基于环境学习曲线的工业大气污染物排放强度下降潜力测算
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摘要
工业大气污染物排放强度下降潜力是大气污染物减排规划制定的基础。在环境学习曲线的基础上,借助于异质性随机前沿分析的方法,构建了包含干中学、研发中学和引进中学等因素的大气污染物排放强度下降潜力模型及测算指标。研究结果表明:我国工业大气污染物排放强度存在26. 5%至33. 5%的下降空间;东北地区和东部的工业大气污染物排放强度下降潜力最大,其次是西部地区和中部地区;海南、吉林、江西等是我国工业大气污染物排放强度下降潜力最大的地区;干中学、研发中学及引进中学均对工业大气污染物减排起到了积极的作用。
The reduction potential of industrial air pollutants intensity is the basis for formulating air pollutant emission reduction plan. This paper build a model to measure the reduction potential of industrial air pollutants intensity based on heterogeneous stochastic frontier analysis method and thetheory of environmental learning curves that include factors such as learning-by-doing,learning-by-researching andlearning-by-importing. The results show thatChina's industrial air pollutants intensity has a reduction potential of 26. 5% to 33. 5%. The rank of different regions for reduction potential of industrial air pollutants intensity from large to small is the northeast region,the eastern region,the western regionand the central region. In addition,learning-by-doing,learning-by-researching andlearning-by-importing play a positive role in reducing the industrial air pollutants intensity.
The reduction potential of industrial air pollutants intensity is the basis for formulating air pollutant emission reduction plan. This paper build a model to measure the reduction potential of industrial air pollutants intensity based on heterogeneous stochastic frontier analysis method and thetheory of environmental learning curves that include factors such as learning-by-doing,learning-by-researching andlearning-by-importing. The results show thatChina's industrial air pollutants intensity has a reduction potential of 26. 5% to 33. 5%. The rank of different regions for reduction potential of industrial air pollutants intensity from large to small is the northeast region,the eastern region,the western regionand the central region. In addition,learning-by-doing,learning-by-researching andlearning-by-importing play a positive role in reducing the industrial air pollutants intensity.
引文
[1]王书斌,徐盈之.环境规制与雾霾脱钩效应——基于企业投资偏好的视角[J].中国工业经济,2015(4):18-30.
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[3]姚西龙,牛冲槐,刘佳.创新驱动、绿色发展与我国工业经济的转型效率研究[J].中国科技论坛,2015(1):57-62.
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[5]陈媛媛,李坤望.中国工业行业SO2排放强度因素分解及其影响因素——基于FDI产业前后向联系的分析[J].管理世界,2010(3):14-21.
[6]MIOLA A,CIUFFO B. Estimating air emissions from ships:Meta-analysis of modelling approaches and available data sources[J]. Atmospheric Environment,2011,45(13):2242-2251.
[7]韩亚芬,孙根年,李琦.中国省际SO2排放的环境学习曲线及减排潜力[J].环境科学研究,2008,21(3):201-206.
[8]SHIH Y H,TSENG C H. Cost-benefit analysis of sustainable energy development using life-cycle co-benefits assessment and the system dynamics approach[J]. Applied Energy,2014,119(12):57-66.
[9]SHABBIR R,AHMAD S S. Monitoring urban transport air pollution and energy demand in Rawalpindi and Islamabad using leap model[J]. Energy,2010,35(5):2323-2332.
[10]陈娟,李巍,程红光,等.北京市大气污染减排潜力及居民健康效益评估[J].环境科学研究,2015(7):1114-1121.
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[13]AZAM M,OTHMAN J,BEGUM R A,et al. Energy consumption and emission projection for the road transport sector in Malaysia:an application of the LEAP model[J].Environment Development&Sustainability,2016,18(4):1027-1047.
[14]BOLLEN J. The value of air pollution co-benefits of climate policies:Analysis with a global sector-trade CGE model called World Scan[J]. Technological Forecasting&Social Change,2014,90(1):178-191.
[15]LSCHEL A. Technological change in economic models of environmental policy:a survey[J]. Ecological Economics,2002,43(2/3):105-126.
[16]JACOBY H D,REILLY J M,MCFARLAND J R,et al. Technology and technical change in the MIT EPPA model[J]. Energy Economics,2006,28(5/6):610-631.
[17]HU X,LIU Y,SHI Q,et al. SO2emission reduction decomposition of environmental tax based on different consumption tax refunds[J]. Journal of Cleaner Production,2018,186(10):997-1010.
[18]孟庆春,黄伟东,戎晓霞.灰霾环境下能源效率测算与节能减排潜力分析——基于多非期望产出的NHDEA模型[J].中国管理科学,2016(8):53-61.
[19]汪克亮,杨宝臣,杨力.基于环境效应的中国能源效率与节能减排潜力分析[J].管理评论,2012(8):42-52.
[20]余泳泽.我国节能减排潜力、治理效率与实施路径研究[J].中国工业经济,2011(5):58-68.
