空间实验室的风险识别与控制方法
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摘要
以天宫一号空间实验室风险识别与控制技术需求为牵引,对风险识别与控制方法的分阶段应用提出建议。针对空间实验室的重要风险和组合体特性,提出了的相对风险识别法和降级重构风险控制法,从相对风险的角度对空间实验室重大风险进行识别,在天宫一号无法对组合体实施控制时,用载人飞船接替天宫一号对空间实验室组合体进行控制。规避了风险识别结果波动过大的问题,在不增加设备冗余和其它舱段的前提下降低了系统风险。
Taking the risk identification and control technology of Tiangong space lab No. 1 as a traction, this paper puts forward some suggestions on the phased application of risk identification and control methods. In view of the important risks and the characteristics of space lab assemblies, the relative risk identification method and the downgraded reconstruction risk control method are proposed to identify the major risks of space laboratories from the perspective of relative risks. When Tiangong 1 is unable to control the assemblies, manned spacecraft is used to replace Tiangong 1 to control the space lab assemblies. It avoids the problem that the risk identification results fluctuate too much, and reduces the system risk without increasing equipment redundancy and other sections.
Taking the risk identification and control technology of Tiangong space lab No. 1 as a traction, this paper puts forward some suggestions on the phased application of risk identification and control methods. In view of the important risks and the characteristics of space lab assemblies, the relative risk identification method and the downgraded reconstruction risk control method are proposed to identify the major risks of space laboratories from the perspective of relative risks. When Tiangong 1 is unable to control the assemblies, manned spacecraft is used to replace Tiangong 1 to control the space lab assemblies. It avoids the problem that the risk identification results fluctuate too much, and reduces the system risk without increasing equipment redundancy and other sections.
引文
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[3] Perera J, Holsomback J. Use of Probabilistic Risk Assessments for The Space Station Program [C]. 2004 IEEE Aerospace Conference Proceedings. Gaithersburg: IEEE, 2004.
[4] Prassinos P G, Stamatelatos M G,Young J,et al. Constellation Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA): Design Consideration for The CEV [R]. OSMA-PRA-07-01,2006.
[5] 李健,栾家辉,刘春雷. 我国空间站工程量化风险评价工作探讨[J]. 载人航天, 2014,20(3):249-255. [Li Jian, Luan Jia-hui, Liu Chun-lei. Discussion on quantification risk assessment of chinese manned space station [J]. Manned Spaceflight, 2014,20(3):249-255.]
[6] Hamlin T L, Canga M A, Boyer R L, et al. 2009 Space Shuttle Probabilistic Risk Assessment Overview [C] 10th International Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management Conference (PSAM 10); Seattle: ESRA, 2010.
[7] Bigler M, Canga M A, Duncan G. Extravehicular Activity Probabilistic Risk Assessment Overview for Thermal Protection System Repair on The Hubble Space Telescope Servicing Mission [C]. 10th International Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management Conference (PSAM 10). Seattle: ESRA, 2010.
[8] Smith C A. Probabilistic risk assessment for the international space station [C]. Space-Flight Safety Conference. New York: ESA-NASA, 2002.
[9] 遇今,张海龙. 航天器研制风险管理过程及实施[J]. 质量与可靠性,2011(1):20-26. [Yu Jin, Zhang Hai-long. Risk management process and implementation of spacecraft development[J]. Quality And Reliability,2011(1):20-26.]
[10] 遇今,周苏闰.航天器全寿命周期风险因素分析及对策[J]. 质量与可靠性,2017(2):36-45. [Yu Jin, Zhou Su-run. Risk factors analysis and countermeasures of spacecraft life cycle [J]. Quality And Reliability,2017(2):36-45.]
[11] Jiang C, Li W X, Han X, et al. Structural reliability analysis based on random distributions with iinterval parameters[J]. Computers and Structures. 2011, 89: 2292-2302.
[12] NPR 8705. 5A Technical probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) procedures for safety and mission success for NASA programs and projects [S]. Office of Safety and Mission Assurance. 2010.
[13] 荣吉利,宋乾强,张涛,等. 冗余航天火工品装置可靠性评估方法及应用[J]. 宇航学报,2013,34(7):1021-1026. [Rong Ji-li, Song Qian-qiang, Zhang Tao, et al. Reliability assessment method for redundant aerospace pyrotechnic devices and its application [J]. Journal of Astronautic,2013,34(7):1021-1026.]
[14] 彭文胜,张建国,王丕东,等. 混合不确定信息航天机构可靠性综合分析方法[J]. 宇航学报,2015,36(5):596-604. [Peng Wen-sheng, Zhang Jian-guo, Wang Pi-dong, et al. Comperhensive reliability analysis of the aerospace mechanism with hybrid uncertainty information [J]. Journal of Astronautic,2015,36(5):596-604. ]
[15] 节永师,王伟,王功,等. 载人航天概率风险评价工程事件及其在空间应用中的前景分析[J]. 载人航天,2017,23(1):98-113. [Jie Yong-shi, Wang Wei, Wang Gong, et al. Engineering practice of probabilistic risk assessment in manned spaceflight and its prospect analysis in space application system [J]. Manned Spaceflight, 2017,23(1):98-113.]
[16] 郭筱曦,李力. “国际空间站”有望延寿至2024年[J]. 国际太空, 2014,6(426):42-48. [Guo Xiao-xi, Li Li. The international space station is expected to extend its life to 2024 [J]. Space International, 2014,6(426):42-48.]