我国入境旅游内生增长机制及路径研究
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摘要
随着我国旅游业由高速旅游增长阶段转向优质旅游发展阶段,持续上升三十多年的入境旅游正在面临诸多外生触发因素的不利影响。如何最大程度地降低这些不利影响,使遭遇发展瓶颈的入境旅游实现持续稳定的内生性增长,是目的地管理实践中面临的严峻问题。借助内生增长理论的基本原理,构建了我国入境旅游的内生增长机制模型,同时对内生性增长的内涵、利益相关者和增长限制进行了深入分析。在充分调研入境旅游市场的基础上,提炼并验证了研究假设,得出旅游服务、退税因素、旅游产品、产品价格、销售渠道、品牌形象宣传和签证因素是我国入境旅游内生增长的7大要素。结合内生增长理论和所构建的内生增长机制,提出并分析了我国入境旅游内生增长的4条发展路径。
With China's tourism industry turning from rapid growth to high-quality development,its inbound tourism,which was on the rise for more than 30 years,was faced with an unfavorable impact of many exogenous factors. How to minimize these negative impacts and achieve a sustained and steady growth of inbound tourism was a problem faced by practitioners in the management of destinations. Based on endogenous growth theory,this paper constructed the mechanism of endogenous growth of inbound tourism in China,and analyzed the growth connotation,stakeholders and growth constraints. Through the verification of research hypotheses,seven influential factors of endogenous growth of China' s inbound tourism were extracted,including tourist service,tax rebate,tourism product,product price,sales channel,brand image promotion and visa. In addition,this paper analyzed the four developmental paths of endogenous growth of China's inbound tourism based on the theory of endogenous growth and constructed the mechanism.
With China's tourism industry turning from rapid growth to high-quality development,its inbound tourism,which was on the rise for more than 30 years,was faced with an unfavorable impact of many exogenous factors. How to minimize these negative impacts and achieve a sustained and steady growth of inbound tourism was a problem faced by practitioners in the management of destinations. Based on endogenous growth theory,this paper constructed the mechanism of endogenous growth of inbound tourism in China,and analyzed the growth connotation,stakeholders and growth constraints. Through the verification of research hypotheses,seven influential factors of endogenous growth of China' s inbound tourism were extracted,including tourist service,tax rebate,tourism product,product price,sales channel,brand image promotion and visa. In addition,this paper analyzed the four developmental paths of endogenous growth of China's inbound tourism based on the theory of endogenous growth and constructed the mechanism.
引文
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[2]宋慧林,蒋依依,王元地.政府旅游公共营销的实现机制和路径选择——基于扎根理论的一个探索性研究[J].旅游学刊,2015,30(1)∶22-31.
[3]姚延波,侯平平.“一带一路”倡议下我国入境旅游产品开发新思路[J].旅游学刊,2017,32(6)∶5-6.
[4]李幼龙,胡敏,马耀峰.新疆入境与区域经济耦合协调度分析[J].资源开发与市场,2013,29(4)∶418-421.
[5]武春友,谢风媛.入境旅游发展与经济增长的非线性关系—基于门限面板数据模型的实证研究[J].商业经济与管理,2010,(2)∶76-83.
[6]吴良平,张健.危机事件下中国入境旅游的受损格局与影响机制研究[J].旅游科学,2016,30(5)∶37-51.
[7]乔宁宁,陈建宝.宏观经济波动对我国入境旅游发展的影响分析[J].旅游学刊,2013,28(2)∶44-51.
[8]朱,吴旗韬.中国省际及主要旅游城市旅游规模[J].地理学报,2005,60(6)∶919-927.
[9]刘宏盈,马耀峰.基于旅游流转移视角的云南入境旅游发展历程分析[J].旅游学刊,2008,(7)∶23-27.
[10]张佑印,顾静,马耀峰,黄河清.北京入境旅游流分级扩散模式及动力机制分析[J].人文地理,2012,(5)∶120-127.
[11]南宇,杨永春,史蜻.西北五省区入境旅游客源市场动态演化结构分析研究[J].经济地理,2011,31(9)∶1558-1565.
[12]高军,吴必虎,马耀峰.旅华英国游客O-D旅游客源动力机制研究[J].旅游学刊,2011,26(2)∶35-40.
[13]郑鹏,马耀峰,王洁洁,李君轶,杨敏.基于“推—拉”理论的美国旅游者旅华流动影响因素研究[J].人文地理,2010,(5)∶112-117.
[14]马晓龙,张晓宇.影视旅游者动机细分及其形成机制新西兰霍比特村案例[J].旅游学刊,2013,28(8)∶111-117.
[15]曲颖,吕兴洋.实现精准目标市场识别的美国入境游客细分[J].旅游学刊,2017,32(1)∶22-31.
[16]Bob Mc Kercher,Edith L L,Hui Terrorism. Economic Uncertainty and Outbound Travel from HongKong[J]. Journal of Travel&Tourism Marketing,2004,15(2)∶99-115.
[17]张晨,高峻,丁培毅.雾霾天气对潜在海外游客来华意愿的影响基于目的地形象和风险感知理论[J].旅游科学,2017,32(12)∶58-67.
[18]孙根年,李红,周功梅.香港社会对内地自由行及入境旅游激增的情绪反应[J].经济地理,2016,36(2)∶182-188.
[19]Isabel P. Albaladejo Pina,Maria Pilar Martinez-Garcia. An Endogenous Growth Model of International Tourism[J]. Tourism Economics,2013,19(3)∶509-529.
[20]吴易风,朱勇,内生增长理论的新发展[J].中国人民大学学报,2000,(5)∶25-32.
[21]Paul M Romer. Endogenous Technological Change[J]. Journal of Political Economy,1990,98(5)∶71-102.
[22]Gene M Grossman,Elhanan Helpman. Innovation and Growth in the Global Economy[Z]. Mit Press,1991∶43-83.
[23]Gene M Grossman,Elhanan Helpman. Quality Ladders in the Theory of Growth[J]. Review of Economic Studies,1991,58(1)∶43-61.
[24]Gary S Becker,Kevin M Murphy. The Division of Labor Coordination Costs and Knowledge[J]. The Quarterly Journal of Economics,1992,107(4)∶1137-1160.
[25]彭国华,内生增长理论发展综述[J].经济前沿,2009,(3)∶94-99,118.