[21]魏楚,杜立民,沈满洪.中国能否实现节能减排目标:基于DEA方法的评价与模拟[J].世界经济,2010(3):141-160.
[22]邓姗姗,张莹莹,陈蕾,等.中国省际可实现节能减排潜力测度——基于三阶段DEA模型的研究[J].产业经济评论,2016(1):44-58.
[23]MOORE F C. Climate change and air pollution:exploring the synergies and potential for mitigation in industrializing countries[J]. Sustainability,2009,1(1):43-54.
[24]DODDS P E,KEPPO I,STRACHAN N. Characterising the evolution of energy system models using model archaeology[J]. Environmental Modeling&Assessment,2015,20(2):83-102.
[25]WANG W,YU B,YAO X,et al. Can technological learning significantly reduce industrial air pollutants intensity in China?——Based on a multi-factor environmental learning curve[J]. Journal of Cleaner Production,2018(185):137-147.
[26]连玉君,苏治.融资约束、不确定性与上市公司投资效率[J].管理评论,2009,21(1):19-26.
[27]王丽霞,陈新国,姚西龙,等.我国工业企业对环境规制政策的响应度研究[J].中国软科学,2017(10):143-152.
[28]SDERHOLM P,SUNDQVIST T. Empirical challenges in the use of learning curves for assessing the economic prospects of renewable energy technologies[J]. Renewable Energy,2007,32(15):2559-2578.
[29]KAHOULI-BRAHMI S. Technological learning in energy-environment-economy modelling:A survey[J]. Energy Policy,2008,36(1):138-162.
[30]魏巍贤,杨芳.技术进步对中国二氧化碳排放的影响[J].统计研究,2010(7):36-44.
[31]PESSOA A.“Ideas”driven growth:the OECD evidence[J]. Portuguese Economic Journal,2005(4):46-67.
[32]吴延兵.自主研发、技术引进与生产率——基于中国地区工业的实证研究[J].经济研究,2008(8):51-64.
[33]王丽霞,陈新国,姚西龙.环境规制政策对工业企业绿色发展绩效影响的门限效应研究[J].经济问题,2018(1):78-81.
[34]DECHEZLEPRêTRE A,SATO M. The impacts of environmental regulations on competitiveness[J]. Review of Environmental Economics and Policy,2017(11):183-206.
[35]CRETI A,SANIN M E. Does environmental regulation create merger incentives?[J]. Energy Policy,2017,105(6):618-630.
[36]ABRELL J,RAUSCH S. Combining price and quantity controls under partitioned environmental regulation[J]. Journal of Public Economics,2017,145(1):226-242.
[37]郭英远,张胜,张丹萍.环境规制、政府研发资助与绿色技术创新:抑制或促进?——一个研究综述[J].华东经济管理,2018,32(7):40-47.
[38]彭星,李斌.不同类型环境规制下中国工业绿色转型问题研究[J].财经研究,2016,42(7):134-144.
[39]谷国锋,王建康,刘多,等.东北地区经济发展与环境协调关系的实证分析[J].华东经济管理,2016,30(1):63-70.
[40]张波,温旭新.我国工业绿色低碳发展水平的省际测度及比较[J].经济问题,2018(5):68-74.
[2]石庆玲,郭峰,陈诗一.雾霾治理中的“政治性蓝天”——来自中国地方“两会”的证据[J].中国工业经济,2016(5):40-56.
[3]姚西龙,牛冲槐,刘佳.创新驱动、绿色发展与我国工业经济的转型效率研究[J].中国科技论坛,2015(1):57-62.
[4]FRONDEL M,HORBACH J,RENNINGS K. End-of-pipe or cleaner production? An empirical comparison of environmental innovation decisions across OECD countries[J].Business Strategy and the Environment,2007,16(8):571-584.
[5]陈媛媛,李坤望.中国工业行业SO2排放强度因素分解及其影响因素——基于FDI产业前后向联系的分析[J].管理世界,2010(3):14-21.
[6]MIOLA A,CIUFFO B. Estimating air emissions from ships:Meta-analysis of modelling approaches and available data sources[J]. Atmospheric Environment,2011,45(13):2242-2251.
[7]韩亚芬,孙根年,李琦.中国省际SO2排放的环境学习曲线及减排潜力[J].环境科学研究,2008,21(3):201-206.
[8]SHIH Y H,TSENG C H. Cost-benefit analysis of sustainable energy development using life-cycle co-benefits assessment and the system dynamics approach[J]. Applied Energy,2014,119(12):57-66.
[9]SHABBIR R,AHMAD S S. Monitoring urban transport air pollution and energy demand in Rawalpindi and Islamabad using leap model[J]. Energy,2010,35(5):2323-2332.
[10]陈娟,李巍,程红光,等.北京市大气污染减排潜力及居民健康效益评估[J].环境科学研究,2015(7):1114-1121.
[11]BOUDRI J C,HORDIJK L,KROEZE C,et al. The potential contribution of renewable energy in air pollution abatement in China and India[J]. Energy Policy,2002,30(5):409-424.
