济增长》,《中国人口科学》第1期,第44~52页。
夏光、赵毅红(1995):《中国环境污染损失的经济计量与研究》,《管理世界》第6期,第198~205页。
谢杨、戴瀚程、花岡達也等(2016):《PM2.5污染对京津冀地区人群健康影响和经济影响》,《中国人口·资源与环境》第11期,第19~27页。
谢元博、陈娟、李巍(2014):《雾霾重污染期间北京居民对高浓度PM2.5持续暴露的健康风险及其损害价值评估》,《环境科学》第1期,第1~8页。
杨丹辉、李红莉(2010):《基于损害和成本的环境污染损失核算---以山东省为例》,《中国工业经济》第7期,第125~135页。
赵晓丽、范春阳、王予希(2014):《基于修正人力资本法的北京市空气污染物健康损失评价》,《中国人口·资源与环境》第3期,第169~176页。
Bell,M.and H.Ellis(2004).“Sensitivity Analysis of Tropospheric Ozone to Modified Biogenic Emissions for the Mid-atlantic Region”,Atmospheric Environment,38(13),pp.1879-1889.
Bell,M.L.,K.Ebisu and R.D.Peng,et al.(2008),“Seasonal and Regional Short-term Effects of Fine Particles on Hospital Admissions in 202 US Counties,1999-2005”,American Journal of Epidemiology,168(11),pp.1301-1310.
Bickel,P.and R.Friedrich(2005),Extern:Externalities of Energy,Methodology 2005 Update,Germany:European Commission,Luxembourg.
Chen,S.M.and L.Y.He(2014),“Welfare Loss of China's Air Pollution:How to Make Personal Vehicle Transportation Policy”,China Economic Review,31,pp.106-118.
Chen,Y.Y.,A.Ebenstein and M.Greeenstone,et al.(2013),“Evidence on the Impact of Sustained Exposure to Air Pollution on Life Expectancy from China's Huai River Policy”,PNAS,110(32),pp.12936-12941.
Hammitt,J.K.and Y.Zhou(2006),“The Economic Value of Air Pollution Related Health Risks in China:A Contingent Valuation Study”,Environmental and Resource Economics,33(3),pp.399-423.
Kan,H.D.and B.H.Chen(2004),“Particulate Air Pollution in Urban Areas of Shanghai,China:Health-Based Economic Assessment”,Science of the Total Environment,332(1),pp.71-79.
Ko,F.,W.Tam and T.W.Wong,et al.(2007),“Effects of Air Pollution on Asthma Hospitalization Rates in Different Age Groups in Hong Kong”,Clinical&Experimental Allergy,37(9),pp.1312-1319.
Matus,K.,K.M.Nam and N.E.Selin,et al.(2012),“Health Damages from Air Pollution in China”,Global Environmental Change,22(1),pp.55-66.
Quah,E.and T.L.Boon(2003),“The Economic Cost of Particulate Air Pollution on Health in Singapore”,Journal of Asian Economics,14(1),pp.73-90.
Wang,X.P.and D.L.Mauzerall(2006),“Evaluating Impacts of Air Pollution in China on Public Health:Implications for Future Air Pollution and Energy Policies”,Atmospheric Environment,40(9),pp.1706-1721.
World Health Organization(2006),WHO Air Quality Guidelines for Particulate Matter,Ozone,Nitrogen Dioxide and Sulfur Dioxide:Global Update 2005,Geneva:World Health Organization.
Xie,P.,Y.X.Liu and Z.R.Liu,et al.(2011),“Human Health Impact of Exposure to Airborne Particulate Matter in Pearl River Delta,China”,Water,Air,&Soil Pollution,25(1-4),pp.349-363.
Zhang,M.,Y.Song and X.H.Cai,et al.(2008),“Economic Assessment of the Health Effects Related to Particulate Matter Pollution in 111 Cities by Using Economic Burden of Disease Analysis”,Journal of Environmental Management,88(4),pp.947-954.
