基于AHP的克孜勒苏河流域生态安全评价及预测
|
摘要
为了更加高效地改善克孜勒苏河流域生态安全环境,基于AHP技术的支持,选取研究区域经济生态安全系统、自然生态安全系统、社会生态安全系统中的15个指标构建生态安全评估指标体系,对克孜勒苏河流域2008-2020年的生态安全进行评价与预测。结果表明:该流域生态安全处于上升状态,增长情况并不明显。预测至2020年克孜勒苏河流域生态安全将持续处于较安全状态,但是并未达到安全状态。从戈壁产业和天然草场保护方面提出对策建议。
In order to improve the ecological security environment in the Kezilsu River watershed more effectively,based on the support of AHP technology,15 indicators including the economic ecological security system,the natural ecological security system and the social ecological security system are selected to construct the ecological security assessment index system. The system evaluates and predicts the ecological security of the Kizilsu River watershed from 2008 to 2020.The results show that the ecological security of the watershed is on the rise,but the growth is not obvious. It is predicted that ecological security in the Kizilsu River watershed will continue to be safer by 2020,but it has not reached a safe state. This paper proposes countermeasures for the protection of the Gobi industry and natural pastures.
In order to improve the ecological security environment in the Kezilsu River watershed more effectively,based on the support of AHP technology,15 indicators including the economic ecological security system,the natural ecological security system and the social ecological security system are selected to construct the ecological security assessment index system. The system evaluates and predicts the ecological security of the Kizilsu River watershed from 2008 to 2020.The results show that the ecological security of the watershed is on the rise,but the growth is not obvious. It is predicted that ecological security in the Kizilsu River watershed will continue to be safer by 2020,but it has not reached a safe state. This paper proposes countermeasures for the protection of the Gobi industry and natural pastures.
引文
[1]吕建树,吴泉源,张祖陆,等.基于RS和GIS的济宁市土地利用变化及生态安全研究[J].地理科学,2012,32(8):928-935.
[2]黄宝强,刘青,胡振鹏,等.生态安全评价研究述评[J].长江流域资源与环境,2012,21(S2):150-156.
[3]徐媛,鲍雅静,李政海,等.巴里坤湖流域生态安全评价及预测研究[J].大连民族大学学报,2017,19(5):442-444.
[4]左伟,周慧珍,王桥.区域生态安全评价指标体系选取的概念框架研究[J].土壤,2003(1):2-7.
[5]SPIEGEL J M,BONET M,YASSI A,et al.Developing ecosystem health indicators in Centro Habana:A community-based approach[J].Ecosystem Health,2001,7(1):15-26.
[6]REES W E.Revisiting carrying capacity:Area-based indicators of sustainability[J].Population and Environment,1996,17(3):195-218.
[7]肖笃宁,陈文波,郭福良.论生态安全的基本概念和研究内容[J].应用生态学报,2002(3):354-358.
[8]WACKERNAGELM,ONISTOL,BELLOP.National natural capitalac counting with the ecological foot printconcept[J].Ecological Economics,1999,29:375-390.
[9]WACKERNAGELM,LEWABL,HANSSONC.Evaluating the use of natural capital with ecological foot print;application in Sweden and subregions[J].Ambio,1999,28(7):604-612.
[10]李宗杰,田青,宋玲玲,等.基于水土保持的甘肃省生态安全评价[J].生态学杂志,2015,34(5):1420-1426.
[11]彭月,李昌晓,李健.2000-2012年宁夏黄河流域生态安全综合评价[J].资源科学,2015,37(12):2480-2490.
[12]郝时远.我国西部地区生态安全堪忧——以青海省生态环境问题为例[J].中国经贸导刊,2005(22):46-47.
[13]李琳琳.克孜河流域径流预测及水量分配研究[D].乌鲁木齐:新疆农业大学,2015.
[14]储佩佩,付梅臣.中国区域土地生态安全与评价研究进展[J].中国农学通报,2014,30(11):160-164.
[2]黄宝强,刘青,胡振鹏,等.生态安全评价研究述评[J].长江流域资源与环境,2012,21(S2):150-156.
[3]徐媛,鲍雅静,李政海,等.巴里坤湖流域生态安全评价及预测研究[J].大连民族大学学报,2017,19(5):442-444.
[4]左伟,周慧珍,王桥.区域生态安全评价指标体系选取的概念框架研究[J].土壤,2003(1):2-7.
[5]SPIEGEL J M,BONET M,YASSI A,et al.Developing ecosystem health indicators in Centro Habana:A community-based approach[J].Ecosystem Health,2001,7(1):15-26.
[6]REES W E.Revisiting carrying capacity:Area-based indicators of sustainability[J].Population and Environment,1996,17(3):195-218.
[7]肖笃宁,陈文波,郭福良.论生态安全的基本概念和研究内容[J].应用生态学报,2002(3):354-358.
[8]WACKERNAGELM,ONISTOL,BELLOP.National natural capitalac counting with the ecological foot printconcept[J].Ecological Economics,1999,29:375-390.
[9]WACKERNAGELM,LEWABL,HANSSONC.Evaluating the use of natural capital with ecological foot print;application in Sweden and subregions[J].Ambio,1999,28(7):604-612.
[10]李宗杰,田青,宋玲玲,等.基于水土保持的甘肃省生态安全评价[J].生态学杂志,2015,34(5):1420-1426.
[11]彭月,李昌晓,李健.2000-2012年宁夏黄河流域生态安全综合评价[J].资源科学,2015,37(12):2480-2490.
[12]郝时远.我国西部地区生态安全堪忧——以青海省生态环境问题为例[J].中国经贸导刊,2005(22):46-47.
[13]李琳琳.克孜河流域径流预测及水量分配研究[D].乌鲁木齐:新疆农业大学,2015.
[14]储佩佩,付梅臣.中国区域土地生态安全与评价研究进展[J].中国农学通报,2014,30(11):160-164.