[12]TSILINGIRIDIS G,SIDIROPOULOS C,PENTALIOTIS A. Reduction of air pollutant emissions using renewable energy sources for power generation in Cyprus[J]. Renewable Energy,2011,36(12):3292-3296.
[13]AZAM M,OTHMAN J,BEGUM R A,et al. Energy consumption and emission projection for the road transport sector in Malaysia:an application of the LEAP model[J].Environment Development&Sustainability,2016,18(4):1027-1047.
[14]BOLLEN J. The value of air pollution co-benefits of climate policies:Analysis with a global sector-trade CGE model called World Scan[J]. Technological Forecasting&Social Change,2014,90(1):178-191.
[15]LSCHEL A. Technological change in economic models of environmental policy:a survey[J]. Ecological Economics,2002,43(2/3):105-126.
[16]JACOBY H D,REILLY J M,MCFARLAND J R,et al. Technology and technical change in the MIT EPPA model[J]. Energy Economics,2006,28(5/6):610-631.
[17]HU X,LIU Y,SHI Q,et al. SO2emission reduction decomposition of environmental tax based on different consumption tax refunds[J]. Journal of Cleaner Production,2018,186(10):997-1010.
[18]孟庆春,黄伟东,戎晓霞.灰霾环境下能源效率测算与节能减排潜力分析——基于多非期望产出的NHDEA模型[J].中国管理科学,2016(8):53-61.
[19]汪克亮,杨宝臣,杨力.基于环境效应的中国能源效率与节能减排潜力分析[J].管理评论,2012(8):42-52.
[20]余泳泽.我国节能减排潜力、治理效率与实施路径研究[J].中国工业经济,2011(5):58-68.
[21]魏楚,杜立民,沈满洪.中国能否实现节能减排目标:基于DEA方法的评价与模拟[J].世界经济,2010(3):141-160.
[22]邓姗姗,张莹莹,陈蕾,等.中国省际可实现节能减排潜力测度——基于三阶段DEA模型的研究[J].产业经济评论,2016(1):44-58.
[23]MOORE F C. Climate change and air pollution:exploring the synergies and potential for mitigation in industrializing countries[J]. Sustainability,2009,1(1):43-54.
[24]DODDS P E,KEPPO I,STRACHAN N. Characterising the evolution of energy system models using model archaeology[J]. Environmental Modeling&Assessment,2015,20(2):83-102.
[25]WANG W,YU B,YAO X,et al. Can technological learning significantly reduce industrial air pollutants intensity in China?——Based on a multi-factor environmental learning curve[J]. Journal of Cleaner Production,2018(185):137-147.
[26]连玉君,苏治.融资约束、不确定性与上市公司投资效率[J].管理评论,2009,21(1):19-26.
[27]王丽霞,陈新国,姚西龙,等.我国工业企业对环境规制政策的响应度研究[J].中国软科学,2017(10):143-152.
[28]SDERHOLM P,SUNDQVIST T. Empirical challenges in the use of learning curves for assessing the economic prospects of renewable energy technologies[J]. Renewable Energy,2007,32(15):2559-2578.
[29]KAHOULI-BRAHMI S. Technological learning in energy-environment-economy modelling:A survey[J]. Energy Policy,2008,36(1):138-162.
[30]魏巍贤,杨芳.技术进步对中国二氧化碳排放的影响[J].统计研究,2010(7):36-44.
[31]PESSOA A.“Ideas”driven growth:the OECD evidence[J]. Portuguese Economic Journal,2005(4):46-67.
[32]吴延兵.自主研发、技术引进与生产率——基于中国地区工业的实证研究[J].经济研究,2008(8):51-64.
[33]王丽霞,陈新国,姚西龙.环境规制政策对工业企业绿色发展绩效影响的门限效应研究[J].经济问题,2018(1):78-81.
[34]DECHEZLEPRêTRE A,SATO M. The impacts of environmental regulations on competitiveness[J]. Review of Environmental Economics and Policy,2017(11):183-206.
[35]CRETI A,SANIN M E. Does environmental regulation create merger incentives?[J]. Energy Policy,2017,105(6):618-630.
[36]ABRELL J,RAUSCH S. Combining price and quantity controls under partitioned environmental regulation[J]. Journal of Public Economics,2017,145(1):226-242.
[37]郭英远,张胜,张丹萍.环境规制、政府研发资助与绿色技术创新:抑制或促进?——一个研究综述[J].华东经济管理,2018,32(7):40-47.
[38]彭星,李斌.不同类型环境规制下中国工业绿色转型问题研究[J].财经研究,2016,42(7):134-144.
[39]谷国锋,王建康,刘多,等.东北地区经济发展与环境协调关系的实证分析[J].华东经济管理,2016,30(1):63-70.
[40]张波,温旭新.我国工业绿色低碳发展水平的省际测度及比较[J].经济问题,2018(5):68-74.