车辆供给和距离效应对公共自行车借车行为影响
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摘要
为了研究公共自行车系统中自行车供给和自行车位置分布的距离效应对出行者借车行为的影响程度,选取华盛顿哥伦比亚特区的Capital Bikeshare公共自行车系统的高频数据,建立了出行者离散选择模型来最大化目标区域内人口的随机效用。其中,自行车供给效应包括借车时自行车供给边际效应、还车时车位可得性效应,距离效应包括单个车站距离效应、车站间距离效应。采用内外嵌套迭代算法对参数进行了求解。结果表明:出行者到自行车点步行距离每减少10%,系统中出借行为会增加2.9%;车站间最近距离每减少10%,出借行为会增加1%;在不增加车位情况下,增加自行车供给不会对出借行为造成明显影响;而车位供给每增加10%,出借行为会增加2.3%。
In order to investigate the impact degrees of bike supply and distance effect of bike location distribution on the bike-borrowing behavior,we adopted the high-frequency data of Capital Bikeshare system of Washington,D. C.,and built a discrete choice model of commuter,and maximized the random utility of population in the target area. The supply effect of bikes includes the marginal effect of bike supply when borrowing bikes,the availability effect of parking docks when returning bikes. The distance effect includes the distance effect of single station and the distance effect among stations. We adopted the nested iterative algorithm to calculate parameters. The result shows that( 1) when the walking distance of commuter to the bike station decreases by 10%,the use of bikes of the system will increase 2. 9%;( 2) when the distance from the nearest other station decreases by 10%,the use will increase 1%;( 3) increasing the supply of bikes has no distinct impact on use of bikes if not increasing the supply of parking docks;( 4) when number of parking docks increases by 10%,the use will increase 2. 3%.
In order to investigate the impact degrees of bike supply and distance effect of bike location distribution on the bike-borrowing behavior,we adopted the high-frequency data of Capital Bikeshare system of Washington,D. C.,and built a discrete choice model of commuter,and maximized the random utility of population in the target area. The supply effect of bikes includes the marginal effect of bike supply when borrowing bikes,the availability effect of parking docks when returning bikes. The distance effect includes the distance effect of single station and the distance effect among stations. We adopted the nested iterative algorithm to calculate parameters. The result shows that( 1) when the walking distance of commuter to the bike station decreases by 10%,the use of bikes of the system will increase 2. 9%;( 2) when the distance from the nearest other station decreases by 10%,the use will increase 1%;( 3) increasing the supply of bikes has no distinct impact on use of bikes if not increasing the supply of parking docks;( 4) when number of parking docks increases by 10%,the use will increase 2. 3%.
引文
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[29]CRAIG C S,GHOSH A,MCLAFFERTY S.Models of the Retail Location Process:A Review[J].Journal of Retailing,1984,60(1):5-36.
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[31]MURRAY A T,WU Xiao-lan.Accessibility Tradeoffs in Public Transit Planning.Journal of Geographical Systems[J].Journal of Geographical Systems,2003,5(1):93-107.
[32]CRAIG C S,GHOSH A,MCLAFFERTY S.Models of the Retail Location Process:A Review[J].Journal of Retailing,1984,60(1):5-36.
[33]KABRA A,BELAVINA E,GIROTRA K.Bike-Share Systems:Accessibility and Availability[R].Chicago:The University of Chicago Booth School of Business,2011.
[34]HAUSER J R,WERNERFELT B.An Evaluation Cost Model of Consideration Sets[J].Journal of Consumer Research,1990,16(4):393-408.
[35]ROBERTS J H,LATTIN J M.Development and Testing of a Model of Consideration Set Composition[J].Journal of Marketing Research,1991,28(4):429-440.
[36]ANDREWS R L,SRINIVASAN T C.Studying Consideration Effects in Empirical Choice Models Using Scanner Panel Data[J].Journal of Marketing Research,1995,32(1):30-41.
[37]BERRY S T.Estimating Discrete-choice Models of Product Differentiation[J].Rand Journal of Economics,1994,25(2):242-262.
[2]VOGEL P,GREISER T,MATTFELD D C,et al.Understanding Bike-sharing Systems Using Data Mining:Exploring Activity Patterns[J].Procedia Social and Behavioral Sciences,2011,20(6):514-523.
[3]RAVIV T,KOLKA O.Optimal Inventory Management of a Bike-sharing Station[J].IIE Transactions,2013,45(10):1077-1093.
[4]BENCHIMOL M,BENCHIMOL P,CHAPPERT B,et al.Balancing the Stations of a Self Service“Bike Hire”System[J].RAIRO-Operations Research,2011,45(1):37-61.
[5]CHEMLA D,MEUNIER F,CALVO R W.Bike Sharing Systems:Solving the Static Rebalancing Problem[J].Discrete Optimization,2013,10(2):120-146.
[6]ROMERO J P,LBEAS A,MOURA J L,et al.A Simulation-optimization Approach to Design Efficient Systems of Bike-sharing[J].Procedia-Social and Behavioral Sciences,2012,54(4):646-655.
[7]BROACH J,GLIEBE J,DILL J.Development of a Multiclass Bicyclist Route Choice Model Using Revealed Preference Data[J].International Conference on Travel Behavior Research,2004,50(1):15-33.
[8]STINSON M A,BHAT C R.An Analysis of Commuter Bicyclist Route Choice Using a Stated Preference Survey[C]//TRB 2003 Annual Meeting.[S.l.]:TRB,2003.
