2018年中国天然气发展述评及2019年展望
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摘要
在经历了2017年需求量井喷式增长之后,2018年中国天然气发展步履稳健。对2018年中国天然气产业链各环节发展过程中的技术经济指标和最新政策进行了回顾和分析,指出了其中的7大特点:(1)天然气勘探在四川盆地、塔里木盆地获得两大突破性进展,天然气产量稳步增长;(2) LNG引领天然气进口量大幅增长,进口量跃居世界第一;(3)天然气基础设施建设紧锣密鼓,管道互联互通获重大进展;(4)天然气需求淡季不淡,市场供需在"紧平衡"中平稳有序;(5)全方位多举措保供调峰收到成效,高峰期天然气供需波澜不惊;(6)居民用气价格改革破冰,价格市场化又出新举措;(7)天然气体制改革进程有条不紊。结论认为:2019年中国天然气将保持平稳平衡发展走势。其中,天然气产量将迎来近期最大增幅,天然气进口量还将不断增长,市场供需紧中有松,天然气产供储销体系建设扎实推进,天然气体制机制改革有序进行。
After blowout growth of natural gas demand in 2017, China's natural gas development in 2018 was robust. This paper reviews and analyzes the technological and economic indexes and the latest policies in each link of China's natural gas industry chain in 2018, and points out the following seven characteristics:(1) there are two major breakthroughs in natural gas exploration, and the natural gas production increases steadily;(2)LNG led the increase of natural gas import, and the volume of natural gas import leapt to the first in the world;(3) the construction of natural gas infrastructure is intense, and the interconnection of pipelines has made great progress;(4)the natural gas demand is not weak in the off-season, and the market supply and demand is steady and orderly in the "tight balance";(6) the natural gas pricing reform again get new progress, and the marketization pricing brings forth new measures;(7) natural gas system reform is orderly processing forward. The conclusion is that China's natural gas will maintain a steady and balanced development trend in 2019. Among them, natural gas production might have got the largest increase for recent years; natural gas imports will continue to grow; the tight situation between natural gas supply and demand might be relieved in a certain extent; natural gas production, supply, storage and marketing system construction will get solid progress; natural gas system and mechanism reform is pushed on orderly.
After blowout growth of natural gas demand in 2017, China's natural gas development in 2018 was robust. This paper reviews and analyzes the technological and economic indexes and the latest policies in each link of China's natural gas industry chain in 2018, and points out the following seven characteristics:(1) there are two major breakthroughs in natural gas exploration, and the natural gas production increases steadily;(2)LNG led the increase of natural gas import, and the volume of natural gas import leapt to the first in the world;(3) the construction of natural gas infrastructure is intense, and the interconnection of pipelines has made great progress;(4)the natural gas demand is not weak in the off-season, and the market supply and demand is steady and orderly in the "tight balance";(6) the natural gas pricing reform again get new progress, and the marketization pricing brings forth new measures;(7) natural gas system reform is orderly processing forward. The conclusion is that China's natural gas will maintain a steady and balanced development trend in 2019. Among them, natural gas production might have got the largest increase for recent years; natural gas imports will continue to grow; the tight situation between natural gas supply and demand might be relieved in a certain extent; natural gas production, supply, storage and marketing system construction will get solid progress; natural gas system and mechanism reform is pushed on orderly.
引文
[1]中华人民共和国国家统计局.国家数据[EB/OL].(2019-01-21)[2019-01-22]. http://www.stats.gov.cn/tjsj.
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[10]中华人民共和国国家发展和改革委员会.国家发展改革委关于全面深化价格机制改革的意见:发改价格[2017]1941号[EB/OL].(2017-11-8)[2019-01-20].http://www.ndrc.gov.cn/zcfb/zcfbtz/201711.
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[12]王富平,周娟,段小浪,等.我国如何实行天然气能量计量[J].天然气工业,2018,38(10):128-134.
[13]王富平,冯琦,崔陈东,等.中国天然气差别价格体系研究[J].天然气工业,2017,38(12):112-118.
[2]中华人民共和国自然资源部.自然资源公报[EB/OL].(2018-05-21)[2019-01-15]. http://www.mnr.gov.cn/sj/tjgb.
[3]中华人民共和国海关总署.统计月报[EB/OL].(2019-01-23)[2018-01-26]. http://www.customs.gov.cn/customs/302249/302274/302277/index.html.
[4]高芸,高钰杰,栾佳. 2017年中国天然气发展述评及2018年展望[J].天然气技术与经济,2018,12(1):1-7.
[5]金联创.天然气[EB/OL].(2019-01-12)[2019-01-20].http://www.315i.com.
[6]胡奥林,王小明.天然气供应安全及其应对策略[J].天然气工业,2008,28(10):125-129.
[7]王蓓,任姝艳,杨桂荣,等.中国天然气市场化改革的思考[J].天然气与石油,2017,35(6):1-7.
[8]王境北.中国石油将今冬部分天然气价格最高或上调40%[EB/OL].(2018-08-06)[2019-01-20]. http://finance.sina.com.cn/china/gncj.
[9]胡奥林,董清.中国天然气价格改革刍议[J].天然气工业,2015,35(4):99-106.
[10]中华人民共和国国家发展和改革委员会.国家发展改革委关于全面深化价格机制改革的意见:发改价格[2017]1941号[EB/OL].(2017-11-8)[2019-01-20].http://www.ndrc.gov.cn/zcfb/zcfbtz/201711.
[11]周娟,王庆,王馨,等.中国天然气体制改革进展与前瞻[J].天然气技术与经济,2018,12(6):72-76.
[12]王富平,周娟,段小浪,等.我国如何实行天然气能量计量[J].天然气工业,2018,38(10):128-134.
[13]王富平,冯琦,崔陈东,等.中国天然气差别价格体系研究[J].天然气工业,2017,38(12):112-118.