印度东北部基建动向及其对我国周边安全的影响
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摘要
历史、地理与政治因素导致印度东北部地区基础设施薄弱。近年来,印度政府正加强规划与推进东北部基础设施建设,并与"东向政策"对接,打造通往东南亚的"东大门"。印度东北部基建动向对我国周边安全产生双重影响,一方面,发展与稳定的东北部有益于我国周边安全;另一方面,印度在所谓"阿鲁纳恰尔邦"的基建项目挑战我国核心安全利益,在中印边界地区的基建活动对我国周边外交布局形成一定干扰。最后,印日在东北部基建项目上的合作,对我国周边安全局势增加了不稳定因素。面对这一局势,我国应密切关注并做好应对准备,在孟中印缅经济走廊框架下,加强与印度东北部的互联互通,并通过"中印+"合作模式,促进地区的稳定与发展。
Indian government is trying to promote infrastructure developments in the northeast and transform the region into a gate towards Southeast Asia. Infrastructure developments in northeast India may bring about a dual impacts on the security of China. A developed and stabilized northeast India is positive for the security of China; however, India's infrastructure projects in the so-called "Arunachal Pradesh" constitute a challenge to China; India-Japan cooperation in this region may add instability to surrounding region. China need to be prepared with various eventualities on the one hand while strengthen connectivity with northeast India under the framework of BCIM on another hand. " China-India Plus" model can be employed to enhance regional stability and development.
Indian government is trying to promote infrastructure developments in the northeast and transform the region into a gate towards Southeast Asia. Infrastructure developments in northeast India may bring about a dual impacts on the security of China. A developed and stabilized northeast India is positive for the security of China; however, India's infrastructure projects in the so-called "Arunachal Pradesh" constitute a challenge to China; India-Japan cooperation in this region may add instability to surrounding region. China need to be prepared with various eventualities on the one hand while strengthen connectivity with northeast India under the framework of BCIM on another hand. " China-India Plus" model can be employed to enhance regional stability and development.
引文
(1)[印]H.斯瑞坎斯著,蒋昂妤译:“东向行动政策、次区域互联互通项目与印度东北部地区”,《东南亚南亚研究》,2017年第4期,第100-105页。
(2)罗锡兵:“新时期印度军事战略调整对我西部地区周边安全的影响”,《南方论坛》,2018年第3期,第43-45页。
(3)杨晓萍:“印度“东向”中的东北部与次区域合作”,《亚太经济》,2014年第4期,第19页。
(4)任佳、蒋昂妤:“印度东北部社会经济状况及发展趋势---孟中印缅经济走廊社会文化调查”,《云南社会科学》,2018年第3期,第16页。
(1)林延明:“印度东北部地区与孟中印缅经济走廊”,《东南亚南亚研究》,2015年第3期,第10页。
(2)Suyash Desai,“ASEAN and India Converge on Connectivity,”The Dipolomat,Dec.19,2017,https:∥thediplomat.com/2017/12/asean-and-india-converge-on-connectivity/.
(3)Ministry of Development of North Eastern Region,“Peace,Progress and Prosperity in the North Eastern Region Vision2020,”Vol.1,2008,p.15,http:∥necouncil.gov.in/sites/default/files/about-us/Vision_2020.pd.
(4)Ministry of Development of North Eastern Region,Government of India,“Look East Policy and the North Eastern States”,http:∥www.mdoner.gov.in/content/aspects-of-lep.2011-02-15.
(5)杨晓萍:“印度东北部民族问题的政府治理及其启示”,《东南亚南亚研究》,2011年第4期,第66页。
(6)“Centre Approves Infrastructure Development for North East with 100%Funding,”Dec.15,2017,https:∥economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy/infrastructure/centre-approves-infra-infrastructure-development-for-north-eats-with-100-funding/articleshow/62087390.cms.
(1)Joy L.K.Pachuau,and Willem van Schendel,“Borderland Histories,Northeastern India:An Introduction,”Studies in History,Vol.32,No.1,p.1.
(2)任佳、蒋昂妤:“印度东北部社会经济状况及发展趋势---孟中印缅经济走廊社会文化调查”,《云南社会科学》,2018年第3期,第23页。
(3)Ministry of Development of North Eastern Region,“Peace,Progress and Prosperity in the North Eastern Region Vision2020,”Vol.2,2008,p.142,http:∥necouncil.gov.in/sites/default/files/about-us/Vision_2020.pd.
