基于多模式耦合的赣江流域设计暴雨估算
|
摘要
基于3种不同排放情景下LARS-WG天气发生器内嵌的6种大气环流模式结果,预估了21世纪3个时期赣江流域不同重现期下的设计暴雨值变化。研究表明,使用LARS-WG方法得到的暴雨系列,能得到可信的频率分析结果,基于贝叶斯模型平均方法的多模式耦合能降低预估结果的不确定性。赣江流域绝大多数站点未来设计暴雨值相对基准期减小,且变化幅度随重现期的大小而变化。设计暴雨增加或部分增加和减少的站点分别位于赣江流域上中游和中下游。在未来气候变化影响下,赣江流域按照我国现有规范计算的设计暴雨整体偏大。
The output data of six General Circulation Models under SRA1 B,SRA2 and SRB1 emission scenarios were downscaled by statistical downscaling model(LARS-WG) to predict the change of design rainstorms with different return periods of Ganjiang River Basin during three future periods.The results indicated that the reliable frequency analysis results can be obtained from rainstorm series generated by LARS-WG and the application of Bayesian Model Average can diminish the uncertainty of the estimation.Design rainstorms tend to decrease relative to the baseline period in most stations of the basin and the variation ranges change with return periods.The stations which exhibit overall increase or partial increase of design rainstorm are located in upper and middle reaches,while the rest stations which exhibit decrease are located in middle and lower reaches.Under the impact of future climate change,the design rainstorm in Ganjiang River Basin will be overall overestimated in accordance with our current standard.
The output data of six General Circulation Models under SRA1 B,SRA2 and SRB1 emission scenarios were downscaled by statistical downscaling model(LARS-WG) to predict the change of design rainstorms with different return periods of Ganjiang River Basin during three future periods.The results indicated that the reliable frequency analysis results can be obtained from rainstorm series generated by LARS-WG and the application of Bayesian Model Average can diminish the uncertainty of the estimation.Design rainstorms tend to decrease relative to the baseline period in most stations of the basin and the variation ranges change with return periods.The stations which exhibit overall increase or partial increase of design rainstorm are located in upper and middle reaches,while the rest stations which exhibit decrease are located in middle and lower reaches.Under the impact of future climate change,the design rainstorm in Ganjiang River Basin will be overall overestimated in accordance with our current standard.
引文
[1]张利平,杜鸿,夏军,等.气候变化下极端水文事件的研究进展[J].地理科学进展,2011,30(11):1370-1379.
[2]方建,杜鹃,徐伟,等.气候变化对洪水灾害影响研究进展[J].地球科学进展,2014,29(9):1086-1093.
[3]王苗,郭品文,邬昀,等.我国极端降水事件研究进展[J].气象科技,2012,40(1):79-86.
[4]张强,李剑锋,陈晓宏,等.基于Copula函数的新疆极端降水概率时空变化特征[J].地理学报,2011,66(1):3-12.
[5]陈子燊,路剑飞,刘曾美.广东极端降水的三参数概率分布模式对比[J].中山大学学报:自然科学版,2012,51(1):102-106.
[6]梁忠民,胡义明,王军.非一致性水文频率分析的研究进展[J].水科学进展,2011,22(6):864-871.
[7]张徐杰,林盛吉,马冲,等.Had CM3模式下钱塘江流域设计暴雨估算[J].水文,2013,33(1):21-26.
[8]张徐杰,许月萍,高希超,等.CCSM3模式下汉江流域设计暴雨计算[J].水力发电学报,2012,31(4):49-53.
[9]高涛,谢立安.近50年来中国极端降水趋势与物理成因研究综述[J].地球科学进展,2014,29(5):577-589.doi:10.11867/j.issn.1001-8166.2014.05.0577.
[10]陈鹏飞,樊建军,郑秋辉.推求暴雨强度公式的统计资料年限分析[J].节水灌溉,2009,(10):65-67.
[11]郭家力,郭生练,郭靖,等.鄱阳湖流域未来降水变化预测分析[J].长江科学院院报,2010,27(8):20-24.
[2]方建,杜鹃,徐伟,等.气候变化对洪水灾害影响研究进展[J].地球科学进展,2014,29(9):1086-1093.
[3]王苗,郭品文,邬昀,等.我国极端降水事件研究进展[J].气象科技,2012,40(1):79-86.
[4]张强,李剑锋,陈晓宏,等.基于Copula函数的新疆极端降水概率时空变化特征[J].地理学报,2011,66(1):3-12.
[5]陈子燊,路剑飞,刘曾美.广东极端降水的三参数概率分布模式对比[J].中山大学学报:自然科学版,2012,51(1):102-106.
[6]梁忠民,胡义明,王军.非一致性水文频率分析的研究进展[J].水科学进展,2011,22(6):864-871.
[7]张徐杰,林盛吉,马冲,等.Had CM3模式下钱塘江流域设计暴雨估算[J].水文,2013,33(1):21-26.
[8]张徐杰,许月萍,高希超,等.CCSM3模式下汉江流域设计暴雨计算[J].水力发电学报,2012,31(4):49-53.
[9]高涛,谢立安.近50年来中国极端降水趋势与物理成因研究综述[J].地球科学进展,2014,29(5):577-589.doi:10.11867/j.issn.1001-8166.2014.05.0577.
[10]陈鹏飞,樊建军,郑秋辉.推求暴雨强度公式的统计资料年限分析[J].节水灌溉,2009,(10):65-67.
[11]郭家力,郭生练,郭靖,等.鄱阳湖流域未来降水变化预测分析[J].长江科学院院报,2010,27(8):20-24.