1961-2010年中国十大流域水分盈亏量时空变化特征
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摘要
采用线性回归方法和Mann-Kendall方法对1961-2010年中国和十大流域水分盈亏量的气候及变化趋势特征进行分析,并对各流域年水分盈亏量变化成因进行探讨。结果表明:1中国多年平均年水分盈亏量(1961-2010年平均)为负值,水分条件表现为亏缺。空间分布总体呈现南方盈余,向北向西水分亏缺态势。2中国水分盈亏量月变化特征表现为夏季6-8月有盈余,7月盈余量最大;其余各月为亏缺,4月亏缺量最大,十大流域月变化特征各有不同。31961-2010年,中国年水分亏缺量呈现多—少—多变化态势,1990s亏缺量为近50年来最少。2000s中国水分亏缺量较常年偏多,主要是由于大多数流域水分亏缺量偏多或盈余量偏少造成的。4近50年来,全国平均年和春夏冬三季水分盈亏量呈现增加趋势,秋季减少趋势显著。5松花江、辽河、海河、黄河流域及西南诸河年水分盈亏量呈现减少趋势,除西南诸河是由于年降水量增加速率小于蒸散量增加速率导致其减少趋势外,其它四个流域则是由于年降水量减少速率大于潜在蒸散量减少速率,年降水量减少变化趋势起主要作用;其余流域年水分盈亏量呈现增加趋势,淮河和长江流域主要是因为潜在蒸散量减少速率大于降水的减少速率,潜在蒸散量的减少变化趋势起主要作用,东南诸河、西北诸河、珠江流域由于年降水量增加、潜在蒸散量减少,二者均对水分盈亏量增加有利。
In this paper, linear regression and Mann-Kendall methods are used to examine the climate trend characteristics of annual water surplus and deficit and their causes in the 10 major river basins over China during 1961-2010. The results showed that:(1) The mean annual water surplus and deficit in China during 1961- 2010 was negative and the water condition was deficient. The spatial pattern of normal values shows surplus in the south and deficit in the north and west parts of China.(2) The normal monthly values of water surplus and deficit across China show surplus from June to August and deficit in other months. The most surplus was observed in July and the most deficit in April. Different monthly variations were found in each river basin.(3) Decadal variation of annual water surplus and deficit of China shows the feature of more- less- more than normal. The deficit of the 1990 s was the least in the past 50 years. In the 2000 s, the water deficits of China were more than normal, which was mainly caused by more deficit and less surplus in most of the river basins.(4) Annual, spring, summer and winter water surplus and deficit of China increased during 1961- 2010 and the water condition became better, while it decreased significantly in autumn.(5) In the basins of Songhua River, Liaohe River, Haihe River, Yellow River and river basins of Southwest China,the annual water surplus and deficit showed a decreasing trend. For the four major river basins,the decreasing rate of annual precipitation was greater than that of annual potential evapotranspiration, and the decreasing annual precipitation played a great role in these regions.But in river basins of Southwest China, the increasing rate of annual precipitation was less than that of annual potential evapotranspiration, which led to a reduction of water availability. In the Huaihe and Yangtze river basins, the decreasing rate of annual evapotranspiration was greater than that of annual precipitation, which resulted in an uptrend of annual water surplus and deficit. In river basins of Southeast China, Pearl River Basin and river basins of Northwest China, the increase in annual precipitation and decrease in annual evapotranspiration are both beneficial to water increase.
In this paper, linear regression and Mann-Kendall methods are used to examine the climate trend characteristics of annual water surplus and deficit and their causes in the 10 major river basins over China during 1961-2010. The results showed that:(1) The mean annual water surplus and deficit in China during 1961- 2010 was negative and the water condition was deficient. The spatial pattern of normal values shows surplus in the south and deficit in the north and west parts of China.(2) The normal monthly values of water surplus and deficit across China show surplus from June to August and deficit in other months. The most surplus was observed in July and the most deficit in April. Different monthly variations were found in each river basin.(3) Decadal variation of annual water surplus and deficit of China shows the feature of more- less- more than normal. The deficit of the 1990 s was the least in the past 50 years. In the 2000 s, the water deficits of China were more than normal, which was mainly caused by more deficit and less surplus in most of the river basins.(4) Annual, spring, summer and winter water surplus and deficit of China increased during 1961- 2010 and the water condition became better, while it decreased significantly in autumn.(5) In the basins of Songhua River, Liaohe River, Haihe River, Yellow River and river basins of Southwest China,the annual water surplus and deficit showed a decreasing trend. For the four major river basins,the decreasing rate of annual precipitation was greater than that of annual potential evapotranspiration, and the decreasing annual precipitation played a great role in these regions.But in river basins of Southwest China, the increasing rate of annual precipitation was less than that of annual potential evapotranspiration, which led to a reduction of water availability. In the Huaihe and Yangtze river basins, the decreasing rate of annual evapotranspiration was greater than that of annual precipitation, which resulted in an uptrend of annual water surplus and deficit. In river basins of Southeast China, Pearl River Basin and river basins of Northwest China, the increase in annual precipitation and decrease in annual evapotranspiration are both beneficial to water increase.