(4)Harini Balasubramanian,“A Look at Infrastructural Developments in North-Eastern States of India,”Proptiger,Sep.25,2018,https:∥www.proptiger.com/guide/post/a-look-at-infrastructural-developments-in-northeastern-states-of-india.
(5)Harini Balasubramanian,“A Look at Infrastructural Developments in North-Eastern States of India,”Proptiger,Sep.25,2018,https:∥www.proptiger.com/guide/post/a-look-at-infrastructural-developments-in-northeastern-states-of-india.
(1)Ministry of Development of North Eastern Region,“Peace,Progress and Prosperity in the North Eastern Region Vision2020,”Vol.2,2008,p.168,http:∥necouncil.gov.in/sites/default/files/about-us/Vision_2020.pd.
(2)“Vision Document for Digital North East Launched with Big Plans,”Economic Times,Aug.11,2018,https:∥economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/politics-and-nation/vision-document-for-digital-north-east-launched-with-big-plans/articleshow/65367304.cms.
(3)[美]布鲁斯·罗斯拉尔森主编:《2009年世界发展报告:重塑世界经济地理》,胡光宇等译,北京:清华大学出版社,2009年,第48-97页。
(4)[印]H.斯瑞坎斯著,蒋昂妤译:“东向行动政策、次区域互联互通项目与印度东北部地区”,《东南亚南亚研究》,2017年第4期,第100-105页。
(5)Subir Bhaumik,“‘Look East Through Northeast’:Challenges and Prospects for India,”Observer Research Foundation,ORF Occasional Paper,No.51,Jun.,2014,pp.14-15.
(1)Subir Bhaumik,“‘Look East Through Northeast’:Challenges and Prospects for India,”Observer Research Foundation,ORF Occasional Paper,No.51,Jun.,2014,p.13.
(2)凌胜利:“双重协调:中国的周边安全战略构建”,《国际安全研究》,2018年第1期,第40页。
(3)林延明:“印度东北部地区与孟中印缅经济走廊”,《东南亚南亚研究》,2015年第3期,第13-14页。
(4)Ministry of Development of North Eastern Region,“Peace,Progress and Prosperity in the North Eastern Region Vision2020,”voI.1,2008,pp.156-157,http:∥necouncil.gov.in/sites/default/files/about-us/Vision_2020.pd.
(5)“PM Modi Launches Three Key Projects in Arunachal Pradesh,”DD News,Feb.15,2018,http:∥ddnews.gov.in/national/pm-modi-visit-arunachal-and-tripura.
(6)Ministry of Development of North Eastern Region,“Peace,Progress and Prosperity in the North Eastern Region Vision2020,”Vol.2,2008,p.144;pp.161-162,http:∥necouncil.gov.in/sites/default/files/about-us/Vision_2020.pd.
(1)新华社:“印度边防部队在中印边界锡金段越界进入中国领土的事实和中国的立场”,《人民日报》,2017年8月3日,第1版。
(2)胡仕胜:“洞朗对峙危机与中印关系的未来”,《现代国际关系》,2017年第11期,第10-12页。
(3)叶海林:“中国崛起与次要战略方向挑战的应对---以洞朗事件后的中印关系为例”,《世界经济与政治》,2018年第4期,第106-128页。
(4)驻福冈总领馆经商室:“日印拟打造“亚洲经济走廊”,意在牵制中国”,中华人民共和国商务部,2014年1月20日,http:∥www.mofcom.gov.cn/article/i/jyjl/j/201401/20140100465469.shtml。
(5)李益波:“印度东北部地区:日本在深耕”,《世界知识》,2017年第17期,第35页。
(6)Ministry of External Affairs,Government of India,“India-Japan Joint Statement during Visit of Prime Minister of Japan to India:Toward A Free,Open and Prosperous Indo-Pacific,”Sep.14,2017,http:∥www.mea.gov.in/bilateraldocuments.htm?dtl/28946/indiajapan+joint+statement+during+visit+of+prime+minister+of+japan+to+india+september+14+2017.