(1)持续笼罩中国大部分地区的雾霾,主要元凶是PM2.5,因其直径过小易吸入人体肺部,危害性极高。据Xie等(2011)统计发现,PM2.5浓度每增加10微克/立方米,居民年均死亡率将增长0.42%。
(2)资料来源:《描绘健康中国的美好蓝图——习近平总书记在全国卫生与健康大会上的讲话引起热烈反响》,新华网,http://news.xinhuanet.com/politics/2016-08/21/c_129244493.htm[2018-03-01]。
(1)由于北京市2008年各区县空气质量数据难以获取,故本文选取了2009~2016年空气质量数据集进行研究分析。此外,赵晓丽等(2014)将近十五年北京市空气污染排放情况划分为三个阶段,其中,1994~1998年污染排放呈现先下降后上升的趋势;1998~2008年空气污染呈下降趋势;2009年以来,空气污染呈现平稳趋势。而本文正是选取了北京市污染排放平稳阶段作为研究对象,以更有针对性地评估北京市近年来雾霾污染及健康损失情况。
(1)PM10-2.5指直径在2.5~10微米范围的颗粒物,PM10是直径小于10微米的颗粒物,PM2.5是直径小于2 .5微米的颗粒物。为避免重复计算,本文选取了PM10-2.5而非PM10。
(2)资料来源:《人口与就业年度统计资料发布计划》,http://www.bjstats.gov.cn/tjsj/ndtjzl/rkyjy/201701/t20170119_367265.html[2018-02-25]。
(1)资料来源:《北京市PM2.5来源解析》,http://dqhj.mep.gov.cn/dqhjzl/dqklwyjx/201709/t20170915_421691.shtml[2018-02-25]。
(1)如陈素梅和何凌云(2017)理论研究发现,环境污染对公众健康劳动生产率的影响是不容忽视的,考虑与否直接决定着最优能源税收入分配方式。
(2)评估过程中使用的参数(如暴露-反应系数、健康损失单位成本等)的不确定性会影响到北京市雾霾污染健康损失的绝对值,为此,本文做了敏感性检验,研究发现这些参数本身的不确定性对各个年份评估的影响是一致的,因此对北京市雾霾污染健康损失的时间变化趋势不会产生影响。由于本文重在通过评估北京市大气污染健康损失及其历史变化趋势来阐释大气污染健康损失评估的重要性,健康经济损失绝对值的变化并不会影响本文主要结论。
陈元华、李山梅(2011):《北京市大气环保措施的健康效益研究》,《中国人口·资源与环境》第12期,第429~432页。
阚海东、陈秉衡(2002):《我国大气颗粒物暴露与人群健康效应的关系》,《环境与健康杂志》第6期,第422~424页。
马丽梅、张晓(2014):《中国雾霾污染的空间效应及经济、能源结构影响》,《中国工业经济》第4期,第19~31页。
苗艳青、陈文晶(2010):《空气污染和健康需求:Grossman模型的应用》,《世界经济》第6期,第140~160页。
王德文(2007):《人口低生育率阶段的劳动力供求变化与中国经济增长》,《中国人口科学》第1期,第44~52页。
夏光、赵毅红(1995):《中国环境污染损失的经济计量与研究》,《管理世界》第6期,第198~205页。
谢杨、戴瀚程、花岡達也等(2016):《PM2.5污染对京津冀地区人群健康影响和经济影响》,《中国人口·资源与环境》第11期,第19~27页。
谢元博、陈娟、李巍(2014):《雾霾重污染期间北京居民对高浓度PM2.5持续暴露的健康风险及其损害价值评估》,《环境科学》第1期,第1~8页。
杨丹辉、李红莉(2010):《基于损害和成本的环境污染损失核算---以山东省为例》,《中国工业经济》第7期,第125~135页。
赵晓丽、范春阳、王予希(2014):《基于修正人力资本法的北京市空气污染物健康损失评价》,《中国人口·资源与环境》第3期,第169~176页。
Bell,M.and H.Ellis(2004).“Sensitivity Analysis of Tropospheric Ozone to Modified Biogenic Emissions for the Mid-atlantic Region”,Atmospheric Environment,38(13),pp.1879-1889.
Bell,M.L.,K.Ebisu and R.D.Peng,et al.(2008),“Seasonal and Regional Short-term Effects of Fine Particles on Hospital Admissions in 202 US Counties,1999-2005”,American Journal of Epidemiology,168(11),pp.1301-1310.
Bickel,P.and R.Friedrich(2005),Extern:Externalities of Energy,Methodology 2005 Update,Germany:European Commission,Luxembourg.
Chen,S.M.and L.Y.He(2014),“Welfare Loss of China's Air Pollution:How to Make Personal Vehicle Transportation Policy”,China Economic Review,31,pp.106-118.
Chen,Y.Y.,A.Ebenstein and M.Greeenstone,et al.(2013),“Evidence on the Impact of Sustained Exposure to Air Pollution on Life Expectancy from China's Huai River Policy”,PNAS,110(32),pp.12936-12941.