引文
[1]Lu Yurong,Gao Guodong,Li Huaijin.On the dry and wet condition of China.Journal of Nanjing University(Natural Sciences),1979,(1):125-138.[陆渝蓉,高国栋,李怀瑾.关于我国干湿状况的研究.南京大学学报(自然科学版),1979,(1):125-138.]
[2]Zhao Junfang,Guo Jianping,Xu Jingwen et al.Trends of Chinese dry-wet condition based on wetness index.Transactions of the CSAE,2010,26(8):18-24.[赵俊芳,郭建平,徐精文等.基于湿润指数的中国干湿状况变化趋势.农业工程学报,2010,26(8):18-24.]
[3]Liu Bo,Ma Zhuguo.Area change of dry and wet regions in China in the past 45 years.Arid land Geography,2007,30(1):8-15.[刘波,马柱国.过去45年中国干湿气候区域变化特征.干旱区地理,2007,30(1):8-15.]
[4]Sun Li,Shen Baizhu,An Gang.A study of the variation and tendency of surface dry-and-wet state of northeast area in China.Journal of Applied Meteorological Science,2003,14(5):542-552.[孙力,沈柏竹,安刚.中国东北地区地表干湿状况的变化及趋势分析.应用气象学报,2003,14(5):542-552.]
[5]Vicente-Serrano S M,Beguería S,López-Moreno J I.A multiscalar drought index sensitive to global warming:The standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index.Journal of Climate,2010,23(7):1696-1718.
[6]Li Weiguang,Yi Xue,Hou Meiting et al.Standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index shows drought trends in China.Chinese Journal of Eco-Agriculture,2012,20(5):643-649.[李伟光,易雪,侯美亭等.基于标准化降水蒸散指数的中国干旱趋势研究.中国生态农业学报,2012,20(5):643-649.]
[7]Wang Zunya,Ding Yihui,He Jinhai et al.An updating analysis of the climate change in China in recent 50 years.Acta Meteorologica Sinica,2004,62(2):228-236.[王遵娅,丁一汇,何金海等.近50年来中国气候变化特征的再分析.气象学报,2004,62(2):228-236.]
[8]Chen Yu,Gao Ge,Ren Guoyu et al.Spatial and temporal variation of precipitation over ten major basins in China between 1956-2000.Journal of Natural Resources,2005,20(5):637-643.[陈峪,高歌,任国玉等.中国十大流域近40多年降水量时空变化特征.自然资源学报,2005,20(5):637-643.]
[9]Gao G,Chen D L,Ren G Y et al.Spatial and temporal variations and controlling factors of potential evapotranspiration in China:1956-2000.Journal Geographical Sciences,2006,16(1):3-12
[10]Yin Yunhe,Wu Shaohong,Dai Erfu.Determining factors in potential evapotranspiration changes over China in the period 1971-2008.Chinese Science Bulletin,2010,55(22):2226-2234.[尹云鹤,吴绍洪,戴尔阜.1971-2008年我国潜在蒸散时空演变的归因.科学通报,2010,55(22):2226-2234.]
[11]Cao Wen,Shen Shuanghe,Duan Chunfeng.Temporal-spatial variations of potential evapotranspiration and quantification of the causes in Northwest China.Acta Ecologica Sinica,2012,32(11):3394-3403.[曹雯,申双和,段春锋.中国西北潜在蒸散时空演变特征及其定量化成因.生态学报,2012,32(11):3394-3403.]