(1)Takema Sakamoto,“For Promotion of Intra-Regional Connectivity:India-Japan Partnership for Economic Development in the Northeast,”Mar.20,2018,https:∥www.jica.go.jp/india/english/office/others/c8h0vm00009ylo4c-att/presentations_18.pdf.
(2)刘稚、黄德凯:“地缘政治权利结构冲突下的孟中印缅经济走廊建设”,《南亚研究》,2018年第1期,第30页。
(3)罗圣荣、聂娇:“印度视角下的孟中印缅经济走廊建设”,《南亚研究》,2018年第3期,第9-13页。
(4)任佳:“孟中印缅地区经济合作与经济走廊建设构想”,《东南亚南亚研究》,2014年第1期,第56-57页。
(5)姚遥,贺先青:“孟中印缅经济走廊建设的现状及前景”,《现代国际关系》,2018年第8期,第46-48页。
(1)Subir Bhaumik,“‘Look East Through Northeast’:Challenges and Prospects for India,”Observer Research Foundation,ORF Occasional Paper,No.51,Jun.,2014,p.6.
(2)罗锡兵:“新时期印度军事战略调整对我西部地区周边安全的影响”,《南方论坛》,2018年第3期,第43-45页。
(3)杨晓萍:“印度“东向”中的东北部与次区域合作”,《亚太经济》,2014年第4期,第19页。
(4)任佳、蒋昂妤:“印度东北部社会经济状况及发展趋势---孟中印缅经济走廊社会文化调查”,《云南社会科学》,2018年第3期,第16页。
(1)林延明:“印度东北部地区与孟中印缅经济走廊”,《东南亚南亚研究》,2015年第3期,第10页。
(2)Suyash Desai,“ASEAN and India Converge on Connectivity,”The Dipolomat,Dec.19,2017,https:∥thediplomat.com/2017/12/asean-and-india-converge-on-connectivity/.
(3)Ministry of Development of North Eastern Region,“Peace,Progress and Prosperity in the North Eastern Region Vision2020,”Vol.1,2008,p.15,http:∥necouncil.gov.in/sites/default/files/about-us/Vision_2020.pd.
(4)Ministry of Development of North Eastern Region,Government of India,“Look East Policy and the North Eastern States”,http:∥www.mdoner.gov.in/content/aspects-of-lep.2011-02-15.
(5)杨晓萍:“印度东北部民族问题的政府治理及其启示”,《东南亚南亚研究》,2011年第4期,第66页。
(6)“Centre Approves Infrastructure Development for North East with 100%Funding,”Dec.15,2017,https:∥economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy/infrastructure/centre-approves-infra-infrastructure-development-for-north-eats-with-100-funding/articleshow/62087390.cms.
(1)Joy L.K.Pachuau,and Willem van Schendel,“Borderland Histories,Northeastern India:An Introduction,”Studies in History,Vol.32,No.1,p.1.
(2)任佳、蒋昂妤:“印度东北部社会经济状况及发展趋势---孟中印缅经济走廊社会文化调查”,《云南社会科学》,2018年第3期,第23页。
(3)Ministry of Development of North Eastern Region,“Peace,Progress and Prosperity in the North Eastern Region Vision2020,”Vol.2,2008,p.142,http:∥necouncil.gov.in/sites/default/files/about-us/Vision_2020.pd.
(4)Harini Balasubramanian,“A Look at Infrastructural Developments in North-Eastern States of India,”Proptiger,Sep.25,2018,https:∥www.proptiger.com/guide/post/a-look-at-infrastructural-developments-in-northeastern-states-of-india.
(5)Harini Balasubramanian,“A Look at Infrastructural Developments in North-Eastern States of India,”Proptiger,Sep.25,2018,https:∥www.proptiger.com/guide/post/a-look-at-infrastructural-developments-in-northeastern-states-of-india.
(1)Ministry of Development of North Eastern Region,“Peace,Progress and Prosperity in the North Eastern Region Vision2020,”Vol.2,2008,p.168,http:∥necouncil.gov.in/sites/default/files/about-us/Vision_2020.pd.
(2)“Vision Document for Digital North East Launched with Big Plans,”Economic Times,Aug.11,2018,https:∥economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/politics-and-nation/vision-document-for-digital-north-east-launched-with-big-plans/articleshow/65367304.cms.
