基于系统动力学模型的中国天然气需求情景预测及影响因素研究
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摘要
本文在对中国天然气系统结构和反馈关系分析的基础上,建立中国天然气供需系统动力学模型,并提出一种改进的Logistic模型求解方法对中国天然气产量进行预测,然后将产量预测值输入系统动力学模型中,通过改变模型中的部分参数,设置了7种情景对中国天然气的需求量及消费结构进行仿真模拟。结果表明:中国天然气产量峰值将出现在2038年左右,峰值产量约为2800亿立方米;随着经济的不断发展以及城镇化的不断深入,中国天然气需求量将逐年稳步增长,到2035年将达到3600~4500亿立方米之间;在消费结构方面,城市燃气仍将是天然气消费的第一大户,其后依次是工业燃料、天然气发电和天然气化工;此外,相较于人口增长,经济发展在促进天然气需求量增长中仍起主导作用,而城镇化对城市燃气的影响较为明显,天然气利用技术的提升可有效降低天然气消费总量。
Based on the analysis of the structure and feedback relation of China's natural gas supply-demand system, this paper establishes a system dynamics model. The natural gas production is set as an input variable of the model, and is forecasted by the improved logistic model in solving method. In order to simulate the total demand and consumption structure of China natural gas, we set seven scenarios by means of changing some of the parameters of the model. Results shows that the peak of natural gas production in China will occur in about 2038, and the production peak is expected to reach 2800 billion cubic meters. With the continuous development of the economy and the deepening of urbanization, the total demand of China natural gas will steadily increase year by year, and will reach an interval from 3600 to 4500 billion cubic meters in 2035. What's more, in terms of consumption structure, urban gas will be still the first large consumption sector of natural gas, followed by industrial fuel, gas power generation and natural gas chemical industry. In addition, compared with the population growth, economic development still plays a dominant role in the promotion of natural gas demand growth, and the impact of urbanization on urban gas is obvious, the promotion of natural gas utilization technology can effectively reduce the total consumption of natural gas.
Based on the analysis of the structure and feedback relation of China's natural gas supply-demand system, this paper establishes a system dynamics model. The natural gas production is set as an input variable of the model, and is forecasted by the improved logistic model in solving method. In order to simulate the total demand and consumption structure of China natural gas, we set seven scenarios by means of changing some of the parameters of the model. Results shows that the peak of natural gas production in China will occur in about 2038, and the production peak is expected to reach 2800 billion cubic meters. With the continuous development of the economy and the deepening of urbanization, the total demand of China natural gas will steadily increase year by year, and will reach an interval from 3600 to 4500 billion cubic meters in 2035. What's more, in terms of consumption structure, urban gas will be still the first large consumption sector of natural gas, followed by industrial fuel, gas power generation and natural gas chemical industry. In addition, compared with the population growth, economic development still plays a dominant role in the promotion of natural gas demand growth, and the impact of urbanization on urban gas is obvious, the promotion of natural gas utilization technology can effectively reduce the total consumption of natural gas.
引文
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[2]Szoplik J.Forecasting of natural gas consumption with artificial neural networks[J].energy.2015(85):208-220.
[3]Bai Y,Li C.Daily natural gas consumption forecasting based on a structure-calibrated support vector regression approach[J].Energy and Buildings.2016,127:571-579.
[4]Xu G,Wang W.Forecasting China’s natural gas consumption based on a combination model[J].Journal of Natural Gas Chemistry.2010(19):493-496.
[5]殷建成,陈建斌.天然气需求自适应优化组合预测模型研究[J].天然气工业,2004,21(11).
[6]杨瑞广,范英,魏一鸣.煤炭投资—供应的系统动力学分析模型[J].数理统计与管理,2005(05):6-12.
[7]陈海涛.基于系统动力学的中国石油需求系统模型及预测[J].统计与决策,2010(20):98-101.
[8]李玮,杨钢.基于系统动力学的山西省能源消费可持续发展研究[J].资源科学,2010(10):1871-1877.
[9]吕涛,张美珍,雷强.基于系统动力学的印度能源及煤炭需求情景预测[J].资源科学,2015(06):1199-1206.
[10]史立军,周泓.我国天然气供需安全的系统动力学分析[J].中国软科学,2012(03):162-169.
[11]李君臣,董秀成,高建.我国天然气消费的系统动力学预测与分析[J].天然气工业,2010(04):127-129.
[12]赵媛,曾尊固,陈周骅.树立大能源系统观,促进能源可持续发展[J].经济地理,2001(06):749-752.
[13]Wang J,Jiang H,Zhou Q,et al.China’s natural gas production and consumption analysis based on the multicycle Hubbert model and rolling Grey model[J].Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews.2016,53:1149-1167.
[14]Reynolds D B,Kolodziej M.North American Natural Gas Supply Forecast:The Hubbert Method Including the Effects of Institutions[J].Energies.2009,2(2):269-306.
[15]Wang J,Feng L,Zhao L,et al.China’s natural gas:Resources,production and its impacts[J].Energy Policy.2013,55:690-698.
[16]李明玉,李凯,郁培丽.Hubbert曲线系统动力学模型预测能力分析——以美国石油产量数据为例[J].系统工程,2009(02):102-108.
[17]Lin B,Wang T.Forecasting natural gas supply in China:Production peak and import trends[J].Energy Policy.2012,49:225-233.
[18]Wang T,Lin B.China’s natural gas consumption and subsidies—From a sector perspective[J].Energy Policy.2014,65:541-551.
[19]国家统计局能源统计司.中国统计年鉴[M].北京:中国统计出版社,2014.
[20]Nations U.World Polulation Prospects[R].New York,2015.
[21]林伯强.电力消费与中国经济增长:基于生产函数的研究[J].管理世界,2003(11):18-27.
[22]杨勇平,杨志平,徐钢等.中国火力发电能耗状况及展望[J].中国电机工程学报,2013(23):1-11.
[23]国家人口发展战略研究课题组.国家人口发展战略研究报告[R].北京,2007.
[24]蔡昉,张车伟.人口与劳动绿皮书:中国人口与劳动问题报告No.16[R].北京,2015.
[25]李建民.中国的人口新常态与经济新常态[J].人口研究,2015(01):3-13.
[26]世界银行,国务院发展研究中心.2030年的中国[M].北京:中国财政经济出版社,2013.
[27]佟贺丰,杨阳,王静宜等.中国绿色经济发展展望——基于系统动力学模型的情景分析[J].中国软科学,2015(06):20-34.
[28]理查德·库珀,许佳.2035年世界经济展望[J].东北亚论坛,2015(01):3-10.