[12]Zhang Shujie,Zhang Yushu,Caifu et al.Changes of water budget and their effects and responses in northeastern China from 1961 to 2007.Resources Science,2010,32(4):663-670.[张淑杰,张玉书,蔡福等.1961年至2007年东北地区水分盈亏变化趋势及其影响与响应.资源科学,2010,32(4):663-670.]
[13]Zeng Lihong,Song Kaishan,Zhang Bai.Spatial and temporal structure of water deficit over northeast China during the period of 1951-2008.Journal of Natural Resources,2011,26(5):858-870.[曾丽红,宋开山,张柏.1951-2008年东北地区水分盈亏量时空格局.自然资源学报,2011,26(5):858-870.]
[14]Zeng Yan,Liu Changming,Qiu Xinfa.Water resources analysis based on climatic indices.Journal of the Graduate School of the Chinese Academy of Sciences,2003,20(4):458-463.[曾燕,刘昌明,邱新法.从气候角度分析西北地区水资源状况.中国科学院研究生院学报,2003,20(4):458-463.]
[15]Yao Xiaojun,Zhang Xiao,Sun Meiping.Spatial-temporal characteristics of water deficit in Northwest China from 1960to 2010.Geographical Research,2013,32(4):607-616.[姚晓军,张晓,孙美平等.1960-2010年中国西北地区水分盈亏量时空特征.地理研究,2013,32(4):607-616.]
[16]Shao Xiaomei,Xu Yueqing,Yan Changrong.Analysis on the spatial and temporal structure of climatic water deficit in the Yellow River Basin.Climatic and Environmental Research,2007,12(1):74-80.[邵晓梅,许月卿,严昌荣.黄河流域气候水分盈亏时空格局分析.气候与环境研究,2007,12(1):74-80.]
[17]Shi Jianguo,Yan Changrong,He Wenqing.Study on spatial and temporal variation of water surplus and deficiency in Yellow River basin.Journal of Natural Resources,2008,23(1):113-119.[史建国,严昌荣,何文清等.黄河流域水分亏缺时空格局变化研究.自然资源学报,2008,23(1):113-119.]
[18]Li Pengfei,Sun Xiaoming,Zhao Xinyi.Analysis of precipitation and potential evapotranspiration in arid and semi arid area of China in recent 50 years.Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment,2012,26(7):57-63.[李鹏飞,孙小明,赵昕奕.近50年中国干旱半干旱地区降水量与潜在蒸散量分析.干旱区资源与环境,2012,26(7):57-63.]
[19]The Ministry of Water Resources of the people’s Republic of China.China Water Resources Bulletin.Beijing:China Water Power Press,2010:1-51.[中华人民共和国水利部.中国水资源公报.北京:中国水利水电出版社,2010:1-51]
[20]Chen D L,Gao G,Xu C Y et al.Comparison of the Thornthwaite method and pan data with the standard PenmanMonteith estimates of reference evapotranspiration in China.Climate Research,2005,28:123-132.
[21]Allen R G,Pereira L S,Raes D et al.Crop evapotranspiration:Guidelines for Computing Crop Water Requirements–FAO Irrigation&Drainage Paper 56.Roma:United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization,1998.
[22]Cressman G P.An operational objective analysis system.Monthly Weather Review,1959,87:367-374.
[23]Haan,C T.Statistical Methods in Hydrology.2nd ed.Iowa:Iowa State University Press,2002:496.
[24]Chu J T,Xia J,Xu C Y et al.Spatial and temporal variability of daily precipitation in Haihe River basin,1958-2007.Journal of Geographical Sciences,2010,20(2):248-260.
[25]Gao Ge.The climatic characteristics and change of haze days over China during 1961-2005.Acta Geographica Sinica,2008,63(7):761-768.[高歌.1961-2005年中国霾日气候特征及变化分析.地理学报,2008,63(7):761-768.]
[26]Yue S,Pilon P,Phinney B et al.The influence of autocorrelation on the ability to detect trend in hydrological series.Hydrological Processes,2002,16:1807-1829.
[27]Zhang Fangmin,Shen Shuanghe.A study on dry/wet conditions and changes of dry/wet climate boundary in China.Journal of Nanjing Institute of Meteorology,2008,31(4):574-579.[张方敏,申双和.中国干湿状况和干湿气候界限变化研究.南京气象学院学报,2008,31(4):574-579.]
