气候变化和人类活动影响下的北大河流域径流变化分析
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摘要
基于北大河流域周边台站的气象水文数据,综合运用趋势分析、Mann-Kendall突变检测和Hurst指数(R/S分析法)等方法,从气候变化和人类活动两个方面分析了流域径流的变化趋势及原因,重点探讨了冰川变化对河川径流的影响。结果表明:1950s-2015年,北大河流域整体上呈现增温增湿的变化趋势,其中升温趋势显著,而降水增加不明显。气候变化在山区和平原区特点不同,山区增温增湿的幅度明显高于平原区。气温和降水年际变化序列都具有持续性,未来气温将持续快速上升,降水将微弱增加。径流的年际变化呈现不显著的减少趋势,减少率为0. 11×10~8m~3/10a,且未出现明显的突变点。流域内人类活动对径流的影响极小,气候变化是引起径流变化的主要原因。在1980s-1990s,山区降水的阶段性减少以及冰川处于相对稳定状态造成河流径流的持续减少,并在1990s后期达到最少;2000年以来,持续增温造成冰川融水急剧增加成为近期径流增加的主要原因,气候转型引起的降水增加也在一定程度上加剧径流增加。
Based on the hydro-meteorological data,combined with the methods of trend analysis,Mann-Kendall mutation detection,and Hurst index,the runoff change was analyzed under climate change and human activities,and the influence of glacier change was also discussed. The results indicated that the climate was changed to warming and wetting during 1950 s-2015. The temperature increased significantly,but the precipitation increased slightly. It was different for climate change between the mountains and plains. The increase of temperature and precipitation in mountains were obviously more than these in plains. In the future,the temperature will continue to rise rapidly,and precipitation will increase lightly. The annual runoff series showed a slightly decreasing trend with no obvious mutation point,at a rate of 0. 11 × 108 m~3/10 a. The impact of human activities on runoff change was minimal,and climate change was the main causes. From 1980 s to 1990 s,the periodic reduction of precipitation in mountain areas and the relatively stable state of glaciers caused continuous reduction of runoff,which reached the minimum in the late 1990 s; After 2000 s,the runoff increased significantly,the rapid increase of glacier meltwater caused by ongoing warming was the main reason,the increase in precipitation caused by climate transition also led to an increase in runoff.
Based on the hydro-meteorological data,combined with the methods of trend analysis,Mann-Kendall mutation detection,and Hurst index,the runoff change was analyzed under climate change and human activities,and the influence of glacier change was also discussed. The results indicated that the climate was changed to warming and wetting during 1950 s-2015. The temperature increased significantly,but the precipitation increased slightly. It was different for climate change between the mountains and plains. The increase of temperature and precipitation in mountains were obviously more than these in plains. In the future,the temperature will continue to rise rapidly,and precipitation will increase lightly. The annual runoff series showed a slightly decreasing trend with no obvious mutation point,at a rate of 0. 11 × 108 m~3/10 a. The impact of human activities on runoff change was minimal,and climate change was the main causes. From 1980 s to 1990 s,the periodic reduction of precipitation in mountain areas and the relatively stable state of glaciers caused continuous reduction of runoff,which reached the minimum in the late 1990 s; After 2000 s,the runoff increased significantly,the rapid increase of glacier meltwater caused by ongoing warming was the main reason,the increase in precipitation caused by climate transition also led to an increase in runoff.
引文
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[20]陈辉,李忠勤,王璞玉,等.近年来祁连山中段冰川变化[J].干旱区研究,2013,30(4):588-593.
[21]怀保娟,李忠勤,孙美平,等.近50年黑河流域的冰川变化遥感分析[J].地理学报,2014,69(3):365-377.
[22]沈永平,刘时银,甄丽丽,等.祁连山北坡流域冰川物质平衡波动及其对河西水资源的影响[J].冰川冻土,2001,23(3):244-250.
[23]Yao T D,Thompson L,Yang W,et al. Different glacier status with atmospheric circulations in Tibetan Plateau and surroundings[J]. Nature Climate Change,2012,2(9):663-667.
