基于故障数据的某型导弹失效风险排序方法
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摘要
以某型导弹寿命预测为研究背景,按专业将该型导弹分为弹体、动力系统、电子电气设备等8个分系统,采用FTA-FMMEA方法分别对其进行失效模式和机理分析,并引入严酷度等级和失效模式发生概率等级,构建失效模式风险评价模型,对导弹各分系统的失效危害度进行定量分析。根据服役期间导弹现场失效数据并结合先验信息,提出了基于Bayes估计的各失效模式发生概率求取方法,给出了导弹各分系统的失效排序,确定了导弹薄弱环节,为后续贮存寿命预估提供依据。
In the background of the study on a certain type of missile, according to the professional, the missilewas divided into eight subsystem, such as projectile, engine systems, electronic and electrical equipment, etc.Adopting FTA and FMMEA methods, the failure modes and mechanisms were analyzed. The severity level andoccurrence probability level of failure modes were introduced to construct the failure mode risk assessmentmodel, the failure hazardous degree of the missile's sub-systems was quantitatively analyzed. According tothe missile site failure data during service and combined with prior information, and based on the Bayesian es-timation, the calculating method of occurrence probability level of each failure mode was put forward, the fail-ure sorting sequence of missile sub-systems was given and the weak links were determined, and providing sup-port for the subsequent prediction of storage life.
In the background of the study on a certain type of missile, according to the professional, the missilewas divided into eight subsystem, such as projectile, engine systems, electronic and electrical equipment, etc.Adopting FTA and FMMEA methods, the failure modes and mechanisms were analyzed. The severity level andoccurrence probability level of failure modes were introduced to construct the failure mode risk assessmentmodel, the failure hazardous degree of the missile's sub-systems was quantitatively analyzed. According tothe missile site failure data during service and combined with prior information, and based on the Bayesian es-timation, the calculating method of occurrence probability level of each failure mode was put forward, the fail-ure sorting sequence of missile sub-systems was given and the weak links were determined, and providing sup-port for the subsequent prediction of storage life.
引文
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[16]TIBBITS MATTHEW M,HARAN MURALI,LIECHTY JOHN C.Parallel multivariate slice sampling[J].Statistics and Computing,2011,21(3):415-430.
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[18]黄哲.质量问题分析中巴雷特方法的应用[J].机械工业标准化与质量,2002(4):16.HUANG ZHE.Appllication of Barrett method in the analisis of quality problem[J].Standardization and Application of Mechanical Industry,2002(4):16.(in Chinese)
[2]马凌,李俊,赵韶平,等.面向导弹贮存延寿的PHM技术研究与工程应用[J].装备环境工程,2014,11(4):42-48.MA LING,LI JUN,ZHAO SHAOPING,et al.PHM technique studies and engineering applications faced to missile storage and life extension[J].Equipment Enviromental Engineering,2014,11(4):42-48.(in Chinese)
[3]袁峰,陈邦兴,祝玉军,等.基于模糊逻辑的安全苛求系统失效模式与影响分析研究[J].计算机应用与软件,2011,28(12):14-18.YUAN FENG,CHEN BANGXING,ZHU YUJUN,et al.Failure mode and effect analysis of safety critical system based on fuzzy logic[J].Computer Applications and Software,2011,28(12):14-18.(in Chinese)
[4]袁心成,杨智明,俞洋,等.复杂电子装备故障模式及影响分析方法研究[J].电子测量技术,2016,39(4):156-159.YUAN XINCHENG,YANG ZHIMING,YU YANG,et al.Failure mode and effect analysis method for complex electronics sysytem[J].Electronic Measurement Technology,2016,39(4):156-159.(in Chinese)
[5]袁宏杰,张泽,吴浩.整机产品失效机理危害度定量分析方法[J].电子测量技术,2016,39(4):156-159.YUAN HONGJIE,ZHANG ZE,WU HAO.Quantitative analysis of failure mechanism of machine product failure[J].Electronic Measurement Technology,2016,39(4):156-159.(in Chinese)
[6]张仕念,吴勋,颜诗源,等.贮存使用环境对导弹性能的影响机理[J].装备环境工程,2014,11(5):17-22.ZHANG SHINIAN,WU XUN,YAN SHIYUAN,et al.Mechanism of impact of storage environment on missile performance[J].Equipment Enviromental Engineering,2014,11(5):17-22.(in Chinese)
[7]STEFAN HEINZ,FRANK BALLE,GUNTRAM WAGNER.Analysis of fatigue properties and failure mechanisms of Ti5Al4V in the very cycle fatigue regime using ultrasonic technology and 3D laser scanning vibrometry[J].Ultrosonic,2013,53(8):1433-1440.