[28]Wu Shaohong,Yin Yunhe,Zheng Du et al.Dry and wet condition in China in recent 30 years.Science in China,Series D,Earth Sciences,2005,35(3):276-283.[吴绍洪,尹云鹤,郑度等.近30年中国陆地表层干湿状况研究.中国科学D辑:地球科学,2005,35(3):276-283.]
[29]Zhao Ji,Chen Chuankang.Geography of China.Beijing:Higher Education Press,2012:35.[赵济,陈传康.中国地理.北京:高等教育出版社,2012:35.]
[2]Zhao Junfang,Guo Jianping,Xu Jingwen et al.Trends of Chinese dry-wet condition based on wetness index.Transactions of the CSAE,2010,26(8):18-24.[赵俊芳,郭建平,徐精文等.基于湿润指数的中国干湿状况变化趋势.农业工程学报,2010,26(8):18-24.]
[3]Liu Bo,Ma Zhuguo.Area change of dry and wet regions in China in the past 45 years.Arid land Geography,2007,30(1):8-15.[刘波,马柱国.过去45年中国干湿气候区域变化特征.干旱区地理,2007,30(1):8-15.]
[4]Sun Li,Shen Baizhu,An Gang.A study of the variation and tendency of surface dry-and-wet state of northeast area in China.Journal of Applied Meteorological Science,2003,14(5):542-552.[孙力,沈柏竹,安刚.中国东北地区地表干湿状况的变化及趋势分析.应用气象学报,2003,14(5):542-552.]
[5]Vicente-Serrano S M,Beguería S,López-Moreno J I.A multiscalar drought index sensitive to global warming:The standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index.Journal of Climate,2010,23(7):1696-1718.
[6]Li Weiguang,Yi Xue,Hou Meiting et al.Standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index shows drought trends in China.Chinese Journal of Eco-Agriculture,2012,20(5):643-649.[李伟光,易雪,侯美亭等.基于标准化降水蒸散指数的中国干旱趋势研究.中国生态农业学报,2012,20(5):643-649.]
[7]Wang Zunya,Ding Yihui,He Jinhai et al.An updating analysis of the climate change in China in recent 50 years.Acta Meteorologica Sinica,2004,62(2):228-236.[王遵娅,丁一汇,何金海等.近50年来中国气候变化特征的再分析.气象学报,2004,62(2):228-236.]
[8]Chen Yu,Gao Ge,Ren Guoyu et al.Spatial and temporal variation of precipitation over ten major basins in China between 1956-2000.Journal of Natural Resources,2005,20(5):637-643.[陈峪,高歌,任国玉等.中国十大流域近40多年降水量时空变化特征.自然资源学报,2005,20(5):637-643.]
[9]Gao G,Chen D L,Ren G Y et al.Spatial and temporal variations and controlling factors of potential evapotranspiration in China:1956-2000.Journal Geographical Sciences,2006,16(1):3-12
[10]Yin Yunhe,Wu Shaohong,Dai Erfu.Determining factors in potential evapotranspiration changes over China in the period 1971-2008.Chinese Science Bulletin,2010,55(22):2226-2234.[尹云鹤,吴绍洪,戴尔阜.1971-2008年我国潜在蒸散时空演变的归因.科学通报,2010,55(22):2226-2234.]
[11]Cao Wen,Shen Shuanghe,Duan Chunfeng.Temporal-spatial variations of potential evapotranspiration and quantification of the causes in Northwest China.Acta Ecologica Sinica,2012,32(11):3394-3403.[曹雯,申双和,段春锋.中国西北潜在蒸散时空演变特征及其定量化成因.生态学报,2012,32(11):3394-3403.]
[12]Zhang Shujie,Zhang Yushu,Caifu et al.Changes of water budget and their effects and responses in northeastern China from 1961 to 2007.Resources Science,2010,32(4):663-670.[张淑杰,张玉书,蔡福等.1961年至2007年东北地区水分盈亏变化趋势及其影响与响应.资源科学,2010,32(4):663-670.]
[13]Zeng Lihong,Song Kaishan,Zhang Bai.Spatial and temporal structure of water deficit over northeast China during the period of 1951-2008.Journal of Natural Resources,2011,26(5):858-870.[曾丽红,宋开山,张柏.1951-2008年东北地区水分盈亏量时空格局.自然资源学报,2011,26(5):858-870.]
