基于灰色层次分析法的空管运行亚健康评价研究
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摘要
空管运行中存在着许多导致系统处于亚健康状态的安全隐患,建立评估指标体系对空管运行的亚健康状态进行诊断,对于提高空管安全管理水平具有重要意义。在前人对空管运行安全管理理论研究的基础上,兼顾空管运行实际情况,从人员、设备、环境、管理和运行5个方面构建了空管运行亚健康评估指标体系。基于灰色层次分析法建立了针对空管运行亚健康的灰色层次评价模型,并利用模型对所构建的空管运行亚健康评估指标体系进行综合评价。结果表明:指标体系各因素符合实际情况,各指标因素权重排序切实可靠;由层次分析法计算得出的权重可知,空管运行亚健康评估中间层指标因素按照权重大小的排序为:人员因素、管理因素、运行因素、环境因素和设备因素。
There are many hidden dangers in the operation of air traffic control that cause the system to be in a sub-health state. Establishing an evaluation index system to diagnose the sub-health status of air traffic control is of great significance for improving the safety management level of air traffic control. On the basis of previous studies on the safety management theory of air traffic control,and taking into account the actual situation of air traffic control,the sub-health assessment index system for air traffic control was constructed from five aspects: personnel,equipment,environment,management and operation. Based on the grey analytic hierarchy process,a gray level evaluation model for sub-health of air traffic control was established,and the model was used to comprehensively evaluate the sub-health evaluation index system of air traffic control. The results of the comprehensive evaluation show that the factors of the indicator system are in line with the actual situation,and the weighting of each index factor is reliable. The weights calculated by the analytic hierarchy process show that the middle-level index factors to be considered in the sub-health assessment of air traffic control are ranked according to the weights: personnel factors,management factors,operational factors,environmental factors and equipment factors.
There are many hidden dangers in the operation of air traffic control that cause the system to be in a sub-health state. Establishing an evaluation index system to diagnose the sub-health status of air traffic control is of great significance for improving the safety management level of air traffic control. On the basis of previous studies on the safety management theory of air traffic control,and taking into account the actual situation of air traffic control,the sub-health assessment index system for air traffic control was constructed from five aspects: personnel,equipment,environment,management and operation. Based on the grey analytic hierarchy process,a gray level evaluation model for sub-health of air traffic control was established,and the model was used to comprehensively evaluate the sub-health evaluation index system of air traffic control. The results of the comprehensive evaluation show that the factors of the indicator system are in line with the actual situation,and the weighting of each index factor is reliable. The weights calculated by the analytic hierarchy process show that the middle-level index factors to be considered in the sub-health assessment of air traffic control are ranked according to the weights: personnel factors,management factors,operational factors,environmental factors and equipment factors.
引文
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[2] FELICI M. Modeling safety case evolution-examples from the air traffic management reliability[J]. Engineering&System Safety,2004,86(3):269-284.
[3] PETER S. Risk assessment&mitigation in ATM[J].Safety Science,2006,44(7):629-655.
[4] SYBERT H S,HENK A P B,BAKKER G J. Systemic accident risk assessment in air traffic by monte carlo stimulation[J]. Safety Science,2009,47(2):238-249.
[5]罗帆,贾贵娟,陈高明,等.空管安全风险评估指标体系的优化[J].中国安全科学学报,2009,19(8):115-120.
[6]杜红兵,李晖,袁乐平,等.基于Fuzzy-ANP的空管安全风险评估研究[J].中国安全科学学报,2010,20(12):79-85.
[7]罗帆,刘堂卿.基于N-K模型的空中交通安全耦合风险分析[J].武汉理工大学学报(信息与管理工程版),2011,33(2):267-270.
[8]罗帆,刘小平,杨智.基于系统动力学的空管安全风险情景预警决策模型仿真[J].系统工程,2014,32(1):139-145.
[9]张豫翔,王肖戎,吴明功,等.基于模糊层次分析法和云模型的非常规情况下空管运行风险评估[J].安全与环境学报,2016,16(4):42-47.
[10]姚登凯,王晴昊,甘旭升.改进模糊Petri网在空管安全风险评估中的应用[J].安全与环境学报,2018,18(2):413-417.
[11]姜兰,杨志东,张向晖,等.民航华东地区空管不安全事件分类统计研究[J].民航管理,2017(8):80-83.
[12]杨昌其,李远.空管单位安全能力评估指标体系构建研究[J].综合运输,2017,39(7):70-74.
[13]陈芳,陈道刚,韩攀峰,等.空管安全运行保障能力模型实证研究[J].中国安全科学学报,2013,23(11):113-119.
[14]梁曼,戴福青,田佳,等.民航空管设施、设备系统安全评价研究[J].安全与环境学报,2013,13(4):249-253.