[8]焦胜博,程礼,陈煊,等.Ti-6AL-4V钛合金振动弯曲超高周疲劳及寿命预测模型研究[J].实验力学,2016,31(6):730-740.JIAO SHENGBO,CHENG LI,CHEN XUAN,et al.On the very high cycle fatigue and life prediction model of Ti-6Al-4V titanium alloy subjected to vibration bending[J].Journal of Experimental Mechanics,2016,31(6):730-740.(in Chinese)
[9]曾佳俊,周学杰,吴军,等.金属材料大气腐蚀试验相关性与寿命预测研究现状[J].腐蚀科学与防护技术,2015,27(1):90-94.ZENG JIAJUN,ZHOU XUEJIE,WU JUN,et al.Research status of correlation and life prediction of atmospheric corrosion tests for metal materials[J].Corrosion Science and Protetion Technology,2015,27(1):90-94.(in Chinese)
[10]周堃,钱翰博,周漪,等.导弹非金属薄弱环节贮存寿命快速评估[J].装备环境工程,2014,12(6):148-152.ZHOU KUN,QIAN HANBO,ZHOU YI,et al.Fast evaluation of storage life of missile nonmetal weak links[J].Equipment Enviromental Engineering,2014,12(6):148-152.(in Chinese)
[11]刘飞,陈文华,钱萍,等.导弹折叠展开机构工作可靠性的Monte Carlo模拟计算方法研究[J].工程设计学报,2012,19(1):16-19.LIU FEI,CHEN WENHUA,QIAN PING,et al.Research of Monte Carlo simulation calculation method on working reliability for folding and deploying mechanism of missile[J].Chinese Journal of Engineering Design,2012,19(1):16-19.(in Chinese)
[12]杨薇薇,杨红娜,吴晓青.天线罩材料研究进展[J].现代技术陶瓷,2013(2):3-7.YANG WEIWEI,YANG HONGNA,WU XIAOQING.Research Progress of Radome Materials[J].Modern Technology Ceramics,2013(2):3-7.(in Chinese)
[13]WANG JIAN HUA,YUAN LI.Properties of hierarchical bayesian and e bayesian estimations of the failure probability in zero-failure data[J].Chinese Journal of Engineering Mathematics,2010,27(1):78-84.
[14]VAN DORP J RENE,MAZZUCHI THOMAS A.A general bayes weibull inference model for accelerated life testing[J].Reliability Engineering&System Safety,2005,90(2):140-147.
[15]谭源源,张春华,陈循.基于Dirichlet先验分布的加速寿命试验的Bayes分析[J].宇航学报,2010,31(6):1678-1684.TAN YUANYUAN,ZHANG CHUNHUA,CHENXUN.Bayesian analysis of dirichlet prior distribution-based accelarated life test[J].Journal of Astronautics,2010,31(6):1678-1684.(in Chinese)
[16]TIBBITS MATTHEW M,HARAN MURALI,LIECHTY JOHN C.Parallel multivariate slice sampling[J].Statistics and Computing,2011,21(3):415-430.
[17]CHEN HONGSHU,BAKSHI BHAVIK R,GOEL PREM K.Bayesian latent variable regression viagibbs sampling:methodology and practical aspects[J].Journal of Chemometrics,2007,21(12):578-591.
[18]黄哲.质量问题分析中巴雷特方法的应用[J].机械工业标准化与质量,2002(4):16.HUANG ZHE.Appllication of Barrett method in the analisis of quality problem[J].Standardization and Application of Mechanical Industry,2002(4):16.(in Chinese)