[14]Zeng Yan,Liu Changming,Qiu Xinfa.Water resources analysis based on climatic indices.Journal of the Graduate School of the Chinese Academy of Sciences,2003,20(4):458-463.[曾燕,刘昌明,邱新法.从气候角度分析西北地区水资源状况.中国科学院研究生院学报,2003,20(4):458-463.]
[15]Yao Xiaojun,Zhang Xiao,Sun Meiping.Spatial-temporal characteristics of water deficit in Northwest China from 1960to 2010.Geographical Research,2013,32(4):607-616.[姚晓军,张晓,孙美平等.1960-2010年中国西北地区水分盈亏量时空特征.地理研究,2013,32(4):607-616.]
[16]Shao Xiaomei,Xu Yueqing,Yan Changrong.Analysis on the spatial and temporal structure of climatic water deficit in the Yellow River Basin.Climatic and Environmental Research,2007,12(1):74-80.[邵晓梅,许月卿,严昌荣.黄河流域气候水分盈亏时空格局分析.气候与环境研究,2007,12(1):74-80.]
[17]Shi Jianguo,Yan Changrong,He Wenqing.Study on spatial and temporal variation of water surplus and deficiency in Yellow River basin.Journal of Natural Resources,2008,23(1):113-119.[史建国,严昌荣,何文清等.黄河流域水分亏缺时空格局变化研究.自然资源学报,2008,23(1):113-119.]
[18]Li Pengfei,Sun Xiaoming,Zhao Xinyi.Analysis of precipitation and potential evapotranspiration in arid and semi arid area of China in recent 50 years.Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment,2012,26(7):57-63.[李鹏飞,孙小明,赵昕奕.近50年中国干旱半干旱地区降水量与潜在蒸散量分析.干旱区资源与环境,2012,26(7):57-63.]
[19]The Ministry of Water Resources of the people’s Republic of China.China Water Resources Bulletin.Beijing:China Water Power Press,2010:1-51.[中华人民共和国水利部.中国水资源公报.北京:中国水利水电出版社,2010:1-51]
[20]Chen D L,Gao G,Xu C Y et al.Comparison of the Thornthwaite method and pan data with the standard PenmanMonteith estimates of reference evapotranspiration in China.Climate Research,2005,28:123-132.
[21]Allen R G,Pereira L S,Raes D et al.Crop evapotranspiration:Guidelines for Computing Crop Water Requirements–FAO Irrigation&Drainage Paper 56.Roma:United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization,1998.
[22]Cressman G P.An operational objective analysis system.Monthly Weather Review,1959,87:367-374.
[23]Haan,C T.Statistical Methods in Hydrology.2nd ed.Iowa:Iowa State University Press,2002:496.
[24]Chu J T,Xia J,Xu C Y et al.Spatial and temporal variability of daily precipitation in Haihe River basin,1958-2007.Journal of Geographical Sciences,2010,20(2):248-260.
[25]Gao Ge.The climatic characteristics and change of haze days over China during 1961-2005.Acta Geographica Sinica,2008,63(7):761-768.[高歌.1961-2005年中国霾日气候特征及变化分析.地理学报,2008,63(7):761-768.]
[26]Yue S,Pilon P,Phinney B et al.The influence of autocorrelation on the ability to detect trend in hydrological series.Hydrological Processes,2002,16:1807-1829.
[27]Zhang Fangmin,Shen Shuanghe.A study on dry/wet conditions and changes of dry/wet climate boundary in China.Journal of Nanjing Institute of Meteorology,2008,31(4):574-579.[张方敏,申双和.中国干湿状况和干湿气候界限变化研究.南京气象学院学报,2008,31(4):574-579.]
[28]Wu Shaohong,Yin Yunhe,Zheng Du et al.Dry and wet condition in China in recent 30 years.Science in China,Series D,Earth Sciences,2005,35(3):276-283.[吴绍洪,尹云鹤,郑度等.近30年中国陆地表层干湿状况研究.中国科学D辑:地球科学,2005,35(3):276-283.]
[29]Zhao Ji,Chen Chuankang.Geography of China.Beijing:Higher Education Press,2012:35.[赵济,陈传康.中国地理.北京:高等教育出版社,2012:35.]