[24]Wang S,Yao T D,Tian L D,et al. Glacier mass variation and its effect on surface runoff in the Beida River catchment during 1957-2013[J].Journal of Glaciology,2017,63(239):1-12.
[2]孟秀敬,张士峰,张永勇.河西走廊57年来气温和降水时空变化特征[J].地理学报,2012,67(11):1482-1492.
[3]Wang B,Bao Q,Hoskins B,et al. Tibetan Plateau warming and precipitation changes in East Asia[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2008,35,L14702.
[4]陈德亮,徐柏青,姚檀栋,等.青藏高原环境变化科学评估:过去、现在与未来[J].科学通报,2015,60(32):3025-3035.
[5]Zhang D L,Huang J P,Guan X D,et al. Long-term trends of precipitable water and precipitation over the Tibetan Plateau derived from satellite and surface measurements[J]. Journal of Quantitative Spectroscopy and Radiative Transfer,2013,122,64-71.
[6]蓝永超,丁永建,沈永平,等.河西内陆河流域出山径流对气候转型的响应[J].冰川冻土,2003,25(2):188-192.
[7]施雅风,沈永平,李栋梁,等.中国西北气候由暖干向暖湿转型的特征和趋势探讨[J].第四纪研究,2003,23(2):152-164.
[8]谢昌卫,丁永建,刘时银.近50年来长江-黄河源区气候及水文环境变化趋势分析[J].生态环境,2004(13):520-523.
[9]王根绪,程国栋.近50 a来黑河流域水文及生态环境的变化[J].中国沙漠,1998,18(3):233-238.
[10]王建,李硕.气候变化对中国内陆干旱区山区融雪径流的影响[J].中国科学:地球科学,2005,35(7):664-670.
[11]张晓晓,张钰,徐浩杰,等.河西走廊三大内陆河流域出山径流变化特征及其影响因素分析[J].干旱区资源与环境,2014,28(4):66-72.
[12]王宗太,刘潮海,尤根祥,等.中国冰川目录I-祁连山区[M].甘肃:中国科学院兰州冰川冻土研究所,1981:85-119.
[13]杨针娘.中国冰川水资源[M].兰州:甘肃科学技术出版社,1991:115-152.
[14]符淙斌,王强.气候突变的定义和检测方法[J].大气科学,1992,16(4):482-493.
[15]魏凤英.现代气候统计诊断与预测技术[M].北京:气象出版社,2008:62-79.
[16]Wallis J R,Matalas N C. Small sample properties of H and K-Estimations of the Hurst coefficient[J]. Water Resource Research,1970,16(6):1583-1594.
[17]姚檀栋,姚治君.青藏高原冰川退缩对河水径流的影响[J].自然杂志,2010,32(1):4-8.
[18]刘时银,沈永平,孙文新,等.祁连山西段小冰期以来的冰川变化研究[J].冰川冻土,2002,24(3):227-233.
[19]颜东海,李忠勤,高闻宇,等.祁连山北大河流域冰川变化遥感监测[J].干旱区研究,2012,29(2):245-250.
[20]陈辉,李忠勤,王璞玉,等.近年来祁连山中段冰川变化[J].干旱区研究,2013,30(4):588-593.
[21]怀保娟,李忠勤,孙美平,等.近50年黑河流域的冰川变化遥感分析[J].地理学报,2014,69(3):365-377.
[22]沈永平,刘时银,甄丽丽,等.祁连山北坡流域冰川物质平衡波动及其对河西水资源的影响[J].冰川冻土,2001,23(3):244-250.
[23]Yao T D,Thompson L,Yang W,et al. Different glacier status with atmospheric circulations in Tibetan Plateau and surroundings[J]. Nature Climate Change,2012,2(9):663-667.
[24]Wang S,Yao T D,Tian L D,et al. Glacier mass variation and its effect on surface runoff in the Beida River catchment during 1957-2013[J].Journal of Glaciology,2017,63(239):1-12.