Hammitt,J.K.and Y.Zhou(2006),“The Economic Value of Air Pollution Related Health Risks in China:A Contingent Valuation Study”,Environmental and Resource Economics,33(3),pp.399-423.
Kan,H.D.and B.H.Chen(2004),“Particulate Air Pollution in Urban Areas of Shanghai,China:Health-Based Economic Assessment”,Science of the Total Environment,332(1),pp.71-79.
Ko,F.,W.Tam and T.W.Wong,et al.(2007),“Effects of Air Pollution on Asthma Hospitalization Rates in Different Age Groups in Hong Kong”,Clinical&Experimental Allergy,37(9),pp.1312-1319.
Matus,K.,K.M.Nam and N.E.Selin,et al.(2012),“Health Damages from Air Pollution in China”,Global Environmental Change,22(1),pp.55-66.
Quah,E.and T.L.Boon(2003),“The Economic Cost of Particulate Air Pollution on Health in Singapore”,Journal of Asian Economics,14(1),pp.73-90.
Wang,X.P.and D.L.Mauzerall(2006),“Evaluating Impacts of Air Pollution in China on Public Health:Implications for Future Air Pollution and Energy Policies”,Atmospheric Environment,40(9),pp.1706-1721.
World Health Organization(2006),WHO Air Quality Guidelines for Particulate Matter,Ozone,Nitrogen Dioxide and Sulfur Dioxide:Global Update 2005,Geneva:World Health Organization.
Xie,P.,Y.X.Liu and Z.R.Liu,et al.(2011),“Human Health Impact of Exposure to Airborne Particulate Matter in Pearl River Delta,China”,Water,Air,&Soil Pollution,25(1-4),pp.349-363.
Zhang,M.,Y.Song and X.H.Cai,et al.(2008),“Economic Assessment of the Health Effects Related to Particulate Matter Pollution in 111 Cities by Using Economic Burden of Disease Analysis”,Journal of Environmental Management,88(4),pp.947-954.
(1)持续笼罩中国大部分地区的雾霾,主要元凶是PM2.5,因其直径过小易吸入人体肺部,危害性极高。据Xie等(2011)统计发现,PM2.5浓度每增加10微克/立方米,居民年均死亡率将增长0.42%。
(2)资料来源:《描绘健康中国的美好蓝图——习近平总书记在全国卫生与健康大会上的讲话引起热烈反响》,新华网,http://news.xinhuanet.com/politics/2016-08/21/c_129244493.htm[2018-03-01]。
(1)由于北京市2008年各区县空气质量数据难以获取,故本文选取了2009~2016年空气质量数据集进行研究分析。此外,赵晓丽等(2014)将近十五年北京市空气污染排放情况划分为三个阶段,其中,1994~1998年污染排放呈现先下降后上升的趋势;1998~2008年空气污染呈下降趋势;2009年以来,空气污染呈现平稳趋势。而本文正是选取了北京市污染排放平稳阶段作为研究对象,以更有针对性地评估北京市近年来雾霾污染及健康损失情况。
(1)PM10-2.5指直径在2.5~10微米范围的颗粒物,PM10是直径小于10微米的颗粒物,PM2.5是直径小于2 .5微米的颗粒物。为避免重复计算,本文选取了PM10-2.5而非PM10。
(2)资料来源:《人口与就业年度统计资料发布计划》,http://www.bjstats.gov.cn/tjsj/ndtjzl/rkyjy/201701/t20170119_367265.html[2018-02-25]。
(1)资料来源:《北京市PM2.5来源解析》,http://dqhj.mep.gov.cn/dqhjzl/dqklwyjx/201709/t20170915_421691.shtml[2018-02-25]。
(1)如陈素梅和何凌云(2017)理论研究发现,环境污染对公众健康劳动生产率的影响是不容忽视的,考虑与否直接决定着最优能源税收入分配方式。
(2)评估过程中使用的参数(如暴露-反应系数、健康损失单位成本等)的不确定性会影响到北京市雾霾污染健康损失的绝对值,为此,本文做了敏感性检验,研究发现这些参数本身的不确定性对各个年份评估的影响是一致的,因此对北京市雾霾污染健康损失的时间变化趋势不会产生影响。由于本文重在通过评估北京市大气污染健康损失及其历史变化趋势来阐释大气污染健康损失评估的重要性,健康经济损失绝对值的变化并不会影响本文主要结论。