试析新疆能源消耗对碳排放的驱动机制
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摘要
文章基于IPAT和STIRPAT模型构建新疆能源消耗对碳排放驱动模型,利用新疆1990-2013年间的时间序列数据,分析新疆能源消耗对碳排放的驱动机制。定量分析结果表明:在地方政府大力发展经济和民众生活福利稳步提升的双重驱动下,城镇化率持续增长牵动的能源消耗总量提升、居民富裕程度和消费水平不断提高导致的能源消耗增长、以第二产业占主体的能源消耗结构是新疆碳排放持续增加的主要驱动力,同时,加大风电能消耗比重、优化能源消耗结构是抑制新疆碳排放增长的主要驱动力。因此需大力提倡低碳生活理念、推广新能源使用、积极优化能源消耗结构、建设低碳循环产业园区,以实现新疆低碳经济发展。
This paper discussed the driving mechanism of Xinjiang energy consumption on carbon emissions.Through building the model of Xinjiang energy consumption on carbon emissions based on The IPAT and STIRPAT model,1990-2013 years of time series data,analysis of Xinjiang energy consumption on carbon emissions driving mechanism. Quantitative analysis results show that in the local government vigorously develop economic and public welfare steadily under the dual drive,the urbanization rate of sustained growth affects the total energy consumption promotion,wealthier residents and the level of consumption continues to increase in energy consumption growth,the secondary industry accounted for the main energy consumption structure are the main driving force of the Xinjiang carbon emissions continue to rise. At the same time,increase wind power can consumption proportion,optimize energy consumption structure is the inhibition of the main driving force of growth in carbon emissions. Therefore,must vigorously promote the green low-carbon life philosophy,actively optimize the structure of energy consumption,the construction of low carbon industrial park to promote resource-based industrial low carbon transformation,to achieve low carbon economic development in Xinjiang.
This paper discussed the driving mechanism of Xinjiang energy consumption on carbon emissions.Through building the model of Xinjiang energy consumption on carbon emissions based on The IPAT and STIRPAT model,1990-2013 years of time series data,analysis of Xinjiang energy consumption on carbon emissions driving mechanism. Quantitative analysis results show that in the local government vigorously develop economic and public welfare steadily under the dual drive,the urbanization rate of sustained growth affects the total energy consumption promotion,wealthier residents and the level of consumption continues to increase in energy consumption growth,the secondary industry accounted for the main energy consumption structure are the main driving force of the Xinjiang carbon emissions continue to rise. At the same time,increase wind power can consumption proportion,optimize energy consumption structure is the inhibition of the main driving force of growth in carbon emissions. Therefore,must vigorously promote the green low-carbon life philosophy,actively optimize the structure of energy consumption,the construction of low carbon industrial park to promote resource-based industrial low carbon transformation,to achieve low carbon economic development in Xinjiang.
引文
[1]李磊.新疆经济发展中碳排放变动的因素分析[J].干旱区资源与环境,2011,(8):7-12.
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[7]王士轩,孙慧.新疆碳排放、能源消费与经济增长关系的实证研究[J].科技管理研究,2015,(18):221-224.
[8]E hrlich.P.R,Holdren.J.P.Impact of population and growth[J].Science,1971,(2):26-36.
[9]Waggoner.P.E,Jesse.H.A.A framework for sustainability science[J].Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences,USA,2002,99.
[10]Dietz.Rethinking the environmental impacts of population,affluence and technology[J].Human Ecology Review.1994,(1):17-29.
[11]Kaya.Impact of Carbon Dioxide Emission on GNP growth[R].Paris:IPCC,1989:89-102.
[12]刘心,杨晨.辽宁省碳排放、能源消费与经济增长的实证研究[J].数学的实践与认识,2013,(3):69-78.
[13]韩茜.新疆碳排放现状及低碳经济发展面临的问题[OL].新疆统计局网站,http://xjyj.xjdrc.gov.cn/content.jsp?type=news.
[14]新疆风电市场前景如何?[OL].北极星风力发电网.http://news.bjx.com.cn/html/20140627/522360.shtml.
[2]张利,雷军.1952-2008年新疆能源消费的碳排放变化及影响因素分析[J].资源科学,2012,(1):42-49.
[3]顾成军,龚新蜀.1999-2009年新疆能源消费碳排放的因素分解及实证研究[J].地域研究与开发,2012,(3):140-144.
[4]姚露露,高志刚.新疆能源消费、经济增长与碳排放关系的实证研究[J].新疆大学学报(哲学·人文社会科学版),2012,(1):20-24.
[5]何昭丽,孙慧.新疆能源消费碳排放现状及因素分解分析[J].资源与产业,2013,(4):75-81.
[6]何剑,董丹丹.新疆能源消费、碳排放与经济增长——基于近似和脱钩关系的实证[J].科技管理研究,2014,(17):236-240.
[7]王士轩,孙慧.新疆碳排放、能源消费与经济增长关系的实证研究[J].科技管理研究,2015,(18):221-224.
[8]E hrlich.P.R,Holdren.J.P.Impact of population and growth[J].Science,1971,(2):26-36.
[9]Waggoner.P.E,Jesse.H.A.A framework for sustainability science[J].Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences,USA,2002,99.
[10]Dietz.Rethinking the environmental impacts of population,affluence and technology[J].Human Ecology Review.1994,(1):17-29.
[11]Kaya.Impact of Carbon Dioxide Emission on GNP growth[R].Paris:IPCC,1989:89-102.
[12]刘心,杨晨.辽宁省碳排放、能源消费与经济增长的实证研究[J].数学的实践与认识,2013,(3):69-78.
[13]韩茜.新疆碳排放现状及低碳经济发展面临的问题[OL].新疆统计局网站,http://xjyj.xjdrc.gov.cn/content.jsp?type=news.
[14]新疆风电市场前景如何?[OL].北极星风力发电网.http://news.bjx.com.cn/html/20140627/522360.shtml.