(3)[美]布鲁斯·罗斯拉尔森主编:《2009年世界发展报告:重塑世界经济地理》,胡光宇等译,北京:清华大学出版社,2009年,第48-97页。
(4)[印]H.斯瑞坎斯著,蒋昂妤译:“东向行动政策、次区域互联互通项目与印度东北部地区”,《东南亚南亚研究》,2017年第4期,第100-105页。
(5)Subir Bhaumik,“‘Look East Through Northeast’:Challenges and Prospects for India,”Observer Research Foundation,ORF Occasional Paper,No.51,Jun.,2014,pp.14-15.
(1)Subir Bhaumik,“‘Look East Through Northeast’:Challenges and Prospects for India,”Observer Research Foundation,ORF Occasional Paper,No.51,Jun.,2014,p.13.
(2)凌胜利:“双重协调:中国的周边安全战略构建”,《国际安全研究》,2018年第1期,第40页。
(3)林延明:“印度东北部地区与孟中印缅经济走廊”,《东南亚南亚研究》,2015年第3期,第13-14页。
(4)Ministry of Development of North Eastern Region,“Peace,Progress and Prosperity in the North Eastern Region Vision2020,”voI.1,2008,pp.156-157,http:∥necouncil.gov.in/sites/default/files/about-us/Vision_2020.pd.
(5)“PM Modi Launches Three Key Projects in Arunachal Pradesh,”DD News,Feb.15,2018,http:∥ddnews.gov.in/national/pm-modi-visit-arunachal-and-tripura.
(6)Ministry of Development of North Eastern Region,“Peace,Progress and Prosperity in the North Eastern Region Vision2020,”Vol.2,2008,p.144;pp.161-162,http:∥necouncil.gov.in/sites/default/files/about-us/Vision_2020.pd.
(1)新华社:“印度边防部队在中印边界锡金段越界进入中国领土的事实和中国的立场”,《人民日报》,2017年8月3日,第1版。
(2)胡仕胜:“洞朗对峙危机与中印关系的未来”,《现代国际关系》,2017年第11期,第10-12页。
(3)叶海林:“中国崛起与次要战略方向挑战的应对---以洞朗事件后的中印关系为例”,《世界经济与政治》,2018年第4期,第106-128页。
(4)驻福冈总领馆经商室:“日印拟打造“亚洲经济走廊”,意在牵制中国”,中华人民共和国商务部,2014年1月20日,http:∥www.mofcom.gov.cn/article/i/jyjl/j/201401/20140100465469.shtml。
(5)李益波:“印度东北部地区:日本在深耕”,《世界知识》,2017年第17期,第35页。
(6)Ministry of External Affairs,Government of India,“India-Japan Joint Statement during Visit of Prime Minister of Japan to India:Toward A Free,Open and Prosperous Indo-Pacific,”Sep.14,2017,http:∥www.mea.gov.in/bilateraldocuments.htm?dtl/28946/indiajapan+joint+statement+during+visit+of+prime+minister+of+japan+to+india+september+14+2017.
(1)Takema Sakamoto,“For Promotion of Intra-Regional Connectivity:India-Japan Partnership for Economic Development in the Northeast,”Mar.20,2018,https:∥www.jica.go.jp/india/english/office/others/c8h0vm00009ylo4c-att/presentations_18.pdf.
(2)刘稚、黄德凯:“地缘政治权利结构冲突下的孟中印缅经济走廊建设”,《南亚研究》,2018年第1期,第30页。
(3)罗圣荣、聂娇:“印度视角下的孟中印缅经济走廊建设”,《南亚研究》,2018年第3期,第9-13页。
(4)任佳:“孟中印缅地区经济合作与经济走廊建设构想”,《东南亚南亚研究》,2014年第1期,第56-57页。
(5)姚遥,贺先青:“孟中印缅经济走廊建设的现状及前景”,《现代国际关系》,2018年第8期,第46-48页。
(1)Subir Bhaumik,“‘Look East Through Northeast’:Challenges and Prospects for India,”Observer Research Foundation,ORF Occasional Paper,No.51,Jun.,2014,p.6.