[9]PARKIN J,ROTHERAM J.Design a Speeds and Acceleration Characteristics of Bicycle Traffic or Use in Planning,Design and Appraisal[J].Transport Policy,2010,17(5):335-341.
[10]SENER I N,ELURU N,BHAT C R.An Analysis of Bicycle Route Choice Preferences in Texas[J].US.Transportation Research Board,2009,36(5):511-539.
[11]DILL J,CARR T.Bicycle Commuting and Facilities in Major U.S.Cities:If You Build Them,Commuters Will Use Them[J].Transportation,2003,1828:116-123.
[12]O’BRIEN O,CHESHIRE J,BATTY M.Mining Bicycle Sharing Data for Generating Insights into Sustainable Transport Systems[J].Journal of Transport Geography,2014,34(219):262-273.
[13]DEMAIO P.Bike-sharing:History,Impacts,Models of Provision,and Future[J].Journal of Public Transportation,2009,12(4):41–56.
[14]PADGHAM M.Human Movement is Both Diffusive and Directed[J].Plos One,2012,7(5):37754-37754.
[15]JENSEN P,ROUQUIER J B,OVTRACHT N,et al.Characterizing the Speed and Paths of Shared Bicycles in Lyon[J].Transportation Research Part D:Transport and Environment,2010,15(8):522-524.
[16]ANUPINDI R,DADA M,GUPTA S.Estimation of Consumer Demand with Stock-out Based Substitution:An Application to Vending Machine Products[J].Marketing Science,1998,17(4):406-423.
[17]BERRY S,PAKES A.Automobile Prices in Market Equilibrium[J].Econometrica,1995,63(63):841-90.
[18]DAVIS P.Spatial Competition in Retail Markets:Movie Theaters[J].Rand Journal of Economics,2006,37(4):964-982.
[19]HUFF D L.Defining and Estimating a Trading Area[J].Journal of Marketing,1964,28(28):34-38.
[20]LEDERMAN R,OLIVARES M,VAN RYZIN G.Identifying Competitors in Markets with Fixed Product Offerings[J].Ssrn Electronic Journal,2009,12(2):202-219.
[21]BROWN L N,GANS A,MANDELBAUM A,et al.Statistical Analysis of A Telephone Call Center:A Queueing-science Perspective[J].Journal of the American Statistical Association,2005,100(469):36-50.
[22]IBRAHIM R,WHITT W.Wait-time Predictors for Customer Service Systems with Time-varying Demand and Capacity[J].Operations Research,2011,59(5):1106-1118.
[23]ALLON G,FEDERGRUEN A,PIERSON M.How Much is a Reduction of Your Customers’Wait Worth?An Empirical Study of the Fast-Food Drive-Thru Industry Based on Structural Estimation Methods[J].Manufacturing&Service Operations Management,2011,9(4):489-507.
[24]MUSALEM A,OLIVARES M,BRADLOW E T,et al.Structural Estimation of the Effect of Out-of-stocks[J].Management Science,2010,56(7):1180-1197.
[25]EL-GENEIDY A,GRIMSRUD M,WASFI R,et al.New Evidence on Walking Distances to Transit Stops:Identifying Redundancies and Gaps using Variable Service Areas[J].Transportation,2014,41(1):193-210.
[26]ZHAO F,CHOW L F,LI M T,et al.Forecasting Transit Walk Accessibility:Regression Model Alternative to Buffer Method[J].Transportation Research Record,2003,1835:34-41.
[27]ALSHALALFAH B,SHALABY A.Case Study:Relationship of Walk Access Distance to Transit with Service,Travel,and Personal Characteristics[J].Journal of Urban Planning&Development,2007,133(2):114-118.
[28]AGRAWAL A W,SCHLOSSBERG M,IRVIN K,et al.How Far,By Which Route,and Why?A Spatial Analysis of Pedestrian Preference[J].Journal of Urban Design,2007,13(1):81-98.
[29]CRAIG C S,GHOSH A,MCLAFFERTY S.Models of the Retail Location Process:A Review[J].Journal of Retailing,1984,60(1):5-36.
[30]ALLEN W B,LIU D,SINGER S.Accessibility Measures of U.S.Metropolitan Areas[J].Transportation Research Part B:Methodological,1993,27(6):439-449.
[31]MURRAY A T,WU Xiao-lan.Accessibility Tradeoffs in Public Transit Planning.Journal of Geographical Systems[J].Journal of Geographical Systems,2003,5(1):93-107.
[32]CRAIG C S,GHOSH A,MCLAFFERTY S.Models of the Retail Location Process:A Review[J].Journal of Retailing,1984,60(1):5-36.
[33]KABRA A,BELAVINA E,GIROTRA K.Bike-Share Systems:Accessibility and Availability[R].Chicago:The University of Chicago Booth School of Business,2011.
[34]HAUSER J R,WERNERFELT B.An Evaluation Cost Model of Consideration Sets[J].Journal of Consumer Research,1990,16(4):393-408.
[35]ROBERTS J H,LATTIN J M.Development and Testing of a Model of Consideration Set Composition[J].Journal of Marketing Research,1991,28(4):429-440.
[36]ANDREWS R L,SRINIVASAN T C.Studying Consideration Effects in Empirical Choice Models Using Scanner Panel Data[J].Journal of Marketing Research,1995,32(1):30-41.
[37]BERRY S T.Estimating Discrete-choice Models of Product Differentiation[J].Rand Journal of Economics,1994,25(2):242-262.